And the people answered the dollar ...

As a crisis changed the structure of the population of the population of Russia

The decline in the real income of the inhabitants of Russia in the third quarter, although it slowed down a little, remains one and a half times larger than at the beginning of the year. The fall of real salaries , on the contrary, accelerated even more. At the same time, the total expenses of the population again, as in the first quarter, exceeded its current income. And the share of the cost of buying a currency has reached an annual maximum.

Both real incomes of the population and real salaries in Russia continue to contract to last year's levels. So, real income (which takes into account both inflation and mandatory payments) in the third quarter, according to Rosstat, were 3.9% smaller than in July-September last year. In the second quarter, their annual decline was 4.4%, and in January-March-2.3%. But to what extent can we talk about slowing down the pace of this decline , if we mean estimates? Our interlocutor in Moscow is a researcher at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and short -term forecasting Igor Polyakov :

- To assess the trend of real incomes of the population, it is important to consider seasonality. In this case, it consists in the fact that in Russia their growth is traditionally very small in the first quarter, while in the fourth, on the contrary, a strong surge occurs. In the second and third quarters - neither the case. And this is besides different other trends. According to our estimates, during both the second and third quarters, the reduction in real income continued, although it was insignificant-minus 0.2-0.3% on average per month. In general, I would evaluate this so far as a trend in the stagnation of real incomes of the population. And he, apparently, will continue several more quarters - depending on the general economic situation.

The population is more concerned about part of the income to be directed either to additional consumption of goods, or to replenish their savings in currency

- Unlike the dynamics of real incomes of the population, the annual decline in real salaries in the country not only does not slow down, but even accelerated. If in January-March it amounted to 9%of the level of the same months last year, then in the second quarter-8.5%, and in the third-9.3%, while in September-9.7%. But how to explain the acceleration of the decline of real salaries against the backdrop of the slowdown in the decline of real incomes of the population as a whole?

- Here is the trend - rather, to continue the decline. In the third quarter, with the exception of the seasonal factor, the rate of reduction of real salaries was an average of 0.6% per month. This is many times worse than it was in the second quarter, when they almost did not change - minus 0.1%. Unfortunately, a factor that has not yet allowed real income, but rather leads to their stagnation, is precisely the uncertainty of prospects or, possibly, even a continuation of a reduction in real salaries.

As a crisis changed the structure of the population of the population of Russia

- ... already simply because the salary is the main part of the income of the population. How great is she?

- The structure of Russian households, according to their sources, includes the wage fund - this is the average wage multiplied by the number of employees. Next, there are transfers from the budget - this is the entire volume of pensions, benefits, scholarships, as well as social assistance to the population . The third source is income from entrepreneurial activity, the fourth is income from property. Here, if easier, the population sells cash currency, receives interest on deposits in banks, income from the sale of shares or bonds. And - other sources of income. So the share of wages in total volume is approximately 40%. Accordingly, its dynamics actually determines the dynamics of real incomes of the population.

- If you look at the ratio of income and expenses of the population of Russia within three quarters of 2015, then the gaps between them are primarily paid attention to. For example, in the first quarter, against the background of a sharp devaluation of the ruble , the Russians spent significantly more than they received in the form of various kinds of income, the gap was as much as 6.3%. In the second quarter, when the ruble was almost continuously strengthened , on the contrary, they saved more - the costs were 0.3% less income. Finally, in the third, against the background of the new wave of devaluation , the expenses again exceeded income, as at the beginning of the year, although to a much lesser extent, by 0.4%.

Sales of foreign currency went on as usual, but they were smaller than buying currencies to them to replenish their stocks

But in a strange way on the dynamics of private demand in the country, first of all, on the volume of retail trade, these differences were not much reflected. The decline in trade volumes steadily increased: minus 6.4% to last year’s level in the first quarter, minus 9.2% - in the second and minus 9.5% - in the third quarter ...

- Especially the “failed” decline in personal consumption was in the first quarter of the year - the volume of trade, with the exclusion of the inflationary factor, fell by 3% per month. Then these pace slowed down: up to minus 0.7% per month from April to June and to minus 0.5% in the third quarter. In other words, a certain process of “grinding the bottom” in the decline in personal consumption is still ongoing.

- However, in any case, the excess of current personal expenses over current income could not take place without the use of certain previous savings ...

- Yes, and, on the one hand, cash rubles from stocks were spent. But on the other hand, it is less known that the population of its reserves of cash foreign currency, which it holds “under mattresses”, without transferring to banks, also spent on its own consumption. Thus, by the way, he did not allow him to fall even lower. From here, in principle, there were gaps between expenses and income.

If people do not wait for the special growth of their income in the near future, they are trying in every possible way to protect what they already have

- The total volume of ruble private deposits in Russian banks is growing almost continuously, starting in the fall of 2014. Whereas the share of such deposits in the overall structure of the accumulation of the population practically does not change and, according to Rosstat, is approximately 67–68%in them. Another 21% is in cash, which are households have, and about 12% are of various kinds of securities. We repeat that these grades do not take into account the currency component of private savings - both currency deposits and cash currency in the hands of the population.

Against the background of the growth of the mass of ruble deposits, the total volume of consumer loans practically does not change : after a small growth in the fall-winter, it has now decreased to the level of August last year. In other words, rubles are carried to banks, for obvious reasons, avoiding new loans. Is this not a manifestation of the savings model of the behavior of the population, about the transition to which the Ministry of Economic Development now speaks? ..

- A significant role was played by the factors associated with fluctuations in the ruble course. This was especially evident in March 2015, as well as from July to September. The population sought not only to save, but at the same time avoid risks associated with the depreciation of their savings. That is, if people do not wait for the special growth of their income in the near future, they are trying in every possible way to protect what they have. Naturally, this is due to inflationary expectations. Well, and the inflationary expectations themselves intensified precisely precisely the oscillations of the ruble .

In other words, a certain process of “groping the bottom” in the decline in personal consumption in Russia is still ongoing

- ... and, in order to protect savings, people bought currency. And it is interesting how the share of the costs of these purchases changed. She reached the next peak in October last year - then the Russians spent 8.6% of all their current income on the purchase of currency, that is, almost 9 rubles from each hundred received. By May, the share of these expenses was more than doubled - to 3.7%, after which it began to grow again. In August, when the ruble was experiencing a new wave of a decline , the population has already spent 4.9% of its income on the purchase of currency, and in September - 4.7%, almost like in April ...

For comparison: in September, Russian households spent 57.5%of their current income in September, to pay for services - 15.6%, for various kinds of mandatory payments and contributions - 11.1%.

- The population increased “clean reserves” of cash currency through exchange points. This was characteristic, in particular, both for the third quarter and for February-March 2015. That is, sales of the currency by the population went on as usual, but they were less than buying currencies to them to replenish their stocks. For the same purpose, the population carried money to banks on foreign exchange deposits, even despite their low profitability. And in some periods, the “clean” replenishment of private currency deposits in Russian banks was ahead of the replenishment of ruble deposits. So in general, we do not believe that this was manifested precisely the “savings” behavior of the population - it was rather mixed. That is, there was a very strong factor in protecting their savings from risk of both inflation and fluctuations in the course.

- But the dynamics of this behavior of the population is traditionally tied precisely on fluctuations in the course: as soon as the ruble begins to strengthen, interest in the currency subsides ...

- According to our estimates, the “pure” replenishment of foreign exchange deposits of the population, that is, with the exception of the factor of fluctuations in the exchange rate, amounted to 2.6% in the first quarter of the year to the level of disposable income. And the pure growth of private ruble deposits during the same time is only 0.5%. In the second quarter, the picture, of course, changed, which was associated with the strengthening of the ruble . The replenishment of foreign exchange deposits was halved - to 1.3% of the disposable income, while this share increased by ruble deposits to 5.5%. On such data, we could talk about the “savings” model of the behavior of the population, that is, in the second quarter of 2015. But already in the third quarter, the situation has changed again: the increase in foreign exchange deposits remained the same - 1.3%, but the increase in ruble deposits to the total available income of the population has more than doubled - up to 2.3%.

In the third quarter, the average monthly rate of reduction of real salaries turned out to be six times larger than in the second

- Accordingly, the share of currency deposits in the total amount of private deposits in Russian banks - either increasing, then contracting ...

- Now their share is about 29%. Whereas in the second quarter it fell to 24-26%. And at the beginning of the year, we recall, the share of currency deposits also amounted to about 26%. So the behavior of the population in terms of foreign exchange deposits, in our opinion, was very different from the model of simple “savings behavior”, which would be just aimed at protecting part of inflation income. There were much more complex processes here ...

- And in them, apparently, there was no place for consumer loans, since their total volume in the country from the beginning of the year has been reduced from month to month . In July-August, there was a small growth, but in September, according to the Bank of Russia, it again gave way to a decline ...

- Private borrowers had to repay the previously taken loans, but in the context of the fall of salaries and income to serve debts, of course, is more difficult. Partially used re -accommodation techniques, however, these opportunities were quickly exhausted, and as a result, during 2015 there was mainly pure repayment of consumer loans. The population was more concerned about the part of the disposable income either to additional consumption of goods, which is manifested both by possible inflation risks , or to replenish their foreign exchange rate accumulations. This is what became a priority. Accordingly, consumer loans could not restrain the decline in trade. And only in August-September there were some signs of a possible revitalization of consumer loans.