Unpleasant Assad

Neither military bases nor weapons contracts are so important for Moscow. The main thing is not to yield to the pressure of the West

The activation of the military efforts of Russia in Syria caused a nervous and sharp reaction in the West. In the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the idea that Moscow is interested only in the struggle against the Islamic State group (IG)**. However, in the West they are sure: the true goal of Russian actions is to protect the regime of Bashar al -Assad. Question: From whom? Answer: First of all, from IG*, which has recently been taking the city outside the city. However, the possible actions of the Russian troops against IG* are not such a simple thing as amateurs believe.

Fight with IG *? How? In Syria, there is no such front line where, on the one hand, Assad’s troops are located, and on the other - IG*. Nothing like this: these two forces enter into clashes with each other in a maximum of two or three areas. In most cases of the government army, either the detachments of the “moderate”, secular opposition (the Free Army of Syria) or Islamists from the “Ang Nusra”, “Ahrar al-Sham” and other groups are opposed, each of them is at the same time by the IG*.

How can Russia help Assad? Aviation strikes? But IG* is subjected to aviation bombing several international coalition states, and this gives little. Why? IG*, whose militants learned to be scattered by settlements during air raids, is a Sunni group, and almost all Arab countries are mainly populated by Sunnis. Air strikes are usually fraught with the death of a large number of civilians. Anyone who mercilessly defeat terrorists at such an expensive cost will restore almost the entire Arab world against himself. None of the heads of the state, participants in the coalition, including, of course, Barack Obama President, does not want to go down in history as a killer of children. Putin will not want this.

Therefore, of course, the Russian leadership, of course, does not plan to wage a real war in Syria, on dozens of fronts. Its goal is to strengthen the military presence in order to maintain Assad regime at least one fifth of the country, which it now really controls. To save - not because Moscow is so necessary for the port of Tartus or the sale of our weapons - buyers in the world is so important so important. The stubborn cling to Assad carries a different subtext.

The principle of principle , firstly, in the paradigm of a strict confrontation with the West (and primarily with America), which has already become the Kremlin’s foreign policy line, concessions and compromises are excluded. For more than four years, Moscow steadily firmly insisted about the inadmissibility of the overthrow of the "legal president of Syria." Changing the position would now mean in the eyes of the whole world, including our population, only one thing is a concession under American pressure.

Secondly, injection of tension around Syria for the Kremlin is useful in its own way. Now the West is confused, everyone is puzzling over the question: what did Putin come up with after Crimea and Donbass? Isn't this the continuation of the same aggressive line? It was here that Moscow is rated: calm down, we, on the contrary, strive for a peaceful decision of the crisis, we really want the destruction of IG*, but we are disappointed in the coalition created by the Americans and intend to initiate a new, more effective one. True, with one condition: Bashar Assad must remain in power. They can say: why not organize the transfer of power from Assad to someone, say, from his associates-thereby the main stone of the stumbling block between Russia and the West in the Syrian issue would be eliminated. The reciprocal argument is ready: it will not work, for the Alawite community, which is headed by the Assad clan, Bashar has become a symbol: if it is removed, a chain reaction may begin, which will end with the collapse of the regime and extermination of the alavites.

Thirdly, if the crisis situation around Syria allows “under the noise” to build two new military bases (sea and air) in this country-just in case, you never know what-why not use it? The population of Russia will support such a step: not all the same Americans to create a base for themselves? Moreover, the population will be explained: you see, we are for peace in the Middle East, but the West again showed our true face. As a result, the patriotic mobilization of the masses will rise to a new level. Which, as they say, was originally required.

* The Islamic State group (IG) is prohibited in Russia.

Photo: AFP Photo/Louai Beshara