Turkey threatens Russia with refusal to purchase gas due to the intrusion of Russian military aircraft into its air zone. It could cost Gazprom $9.2 billion a year

Photo: REUTERS 2015

“We are the number one buyer of natural gas from Russia. The loss of Turkey would be a serious loss for Russia. If necessary, Turkey can buy natural gas from a variety of places,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying by Reuters . Erdogan's harsh remarks came after a Russian military plane entered Turkish airspace on its way to Syria late last week and was intercepted by Turkish fighter jets. According to NATO, Turkish airspace was violated by two Russian aircraft - Su-30 and Su-24 - on October 3 and 4, respectively. In Moscow, only the first case was recognized.

Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the president has been informed about the possibility of reviewing Turkey's cooperation with Russia. According to Peskov, Russia’s actions in Syria contribute “to ensuring stability and security in the region, which, in fact, is adjacent to the borders of the Republic of Turkey.” He hopes that relations with Turkey will “continue to develop upward.” Zakharova Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria also does not see any prerequisites for a deterioration in bilateral relations. Gazprom representative Sergei Kupriyanov does not comment on the Turkish president’s statement.

What risks does Gazprom take?

Turkey has been cooperating with Russia in the gas sector since 1997, when an intergovernmental agreement was signed between the countries. As part of this document, Gazprom entered into the largest commercial contract with the Turkish state-owned company Botas for the supply of 365 billion cubic meters. m of gas via the Blue Stream gas pipeline for 25 years. The price and volume of supplies, as well as the amount of discounts, are agreed upon annually. The latest agreements were reached in February. Technically, supplies can be stopped by refusing to agree on volumes and prices; legally, Gazprom prescribes the Stockholm Arbitration as the place for resolving disputes (this includes breaking the contract). Gazprom supplies gas to Turkey through two pipelines - the Trans-Balkan (capacity 16 billion cubic meters ) and Blue Stream (also 16 billion cubic meters ).

In 2014, according to Gazprom Export, Turkey bought 27.33 billion cubic meters from Russia. m of gas. (18% of gas exports from Russia). Based on the average price of gas sales to Europe (€280–300 per 1 thousand cubic meters), Gazprom could have received up to $9.2 billion from its Turkish partner, Botas, last year, estimates the deputy general director of the National Fund . energy security Alexey Grivach . assertion Contrary to Erdogan’s , this is the second client of the Russian monopoly after Germany (38.7 billion cubic meters of gas were supplied in 2014).

Ankara will not be able to completely abandon gas purchases from Russia, says Mikhail Krutikhin, partner of the consulting company Rusenergy. Moscow provides over 50% of gas consumption in the country. Turkey also receives raw materials from Iran (8.9 billion cubic meters in 2014 ) , Azerbaijan (5.3 billion cubic meters in 2014 ) and up to 8 billion cubic meters. m in the form of LNG from Nigeria and Algeria. “LNG is expensive, pipeline gas from other sources will also be more expensive than Russian gas, and there’s nowhere to get it from: pipeline capacities need to be built. Turkey expects that by 2020 gas consumption in the country will increase to 63 billion cubic meters. m of gas, but current supplies do not cover these needs for either pipeline gas or LNG,” says Krutikhin .

Not only gas

Russia makes money from energy exports, and its citizens spend money in Turkish resorts. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey, the average expenditure of one foreign tourist in 2014 was $755, in the first six months of 2015 - $751. In 2014, 4.479 million Russians visited Turkey, in January-June 2015 - almost 1.455 million Russians. Thus, Russians leave $3.38 billion a year in Turkey.

Russian operation in Syria could cost Gazprom $9.2 billion