"Coalition operation in Syria has fallen"

Interview with Ian Kirns - Expert on International Security

A week ago, Russia began a military campaign in Syria. Officially, Russian aviation bombing the Islamic State and other terrorist groups. In the West, it is believed that the actions of the Russian army are primarily aimed not to fight the jihadists, but to support the head of Syria Bashar al -Assad. Syrian anti -government rebels claim that Russia attacks their positions. The Associated Press, citing its own sources, reported that the Pentagon may try to protect his Syrian allies by military means. Ian Kirns, British International Security Specialist and Director of the Analytical Center of the European Community of Leaders (European Leadership Network; unites former politicians, diplomats and military from European countries), told a special correspondent of Medusa to Daniil Turovsky about the international coalition to avoid confrontation Syria.

- What do analysts in your center think about the Russian operation in Syria? Why is this happening?

- Russia has the same fears about the situation in Syria as ours. And in the UK we understand and share these fears. We also have citizens who left to fight in the Islamic State ( the organization was recognized in Russia with terrorist and prohibited - approx. Medusa ), they can return back. The other day, the British drone killed our citizens in Syria-due to the fact that there were data on their threat to Great Britain ( September 7, the British drone destroyed two British Racca “for self-defense”; according to the special services, they planned attacks on the territory of the UK-approx. Medusa ). Therefore, I think, we understand Russia, although in the West there are different interpretations of Russia's military participation in Syria, the political future of Syria, the future Assad, and the transition period for it. We need to wait for the weather.

- Do you think that Putin has a goal - not so much to defeat the IG, but to help Assad?

“I think that both.” But now it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the defense departments of the States and Russia are exchanging intelligence, talked about which objects really bombing Russian, American or someone else's planes. The main thing is that there is no [information] vacuum about what is happening, otherwise there will be a lot of speculation - about what Russia is doing in Syria, on which objects it strikes.

Many say that Russia is there more in Assad’s affairs than to fight the Islamic State. In my opinion, it’s too early to draw such conclusions too early. If consultations between the US and Russia ministries will take place, then we will soon see how the public attitude towards Russia in Syria will change - people from the Obama administration will publicly perform with relevant statements. If a week after the start of the Russian aircraft, the US officials will receive all the same statements that Russia is not for the IG, but to other objects, then it will be possible to state a fundamental misunderstanding of what goals are legitimate and which is not ( on October 5, the Pentagon Director accused Russia of “aggravation of the Syrian conflict”; on October 6, the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian IG and the interaction of aviation in Syria - approx .

- If the situation does not change, how serious confrontation between Russia and the international coalition in the region can be expected?

- Our military aircraft fly in the same sky above the same territory, without coordinating it with each other. If we do not work together, then the probability of confrontation is very high. Both the USA and the UK in Syria have special forces. Not only the groups that the United States supports, but also the groups in which our experts are involved. In such a situation as now - when attacks are not coordinated - they can fall under the blow of Russian aviation. To conflict, too serious forces are involved in order not to try to avoid incidents, escalations. We must not forget in what difficult relationships our countries are. Everything needs to be coordinated with each other - in which territories there are IS or other terrorists. It is necessary to tell each other what objects will be attacked; say who has and where there is on Earth; To say which side, where and when there are military aircraft. Coordination is a way out.

- More than a year passed after the first blows of the international coalition on territories controlled by the Islamic State. Are there any successes?

- No. The Islamic State now controls more territories than at the time when the coalition began to apply air strikes. We can say that the operation of the coalition is failed. Perhaps, without air strikes, IG would control even larger territories, but this cannot be called an achievement.

- Is the land surgery against the IG?

- There is no chance that the United States will begin a land surgery in Syria. Not only Obama, but the entire American political class wants to avoid another long military intervention, which will cost a lot of lives and money.

- Can it be assumed that the West is not against Putin to introduce ground forces? After all, Russia has no problems with obtaining permission for this with the “political class”.

- You need to be careful with such formulations. Russia does not conduct a ground operation in Syria, only air forces operate. In all likelihood, Hizballa, Iranian forces and Assad’s troops ( October 5 CNN, with reference to sources in the Pentagon, said that Russia was going to conduct a ground operation in Syria - approx. Medusa ) can be used in the ground operation.

- Last summer, when the coalition was created, there was a plan of several steps: first airlines, then training and military support for local forces. Training, as far as I know, also failed.

- This is a secret to the whole world, as we say in England. The strategy for training local forces completely failed. I don’t think that in Washington someone seriously thinks differently.

- The coalition supported anti -government rebels from the Free Syrian Army. Do you know something about her condition?

-[Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] at a press conference [October 1] said that the SSA has the right to a political future in Syria, and that they are not a terrorist organization. According to our sensations, the SSA represents the opinion of certain people in Syria, and it is part of the process.

-What, in your opinion, will be further with the “Islamic state”?

- Their main idea is to occupy as many territories as possible, and hold them. In these territories, they really try to organize a functioning state: they create social services, the financial system, and introduce their currency. Their strategy is to unite and grow. We need to understand what makes their growth possible. For example, the terrible living conditions of people in that part of the world.

- How dangerous are IG militants who return after life there - home, to the UK, Germany and other countries?

- Hundreds of our fellow citizens are fighting for IG. The Russians have about two and a half thousand there. This situation is very serious: such militants are able to collect bombs, organize attacks. A migration crisis associated with instability in the Middle East is added to this situation due to IG and Assad.

- Can agents of IS be among refugees?

- This is possible. I think there are a very small amount of them. But for the special services to discover them is an fulfillment of the task.

- As far as I know, in the UK, to combat the leaving the IG, they adopted amendments to the law on which families suspects that their relatives are going to go to the IG can declare this to special services, and in this case their passports will be canceled.

- Yes, this new government measure. But most often families do not know anything, sons and daughters tell them that they go to college, to friends, for the city for a couple of days. The family learns what happened when their relatives are already in Syria.

- The IG has threatened both the USA and European countries with terrorist attacks. Why has this threat have not yet been implemented-due to the good work of the special services?

- Special services work. There are several stories in the UK when terrorists were discovered and neutralized in front of the terrorist attack. The other day, a man was sentenced to plan attacks ( on October 2, the Manchester court sentenced a 15-year-old teenager recruited by the IS, to a life imprisonment for preparing a terrorist attack-approx. Medusa ).

Employees of the special services say: luck with us every day - while luck on the side of the terrorist is only once. But we remember that the threat is always there. The inhabitants of London know this: we lived under the threat of Irish terrorism for a long time, al-Qaeda threatened us, dozens of people died in 2005 ( in the summer of 2005, the Isishamist terrorists-British citizens-held a series of explosions in the London metro; 52 people were killed, about 700 were wounded-approx. Medusa ). People can become terrorists without visiting the Islamic State.

In Russia, the organizations are recognized as terrorist and prohibited: “Al-Qaeda” (2003), “Islamic State” (2014) and “Ang Nusra” (2014).

Daniil Turovsky

Moscow