November 10, 2015, 22:55 / Business

State-owned companies may increase dividends for 2015

Investors will mainly be pleased with Gazprom and Alrosa Alina Fadeeva

A pleasant surprise awaits shareholders of Gazprom and Alrosa / E. Razumny / Vedomosti

Gazprombank, based on data for the draft budget for 2016, calculated the possible yield on dividends of state-owned companies. In total, in 2016, state-owned companies will transfer 140.5 billion rubles to the budget in the form of dividends. – this is almost half the amount paid in 2014 (RUB 247 billion). (RUB 10 billion) will pay the most Gazprom (RUB 71.7 billion), Rosneftegaz (RUB 15.7 billion), Alrosa (RUB 11.6 billion) and Bashneft - see .table. Overall, dividends will be quite stable, analysts write. Dividends of Sovcomflot, Rostelecom, RusHydro will increase slightly, and Zarubezhneft and System Operator will decrease slightly.

There are two pleasant exceptions to the project - Gazprom and Alrosa, Gazprombank analysts point out. Gazprom's dividends for 2015 may immediately increase by 10% year-on-year to about 7.9 rubles. per share, this is higher than the bank's forecast of 7.2 rubles. per share. The dividend yield is good - 5.7%, which can be positively perceived by the market, the review says. In 2014, the dividend yield of Gazprom shares was estimated at 4.9%. Alrosa's dividends for 2015 may increase almost 2.5 times to 3.6 rubles. per share, and yield could reach 6.7% per share, analysts write. Gazprombank itself predicted that Alrosa would pay shareholders 1.5 rubles. per share, and the dividend yield will be approximately 3%. Alrosa's dividend yield for 2014 was 2%, wrote BKS. The market may perceive this positively, analysts estimate. The Gazprom representative did not answer Vedomosti's questions; his colleague from Alrosa said that dividends would be accrued in accordance with the company's dividend policy.

UBS also expected dividends from Gazprom of 7.2 rubles. per share, says bank analyst Maxim Moshkov. Bloomberg consensus forecast is approximately 7.6 rubles. per share, he points out. Gazprom pays dividends from net profit according to RAS, which is difficult to predict and which is often adjusted for non-monetary items, so the monopoly does not have clear instructions on exactly how much to pay shareholders, he reminds. According to Moshkov, Gazprom follows several rules: to pay no less than last year, and also to maintain a liquidity cushion to finance mandatory projects. An increase in dividends will be a positive surprise for the market and could lead to a rise in shares of several percent, the analyst believes. A similar situation occurred last year, when Gazprom allocated almost 100% of net profit under RAS for dividends, which greatly supported the shares. Now, apparently, the state believes that Gazprom can continue the policy of high payments, Moshkov argues. Thus, Gazprom may be even more shareholder-friendly than Lukoil, whose dividends will increase by only 8.3% (for the first half of the year), the expert concludes.

Alrosa, according to its dividend policy, can allocate up to 35% of net profit under IFRS for dividends, recalls Societe Generale analyst Sergei Donskoy. According to his forecast for the year, the company’s profit will be $1.2–1.4 billion (RUB 77.5–90.4 billion at the Central Bank exchange rate as of November 10, 2015). The Federal Property Management Agency owns 43.9% of Alrosa shares, so, according to the data in the draft budget and Societe Generale estimates, the company can allocate 26.3 billion rubles, or 29–34% of net profit, for dividends. This fits into the company’s policy, Donskoy sums up.

However, forecast materials for the budget do not mean mandatory execution. For example, the project of income from profits and dividends of state-owned companies to the budget assumed the collection of 200.4 billion rubles, and in the appendix to the explanatory note of the new budget, the forecast was increased to 247 billion rubles.