The percentage percent

The Bank of Russia has to compare current macro -indicators of the economy and microeal of the population

The Board of Directors of the Central Bank (Central Bank) of Russia on Friday will make the next decision on the main interest rates . According to them, the Central Bank credits commercial banks, thus determining the cost of borrowed money in the entire economy. In December last year, the Bank of Russia sharply raised rates to stop panic in the foreign exchange market and prevent the “flight” of deposits from banks. Since then, the bets have already decreased five times, the current ones have been preserved since the beginning of August. The reduction in interest rates of the Central Bank ultimately leads to reducing loans, which stimulates domestic demand, but at the same time the risks of prices increase, since the money becomes more affordable. Inflational expectations in the country are still high , while the economy demonstrates the first weak signs of completing the decline, while remaining greatly dependent on oil prices . Economists evaluate options for the next decision of the Central Bank.

In fact, the regulator has to decide which of the factors - weak internal demand or high inflation expectations - is more important now, says Maxim Korovin, senior strategist of VTB Capital Bank in the next review: “We believe that two options will be considered at the meeting: maintaining a key rate at the current level, or its reduction by half the percentage point”.

Neither one nor the other in Russia has yet been observed: neither import substitution - against the background of a recession in the economy, nor growth of export - since its basis is raw materials.

Both the business and the financial sector, of course, achieve from the authorities to reduce bets, which would revive lending, but this decision is fraught with risks for the ruble, and devaluation is one of the main reasons for the decline in solvent demand in the economy, the leading researcher of the Center for Economic and Financial Research and Development (CEO) of the Russian Economic School Alexei North is recalls. It turns out, according to him, that, on the one hand, we stimulate internal demand, reducing loan rates, and on the other hand, through the weakening of the ruble, we reduce the same demand: “Therefore, in my opinion, in the current conditions, it is better to leave everything as it is. At least until oil prices begin to grow more or less steady.” These prices are reduced again and on Wednesday reached the next menstruation minimums.

In September, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, in the country, for the first time in many months, a small increase in the economy was noted - by 0.3% - after its zero recession during July and August. This gave an occasion to the heads of the Ministry to declare that the “bottom” of the current crisis has already been completed . And the statistics for September in industry surpassed forecasts. But at the same time, the inflationary expectations of the population in the country, one of the main factors for making decisions by the Central Bank at bets, are still growing. In particular, the assessments of current annual inflation in Russia by participants in the next sociological surveys conducted by order of the Central Bank, more than one and a half times higher than the current estimates of Rosstat. At least for now.

The reduction in the Central Bank of the key rate, say, half of the interest point from the current 11% per annum, if this happens, in principle, corresponds to the trajectory of inflation in the country that the Central Bank expects for the next 12 months, Macroanalyst of the Austrian bank Raiffeisen in Moscow, Maria Permanikov . The estate pace of inflation in Russia is returning to their usual levels , it reminds of it: “The question is more in whether the Central Bank will reduce its bets now and will continue to reduce them in December-January or postpone this decision until the first quarter of 2016? From the point of view of fundamental factors, the second looks more logical: by that time, the annual pace of inflation will sharply slow down already purely statistically-against the background-against the background Swift rise in prices in the first quarter of this year. ”

To the purchasing power of the population, reducing the rate of the Central Bank will really affect little. In the cost of loans, this is traditionally reflected with a large delay and to a much lesser extent.

In the context of September statistics, the current situation is such that, if the Central Bank, if it reduces bets, will not do this to stimulate industrial growth, but rather from a certain confidence that the threat of growth of inflation expectations is weakened, the chief economist of the Center for Development of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow Valery Mironov believes. He believes that the statistics on industrial production in Russia for September showed certain signs of its transition from the “bottom” to the resumption of growth. For the first time since April, the rate of annual fall in industrial production turned out to be below 4%. And taking into account the seasonal factor, industrial production, for the first time since December 2014, when the factor of excitement demand showed, showed a noticeable increase: 0.5% to the level of August in industry as a whole and 0.9% in processing industries. Moreover, in processing, growth was noted in the vast majority of sectors, including auto industry, which is especially indicative, since a number of other industries work for it.

However, this growth signal is still very weak, Mironov continues. “Say, September surveys of data from these statistics do not confirm. But, considering that they believe more than the statistics than surveys, the Central Bank would not reduce the rate just to stimulate industry. It seems to be planned in it. Or, at least, the“ bottom ”certainly does not deepen. Therefore, more likely to focus on the inflationary expectations of the population.”

If the Central Bank reduces, say, its key rate (now - 11%) by half or even for a whole interest point, this will not be reflected at all at the cost of bank loans. To a much greater extent, the rates that banks offer depositors on deposits with them react to such changes. But since loans, even if the Central Bank reduces the rates, will not particularly get cheaper , therefore, such a regulator’s decision will not affect the current volumes of internal demand in the country.

It turns out that, on the one hand, we stimulate internal demand, reducing loan rates, and on the other hand, we reduce the same demand through the weakening of the ruble.

The reduction in the population of the Central Bank will really affect the purchasing power of the population, Maria Pomelnikova agrees. In the value of loans, this is traditionally reflected with a large delay, and to a much lesser extent than this rate decreases. Another thing is that the reduction in the bets of the Central Bank, in principle , stimulates the investment of companies and enterprises both in their own development and personnel. As a result, consumer demand will win, but time should pass. “Therefore, a moderate decrease in the bets of the Central Bank, in the event of such a decision,, in principle, will have a positive impact on the expectations of companies.”

To expand the business of his investments, he should at least be profitable. “About 60% of all their investments Russian enterprises carry out at the expense of either their own funds or funds of maternal companies, if we are talking about holdings,” says Alexey Devyatov. However, the Rosstat data show that the net profit of Russian companies and enterprises, which has grown sharply (2-3 times in the economy as a whole to last year's levels) in the spring at the then devaluation of the ruble, has already become reduced by summer. And in August, against the background of the second wave of devaluation, she collapsed at all - almost five times to the level of August 2014.

Typically, the effect of devaluation manifests itself with a lag of 3-4 months, continues nine: for the time three months before August, that is, in May, there was a peak of the then strengthening of the ruble. “Therefore, the August decline arrived - a consequence of not re -weakening of the ruble at the end of summer, but its strengthening in May. So we will wait a couple of months and see that the profit of the companies will begin to grow again, as it was in the spring.”

In fact, the regulator has to decide which factors - weak internal demand or high inflation expectations - is now more important.

The surge in the growth of enterprises in the first half of the year was reflected by the “accumulated” effect of the ruble devaluation at the end of the last - beginning of this year, and it is clear why it manifested itself so sharply, adds Maria Pomelnikova. This time this will not happen: the summer weakening of the ruble in its scale is not comparable with the winter. In addition, the bulk of this profit is concentrated in a relatively few group of exporting companies. “Therefore, even that sharp increase in the profit of companies, which was celebrated by Rosstat in the spring, as a result, reflected on the sectors of the economy as a whole is by no means evenly.”

After the devaluation of the national currency, the profit of local manufacturers, in theory, increases, however, this should be preceded by the growth of domestic production volumes associated either with export or with import substitution , Valery Mironov notes. According to him, neither one nor the other in Russia has yet been observed: neither import substitution - against the background of a recession in the economy, nor growth of export - since the basis of Russian export is raw materials. “To those price advantages that, in principle, gives internal manufacturers the devaluation of the national currency, should also be added by capacities in the economy that can produce competitive products,” Mironov continues. “For this, Russian enterprises need investments, and they still do not grow.”