Two boards

Mikhail Saakashvili is a unique person in post -Soviet policy: he manages to participate in the life of two former Soviet republics, Georgia and Ukraine at once - and in both countries to be in the spotlight. The Georgian Minister of Justice Teya Tsulukiani said that her department had already sent Saakashvili a notification of the upcoming deprivation of Georgian citizenship. A month later, the President of Georgia George Margvelashvili will announce his decision regarding the passport of the predecessor. Well, a hurry of the Georgian leadership can be understood.

For Georgia, Saakashvili is a symbol of the past. For some of his compatriots, this is the past - the authoritarian regime, omnipotence of the security forces, the requisitions of businessmen, the dispersal of the opposition, the defeat in South Ossetia. These people hope that the past is over forever. For another part of the citizens of Georgia, Saakashvili are fateful reforms, approaching the civilized world, the fight against corruption, and the reluctance to "adapt" to Putin. This part of the Georgian voters would be glad to return the former president and the release of his associates from prisons.

For Ukraine, Saakashvili is the future. Many expect that he will show how to carry out reforms, will help change the country that can hardly cope with changes. But there are those who identify Georgian politics with authoritarianism and disrespect for other people's opinion, with the replacing real changes. Saakashvili always and everywhere treated so ambiguously. But never before he had to deal with two state systems at the same time - Ukrainian and Georgian, and each works against him.

Failures began with local elections. Saakashvili was forced to become the Motor of the election campaign of the little -known in Odessa Sasha Borovik , the former Soviet citizen and the Western manager, who was famous for the loud departure from the government of Ukraine. It is still really unclear what position in the Cabinet of ministers held Borovik, whether he was deputy minister of economics or only his adviser. Borovik joined the Saakashvili team, and the Solidarity party nominated him with a candidate for mayor - as opposed not only to the current head of the city, the former “regional” Gennady Trukhanov , but also his main competitor, the once popular mayor Eduard Gurvitsa.

Saakashvili made almost impossible. In principle, an indistinguishable, even devoid of a hint of charisma and does not have political experience, a candidate thanks to the boiling energy of the head of the regional administration and the brand of the Saakashvili team not only significantly bypassed the Gurvitsa, but also approached Trukhanov. Borovik even had the opportunity to meet with the mayor of Odessa in the second round - unless, of course, this second round would take place. But the numbers that talked about the possibility of holding the second round appeared only once - on the air of the television program of Savik Schuster . A couple of days later, the local election room announced the victory of Trukhanov in the first round of elections. In vain, Saakashvili shocked the protocols at a press conference, which were supposed to prove: the elections were falsified. It turned out that the head of the administration and his candidate has no support not only in the courts, but also in his own party. And the idea to collect a new Maidan in Odessa and demand the departure of the newly elected mayor was rejected by Saakashvili himself - most likely, after consultations with Kiev.

In practice, this means that the head of the region is drawn into a real hardware confrontation. He had not had a world, but a truce with Trukhanov before with him. But now Trukhanov has established himself in the position in the presence of Saakashvili, he has every opportunity to control the Odessa City Council - but Saakashvili has almost no chances to control the Odessa regional council. It turns out that the popular head of the region can only rely on his own "non -wort" team, part of public activists and law enforcement agencies, which are headed by Georgian associates. In this situation, moving to Kyiv is preferable for Saakashvili to the raw Odessa winter.

How will Saakashvili play on two boards - will it be able to save what he has achieved in Georgia, and preserve what he wants to achieve in Ukraine?

But what position? With the current coalition, Saakashvili does not have a chance of the post of prime minister, and extraordinary parliamentary elections may not be a chance for him, but for another Trukhanov - only this time Kyiv. First Deputy Prime Minister? Saakashvili has not worked for a long time in the role of anyone's deputy; He is not at all like a person who knows something about official subordination. In addition, the relations of Saakashvili and the heads of government Arseniy Yatsenyuk are spoiled - the Ukrainian prime minister and the Odessa head of the administration have repeatedly publicly exchanged worship.

Against this background, in Tbilisi, the process of depriving the former president of Georgian citizenship begins. By the way, this could not happen without the participation of Ukrainian "well -wishers": the Georgian leadership needed confirmation that Saakashvili entered the citizenship of Ukraine - and in Tbilisi received the desired document. It is clear that this passport deprivation against the backdrop of future parliamentary elections - potential voters of the Saakashvili party, seemed to convince that its leader completely abandoned Georgia and will not return. The deprivation of citizenship is accompanied by the publication of the next telephone conversations of the ex-president with associates on a certain Ukrainian site. Saakashvili's calls to defend the Rustavi-2 television channel , the last Rupe of the opposition, allowed the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Garibashvili to appeal to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko with an official complaint against a fellow countryman.

In Tbilisi, Saakashvili is accused of preparing a coup - although even if you believe in the authenticity of the records, no one says there, except for the protection of the channel. And it is already clear that this struggle is not even with Saakashvili, but with his telephone ghost, it will be the main theme of the future election campaign - the ruling "coalition of stability" against the one who wants to seize power by force, but even the Georgian passport does not. As a result, as the recent missions in Georgia showed this, “the Third Power” may well achieve success - an openly pro -Russian populist “Patriots Alliance” , opposing the European and Euro -Atlantic course. Then the defeat of Georgian reforms can become final and irrevocable.

Saakashvili, however, not get used to this endless confrontation - the struggle formed it as a policy and provides persistent authority among fans. Now it’s only interesting how he will play on two boards, whether he can save what he achieved in Georgia, and preserve what he wants to achieve in Ukraine.

Vitaly Portnikov - Kiev journalist, author and host of the Radio Liberty program "Road to Freedom"

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the Radio Liberty editorial