"Nothing can be excluded"

How the confrontation of Russia - Türkiye on regional and global security will affect - The New Times asked experts

Su-34 fighter armed with air-air missiles before departure, Syria, December 1, 2015

1. What are the interests of Turkey in Syria and how do they differ from Russian?

2. Did Moscow take into account the Turkish factor when making a decision on surgery in Syria?

3. Can the conflict Russia - Turkey to develop into the confrontation of Russia - NATO?

Dmitry Peskov,
Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, in the past-at diplomatic work in Turkey:

1. The best thing here is to recall the words of Vladimir Putin that it is impossible to understand how the Turkish authorities could do this (bring down the Russian bomber. - NT ). The problem is that such an unpredictability of the Turkish leadership is not amenable to understanding. This is the tragedy and the danger of the situation, because before that we considered the actions of Turkish partners, as we then called them, allied and predictable.

But now, when information about the sources of financing of ISIS * and other terrorist organizations related to oil supply (this is intelligence care is disclosed who has involvement, who does not have), it can be stated that the gas trucks loaded with oil truly crossly crossing the Turkish border and go to the territory of Turkey. And the same streams of empty cars cross the border in the opposite direction and go towards the areas that are controlled by terrorist organizations.

2. The interests of Turkey in organizing such a stream could not be taken into account before the start of our operation. At the very beginning, everyone came from only one - that Turkey, in theory, should be interested in the most stable neighbor in the form of Syria, who will correct the situation, stop the refugee stream and show its independence in terms of territorial integrity, because, God forbid, the process of crushing will begin in this region.

All relevant Russian departments are constantly in close contact with scientific institutions, with expert circles, in particular, and according to the Turkish factor. And the departments, primarily the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, form reports to the head of state that he uses.

3. I would like the confrontation between Russia - Turkey does not grow into conflict with NATO. Moreover, there is no reason for this. I would like to hope that we will have a more effective information exchange with the coalition, which is headed by the United States. It is carried out now, but its effectiveness leaves much to be desired.

Dmitry Train,
Director of the Moscow Center of Carnegie:

1. From the very beginning, it was clear that Russian and Turkish interests in Syria did not coincide - not in regard to the fate of Bashar al -Assad, nor in the Kurdish issue, nor on the supply of oil to the local market.

2. Turkish interests were taken into account as negative factors in general. However, they were not taken into account when planning specific actions in Syria.

3. The development of a conflict from the Russian-Turkish into a confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance is unlikely. In relations with Turkey, we have not yet reached the bottom, but, I think, a deterioration will not include military escalation. True, one Russian politician recently announced the need to take control of Bosphorus and Dardanella - if he reaches that, NATO will definitely stand up for Turkey. So nothing can be ruled out.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky,
Head of the LDPR faction in the State Duma, Turkologist by education:

1-2. Russia has been supported by Turkey for the past 90 years, since Lenin. This is a historical mistake. We with our own hands strengthened Turkey, “pumped up” its industry. In the late 1990s, the State Duma, contrary to the protests of the LDPR, ratified the agreement to avoid double taxation with the ankara, then on the Blue Stream project-for the supply of our gas to Turkey. In 2010, again, despite the position of the LDPR, the deputies gave the green light to the construction of Akkui NPP in Turkey - they did not manage to build it. The logic of power is understandable: to feed the Turks so that they become dependent on us. But in this case there is a good saying: no matter how much the wolf feeds, he still looks into the forest. Despite all our help to them, the Turkish third field army still stands near the borders of the Caucasus. And after the incident with the plane, Türkiye became the only NATO country that in the history of the existence of this alliance committed aggression against Russia. It is the Turks in the future that can be used to untie the war against us.

3. After the attack on our plane, Turkey immediately ran to complain to Brussels. They thought that the war of Russia would be declared right the same night. But the next day they woke up, see that no one supports them. NATO will not fight against Russia.

Victor Nadein-Raevsky,
Leading expert of the Institute of World Economics and International Relations (IMEMO) RAS:

1. I believe that in Ankara a scenario was being prepared in which power in Syria would be overthrown with the subsequent occupation of part of the country's territory by Turkey.

2. Russia over the past four years demonstrated loyalty to Turkey, which partly affected the volume of our help to Assad. Moreover, what was clearly visible: to destroy the regime in Damascus, Türkiye, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, spend a lot of effort. As it was clear, the fact that the collapse of Syria and the destruction of all groups of disagreements, professing “the wrong faith”, and this is a significant part of the Syrian population will lead to terrifying consequences.

3. The probability of expanding the scale of the Russian-Turkish conflict depends on whether Russia and NATO will be ready to show restraint. So far, the parties demonstrate the readiness not to cross a certain line.

Natalia Ulchenko,
Head of the Turkish sector Yves RAS:

2. Accounting for the special interests of Turkey in Syria was probably insufficient - therefore there was an incident with a downed plane. It seems that the channel of operational military communications was established, there was a connection between the headquarters, and misunderstanding still remained.

3. Formally supported Turkey, NATO clearly made it clear what was not interested in developing the conflict. Now on Erdogan there is pressure in order to reduce tension. Rather, everything will be limited only to the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara. Nevertheless, the perception of Turkey as a risk factor and Russia does not exist now. Measures have already been taken in order to close the border between Turkey and Syria, our planes will now fly at some distance from the Syrian-Turkish border, not to mention the development of a new concept for ensuring flight safety on our part-all this is blocking the possibility of repeating incidents with a shot down Su-24.
The situation, in my opinion, looks quite stable.

Alexander Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis:

3. Turkey in its military potential clearly takes second place in NATO after the United States. Actually, there are only two combat -ready armies in NATO - American and Turkish. After the Erdogan Erdogan comes to power, Türkiye behaves very freely in relation to NATO - she has its own tasks and geopolitical concepts that have nothing to do with the alliance. Actually, NATO will not help anyone, because the alliance in its current form is not able to help anyone-and this will once again, after Georgia and Ukraine, will manifest itself on the example of Turkey. In addition, all the Blok countries are obvious: the behavior of Ankara with the downing of the aircraft is absolutely unacceptable, and conversations about violation of borders are a complete absurdity.

In Antalya, Erdogan once again asked Putin not to bomb Turkoman. Russia continued the bombing

Alexander Sotnichenko,
Associate Professor of St. Petersburg State University, Turkologist, Orientalist:

1. Turkey intervened in the Syrian conflict on the side of the opposition at the end of 2011 - in the hope that instead of the regime of Bashar al -Assad, a moderate Islamic regime will come to power, in ideology similar to the ruling party of justice and development in Turkey. Erdogan proceeded from the fact that approximately the same forces came to power in Tunisia and Egypt - as a result of the overthrow of the power of Ben Ali and Mubarak. Erdogan hoped that similar political - and friendly - forces would be consolidated in Syria for a long time and, with the help of Turkey, would carry out the same breakthrough in the economy that Türkiye itself committed in the first decade of the 21st century. However, in Syria this calculation was not justified. The point on the plans of Erdogan or at least a fat comma was put by Russia and Iran, who decided to provide military assistance to the Syrian regime. Turkey became clear that the victory eluded her hands. The Turks tried to rectify the situation, repeatedly asking Putin not to bomb the Syrian opposition to them - a free Syrian army and detachments of Turkoman (ethnic Turks living in Syria). Russia did not heed such requests, because it takes a clear position: who holds weapons in their hands is that terrorist. Meanwhile, the reception of the Syrian refugees (they directly invited them to themselves) spent more than $ 7 billion, according to official figures, according to official figures, according to official figures. There were far -reaching plans for cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as projects for the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Now the implementation of such a project has become impossible, not to mention the fact that it is disadvantageous of Russia and Gazprom: after all, Türkiye would have received an alternative to Russian gas and began to dispose of transit routes to Europe. This Gazprom is completely unprofitable.

2. At the G20 summit in Antalya, Putin and Erdogan discussed the Russian operation in Syria. Erdogan once again asked Putin not to bomb Turkoman. Russia continued the bombing, and the Russian plane, apparently, on November 24, really violated the airspace of Turkey. Meanwhile, Türkiye considers it to be the legal representative of the Syrian people who are the armed opposition detachments and the national coalition of the opposition forces. I dare to remind the same position, adheres to the League of Arab states, European states, the USA.

3. NATO does not need a direct conflict with Russia, the interest of the alliance is that Russia and Turkey weaken each other. But now it all depends on how actively the British, Americans, Germans and the French will participate in the Syrian conflict - because they also do not take into account Russian interests and do not recognize the Assad government.

Anna Glazova,
Deputy Director of the Russian Institute of Strategic Research (RISI):

1-2. The official position of Ankara: Turkey is against terrorism and is ready to fight the radical Islamitists in Syria, including ISIS * . Well, these interests are completely consonant with Russian. Another question is - what are the real, vasromeling Turkish interests? The fight against terrorism or the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, followed by receiving, at least de facto, control over part of the Syrian territory? The Kremlin is fully aware that to achieve their goals, the Turkish leadership is ready to use any means, including terrorists and radical Islamists.

3. It is logical to assume that the actions of Ankara on November 24, when the Russian aircraft was shot down, there was a desire to provoke a conflict at the Russia-NATO level, then to jointly force Russia if not completely stopping the anti-terrorist operation in Syria, then at least limit it to some regions in the west or east of the country. If there were such goals, then Türkiye could not achieve them: NATO chose not to interfere in the conflict and limited themselves to general statements.

Pavel Shlykov ,
Associate Professor of the Institute of Asian and Africa (Isaa) at Moscow State University:

2. Of course, the fact that Turkey in Syria had special interests was originally taken into account. The Kremlin knew very well that Türkiye is a heavy negotiator, with whom sometimes they have to take a step back, to concede in the calculation for the future. Just on Turkey, they have long made a bet as a strategic partner. If, by the interests of Turkey, to understand what the Kremlin accuses her now, the organization of illegal oil traffic, games with ISIS * , then this is a completely new motive. In fact, such accusations are incompatible with the status of Turkey as a member of a wide coalition against ISIS * .

3. I would not exclude the growth of conflict from the Russian-Turkish to the Russian-Natovsky. True, there were signals that the North Atlantic Alliance and Washington would not allow themselves to be drawn into these games of Turkey. And in the NATO statement, which has solidarized with Turkey as a member of the alliance, first of all, it was noted that the events that were taking place was the problem of the relationship of Ankara and Moscow. By the way, NATO had previously distance from the adventurous steps of Ankara. The most striking example of this kind is the events of 1974, when Türkiye captured the northern part of Cyprus, and NATO stopped supplying weapons to the Turks to avoid the seizure of the rest of the island.

* ISIS, or IG ("Islamic State") - a terrorist organization banned in the territory of the Russian Federation.

Photo: The Press Service and Information Department of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation/TASS