Between two Putin

Chamberlain's peacekeeping visit - the plot is bright, intriguing, exciting. The plot is unpredictable. The plot is eternal.

Many years have passed since he came to negotiate with one famous politician for the first time, and seemed to have agreed, and, returning, exclaimed joyfully: "I brought you peace!" Nowadays, Chamberlain will never allow himself this. He became silent, closed, distrustful. Actually, he is now French and call him differently: Francois Hollande. And in Munich he has nothing to do, from there no infection is spreading. He goes to Moscow. Otherwise, the situation is similar.

The world is on the verge of a large war, and the role of a Western politician, which retained a kind of trusting relations with the most dangerous of modern leaders, is again reduced to listen to and somehow calm it. Then for this it was necessary to pass the Sudeters, and in fact - Czechoslovakia. Today there is no one to hand over, but the international coalition in the confrontation with the aggressor is much more than in the fall of 1938. On the other hand, in the nuclear age, this does not matter much, because the radioactive ash is enough for everyone, which is why Hollande in the Kremlin is not easier than Chamberlain in Fuhrerbau. You can’t envy the peacekeeper.

It should be calm and firm, but where to get them, calm and firmness, if two weeks ago Paris survived a terrible terrorist attack. He must demonstrate sympathy for his partner, markedly shocked by recent combat and non -eating losses, and in words this manage, but the discrepancies are too large to hide them. During the negotiations, he should try to understand what thoughts and plans ripen in the head of the Russian president, but so far few have succeeded. Moreover, the circumstances accompanying the visit to Moscow are not amenable to any comparison and analysis. The partner himself does not know what to do, because he is doubly dangerous.

The main trouble is that in the conflict of Russia with Turkey, the braid found on a stone. Putin ran into Putin, whose name is Erdogan, and each has his own spiritual scrapers, in the form of a cross or crescent. After all, Ankara also rises with his knees, and the construction of Great Turkey is accompanied by pains with similar special matters: muddy terrorist attacks, ethnic wars, eliminating the opposition and the abolition of freedom of speech. In addition, Turkish Putin is yearning for the Ottoman Empire, which he lost, like the Russian Erdogan - in the Soviet empire.

Both with maximum acuteness feel like land collectors, and these lands sometimes intersect: in Crimea, in Karabakh. Both are very difficult to experience a personal geopolitical disaster. The largest in the twentieth century or even for six past centuries.

So they are stitched to death, hesitating good people: Russia with its unique nuclear arsenal and Türkiye, a member of NATO. And if next to some England bombers of the Russian Air Force can circle almost with impunity, no one will particularly pick it up, except that the ambassador will be chosen to the carpet, then these tricks do not pass with the Turks. Once they will be warned, another, after the drone will be played, then a military aircraft. And when Putin demands an apology, Erdogan will daring him boldly in the sense that let's apologize. And he will add, obviously mocking that maybe the Turks would not bring down the plane if they knew that he was Russian, but “in the event of a new invasion” they will be played again. Well, and so that it did not seem a little, yesterday the Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu promised to "resolve" the conflict around the Nagorno -Karabakh. And this war is almost guaranteed, since Russia is the only ally of Armenia in the region.

Such was the background, accompanied by a historical visit, and Hollander understood what his mission and the goal of shuttle diplomacy between Paris, Washington, London, Berlin, Ankara and Moscow was. To the public to talk about terrorism, to the fight against which you need to "unite in one wide coalition." But in reality, in the course of closed negotiations, call Putin to restraint in dialogue with Turkey. Since in the face of the threatening world massacre, even about terrorists is thought somehow abstractly.

Partners have insurmountable disagreements. According to Hollande and his allies, “Assad cannot play any role in the future,” and Vladimir Vladimirovich, as everyone knows, is the exact opposite opinion. Let, they say, the Syrian people decide the fate of Assad, although no elections in the country torn by civil wars cannot be held. That is, there is no real coalition with the Kremlin, but it is still possible to distinguish between the spheres of the military presence in the region, so as not to bring to sin, and this was the main message of the speeches of the French president. Well, no one is going to forget about Ukraine, and Holland also said about this - briefly, but clear.

And about the "incident" on the Turkish-Syrian border, he spoke at a press conference. Moreover, answering, as it were, to another question - about the placement of Russian S -400 systems in Syria, which Putin reported in detail about, and Hollande chose not to spread. He began to speak out precisely about the "incident", and then he uttered the most important words, and for this he came.

“The main thing is to refrain from the escalation,” the President of France called. “We need to avoid possible repetitions with all our means ... And finally, what we agreed with President Putin, and this is a very important point: we agreed that it is necessary to strike only terrorists, only on ISIS and only on jihadic groups. The main thing is not to strike the forces or those groups that also conduct the struggle with the struggle with the struggle with terrorists for their part. " And although they hardly really agreed with Putin, the point of view of the North Atlantic Alliance was expressed by Holland with maximum clarity. In particular, this concerned Russian bombing on the border with Turkey. And if in the coming days the bombing in the "Promotion of Retribution" will not stop, this will mean that the situation for the better has not changed yet.

Chamberlain, as you know, brought the world, but miscalculated. Hollande could not count, because he did not hope for a quick resolution of the crisis and did not hide either anxiety or pessimism. Nevertheless, his visit was very useful - for the fact that the president of France remains almost the only Western leader who retained the external form of friendly relations with Putin. The visibility of general grief. The illusion of mutual understanding.

He will not bring the world, no matter how much he has met his Russian colleague, but today this is generally an unattainable dream. The recensic dream is now fixing the Cold War between the superpower in its frozen state, and the French president seems to be doing this task. At least in Moscow, and as for Ankara, there other negotiators lead their crafty therapeutic speeches.