Intoxication with a summary

The victorious notifications of the General Staff about the successes of Russian aviation in Syria are very reminiscent of the reports of the Swinformburas of the first days of the Great Patriotic War. For example, what was reported on June 23, 1941: “All the enemy attacks in the Vladimir-Volyn and Brodsky directions were repelled with large losses for him. On the Shaulyai and Rava-Russian directions, the enemy, who had wedged into our territory in the morning, was broken down and thrown out for the state border in the afternoon; The enemy’s tanks were destroyed ... Our aviation waged successful battles, covering the troops, airfields, settlements and military facilities from the enemy’s air attacks and contributing to the counterattacks of ground -based troops. On June, we were captured by about five thousand German soldiers and officers. "

But what is reported today about Syria. In the first three days of fighting, the Russian air group in Syria made 60 sorties and struck 50 objects of terrorists of the Islamic State. The head of the main operational department of the General Staff, Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov said: “The strikes were struck around the clock from the Khmeimim air base to the entire depth of Syria. Over three days, we managed to undermine the material and technical base of the terrorists and significantly reduce their combat potential ... Intelligence fixes that the militants leave the regions controlled by them ... In their ranks, a panic began and a panic began in their ranks. Deserting. At the same time, the blows, of course, were only pointed, and exclusively command posts, warehouses were affected, including with the “hunger belts” (which are not used in Syria - B.S.), camps and combat equipment of terrorists.

In general, in three days, Russian aircraft only 60 with sorties achieved what the International Coalition, led by the United States, failed to achieve during the year of struggle, making more than 7 thousand sorties against ISIS objects. Know ours!

All these brave reports, of course, had and have extremely little in common with reality. As for the first days of the Great Patriotic War, there is no need to explain. And regarding the reports of Syria, I note that, as the observers located there, out of 60 Russian raids, only one entered the object of the “Islamic state” - its capital Rakka, and even then affected mainly the civilian population. The rest of the raids were directed against the objects of the temperate Islamic opposition, which is the greatest danger to Assad, as it enjoys the support of the United States and American allies. And the victims of these raids also became mainly the civilian population. The fact is that Russian aviation mainly uses uncontrollable bombs and missiles, such as high-explosive FAB-250. Controlled K-29L missiles with laser guidance are also used. But they are effective only from relatively small heights, at which the aircraft can be affected by the Air Defense Rustarians captured from the Syrian and Iraqi armies. In addition, this missile is very sensitive to the weather and is ineffective against disguised goals. So, in Chechnya, where cloudy weather prevails, the use of the X-29L was limited to four launches. It is unlikely to be allowed to act from small heights to Russian pilots. Putin does not need at all that captured Russian pilots be then demonstrated to the whole world. According to the Syrian opposition, one of the Russian aircraft has already been shot down. But to find out if this is so, we will not be able to soon. Russian losses are classified, and Moscow will be recognized as the fact of the destruction of an airplane or helicopter only when prisoners from his crew are in the hands of the enemy.

The objects of ISIS and other groups fighting against Assad are not just point, but super -tacious. They have no aircraft and airfields, very few tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, and they are used alone. The warehouses are also small and dispersed. And the leaders of the groups and field commanders are constantly changing their location. The rebels act in small units of several dozen people. Sot detachments of several hundred people are created for a short time for attacks for specific goals. In order to apply effective air strikes for all this objects constantly changing their position, operational data of agent intelligence are needed. And Assad almost did not have such agents left by the rebels. Alavites are either killed there or expel, and there is no other support for the Syrian dictator.

If ISIS could be defeated by air raids, the coalition led by the United States would have long been done. She has much more aircraft than that of the Russian contingent and Air Force Assad combined, and guidance systems are better. But so far, the successes of allied aviation are quite modest - it has not reached any fracture in the fight against the Islamists. And Putin probably understands that the war in Syria alone cannot win. The problem of Assad is not a lack of aviation support, but in an acute shortage of soldiers. Of the 320,000 pre -war Syrian army, he left no more than 120 thousand people, and up to half of them are Alawit militias. Of the allies of the Syrian president, only several thousand Hezbollah fighters, who also suffered heavy losses. The number of groups opposing Assad is unknown, but probably in the aggregate they are no less than the government army. Their replenishment resources are incomparable. Alavites are only 10-15% of the population of Syria, and the Arabs -Sunni, which make up the core of opposition groups, is more than 50%. It is possible that due to large losses, Assad felt a lack of his pilots and he asked Putin to send not only planes, but also Russian pilots. By the way, Syrian pilots in this war should be more effective than Russian, because they know the area. And in order to only preserve those 20% of the territory of Syria, which are now controlled by Assad, it will probably be necessary to reinforce it at least 10-15 thousand Russian soldiers.

But Putin is still not ready for terrestrial operations in Syria. In order to try to restore Assad’s control over the whole country, there may be few 100 thousandth groups. Therefore, Putin’s Syrian adventure looks like an attempt not so much to prevent Assad’s military defeat as to put on the West in order to achieve concessions on Syrian and Ukrainian issues. The presence of Russian aircraft in the Syrian sky itself complicates the work of allies aviation, as it increases the risk of clashes in the air. At the same time, if the allied aircraft are fired by Russian aircraft, this can only be a provocation of Moscow. After all, it is well known that ISIS and other rebels have no aviation.

Putin can leave Syria at any moment when he wishes. That is why Russian propaganda tries, convincing the audience that Russian aviation broke the ISIS Range in three days. This is so that the President of Russia at any moment can announce that the mission has been fulfilled and pilots can be returned home. And then the Syrian government troops will hold an indicative offensive, having repelled a small city from the rebels. They were capable of this before the Russian intervention, but to keep the captured for a long time is not able to keep due to lack of strength. But, as before the start of Russian bombing, the Assad regime was in a difficult but far from hopeless position, so their cessation will not lead to its immediate fall. Moreover, receiving Russian weapons, Assad can stay long. And in any case, his fall will require the military intervention of the coalition at the head of the United States, since when the current Syrian president is the risk of the massacre and the deportation of the Syrian minorities - Alavites, Christians, Druzov. However, such an intervention is incredible under the current American president, which experiences a mystical fear of American military intervention anywhere and has no strategy in the Middle East. Therefore, the Syrian conflict will last a long time.