Coercion to handshake

The conflict between Russia and Turkey reaches a new level. President Putin, in addition to previous accusations of “aiding terrorists”, imposed sanctions against Ankara, warning her that “tomatoes would not cost”, and calling the Turkish leadership “ruling click”. In response, President Erdogan promised to prove that it was Russia, and not Türkiye is involved in illegal oil trade with the Islamic State*. What is happening and what to wait - thought The New Times thought

Prince Oleg confuses his shield to the gates of Constantinople, engraving F.A. Bruni, until 1839

What began as a big political drama, two weeks later, turned into a rather miserable farce.

At the beginning of a new round of tension around Syria, there was a burning bomber, falling into its last peak, a catapulted pilot, ridiculed from a large -caliber machine gun, slowly, like a training target floating from heaven to sinful earth, fierce bearded, on whose heads a dead pilot poured bombs, a “successful” rescue surgery, in a rescue surgery, in a rescue surgery, in which had to be sacrificed by helicopters and people.

The world seemed to be on the threshold of the third world, Vladimir Putin threatened to get even “hit in the back”, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in response: “We will put it down again, we’ll get it again ...”

Two weeks later, everything began to resemble a communal quarrel: retribution was reduced to the abandonment of Turkish tomatoes and the promise of more Turks on the threshold could not be allowed. The Russian president, having arrived at the climate conference in Paris, went on his sidelines and swore in the spirit of "Your boy contacted a bad company." At Turkey’s senior comrades, these reproaches and exhortations did not impress a particular impression: that Turkish, Syrian, Jordanian and Israeli smugglers sell the “Islamic state ” with oil, and everyone knew without Putin. By the way, Russia itself should remember what an illegal oil business is - in the first and second Chechen wars ...

Turkey transferred the body of the deceased pilot O. Peshkov to the Russian side in compliance with all military honors, Turkey, Ankara, November 30, 2015

On December 2, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it has evidence of Erdogan family involvement in oil trade with IG * . The next day, Erdogan replied: he has evidence that everything happens exactly the opposite: in the oil business with IG *, Russia is knew.

However, the body of the downed pilot, Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov, the Turks handed over to the Russian side with all the conceivable military honors, Turkey not only refrained from a symmetrical response to Russian sanctions and did not introduce entry visas for Russians-from the Turkish shore, and affectionate invasions are still heard: we love you, we love you. That's perhaps to repent for the Ankara, which was shot down on November 24, as before, is not going to.

On the way to unacceptable losses

It would seem that the inhabitants of both countries could breathe a sigh of relief: Fu, it carried, neither our president, nor Turkish had the courage to be more than a border.

Meanwhile, the cause of the conflict has not gone anywhere, and it is not so important as to designate it. According to Erdogan, Türkiye defends in Syria, or rather, in the province of Latakia, in the sky of which Su, the “Turkish world” was shot down, as well as Russia in the Donbass - “Russian”. According to Putin, Erdogan was by no means in the interests of the “Turkish world”, but in the interests of his own oil gesheft.

The bottom line remains unchanged: Russia entered the Syrian conflict on the side of Bashar al -Assad, which is completely unacceptable for Turkey. At the same time, Russia bombs those whom the Turks consider their own. And if the Kremlin or the Ministry of Defense so want so that after the word “their own” there are not “fellow tribesmen”, but “business partners”, then please. All the same, this will not affect the final result.

How the events will develop further depends on what conclusions Russia draws from the lesson. On the one hand, Putin at a meeting on November 26 in Moscow with France President Francois Hollande seemed to say that, probably, it really should not bomb those who confront the IG * , while not part of the Assad army. You might think that he had in mind the armed Sunni detachments, similar to the very Turkoman, whom we bombed in the Northern Latakia. But on the other hand, “for Assad”, in addition to the army, is still fighting with a dozen of various squads and militias that are formally not the armed forces of Syria. So Putin could completely keep in mind these, and not at all.

At least, the first thing our planes flew to take revenge. And they bombed the vegetable market in the center of the city of Arikha in the province of Idlib. This territory is not controlled by IG * militants, the influence of their opponents from the Islamist group "Jabhat al-Nusra" * is much stronger here. They are precisely the “same” who can be bombed, although they “also confront the IG * ”. As a result - 40 dead.

Türkiye will no longer be able to engage in “their own” openly. The Russian VKS in Syria no longer fly in a relaxed manner of “driving shepherds in the mountains” - now the bombers either come out accompanied by fighters, or in addition to bombs they take air -air -air missiles with them. This means that sooner or later, the Turkish “their own” should have modern anti-aircraft missile systems. Actually, this is exactly what Russia did recently in the Donbass, closing the sky in the region completely for Ukrainian aviation. In this case, it will not be easier to call the Turks to the answer than to force Russia to admit that it was her Buk who shot down the Malaysian Boeing. It is possible that the rebels will not even be obsolete Turkish complexes, namely the “beeches”, which showed their effectiveness. They can easily be bought from Ukraine specifically for such a case. Moreover, the information plums about the likely weapon trade between Kiev and the militants in Syria have already been.

Details

Russia is counterattack

What goods and services affected sanctions against Turkey:

From November 28, 2015:

● Sale of tourist trips to Turkey is suspended.

From December 1, 2015:

● A ban on charter flights with Turkey has been introduced.

From January 1, 2016:

● Import to Russia of Turkish food products: meat (chicken and turkey), vegetables (tomatoes, onions, cabbage, cucumbers), fruits and berries (oranges, tangerines, grapes, apples, pears, apricots, dugouts, strawberries), salt, salt. It is also forbidden to import cloves;

● prohibits or limited the activities of a number of companies under Turkish jurisdiction;

● Russian companies “not included in the list approved by the government” is prohibited from hiring Turkish citizens;

● The effect of the clause of the bilateral agreement on the terms of mutual trips of citizens regarding the visa -free regime is suspended.

The war of decisions

What next? The “tomato trump card” is already spent, and any power response to Turkey will raise the question of using the Black Sea Strait directly. The path from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, namely, this route is supplying the Russian group in Syria, lies through the Bosphorus, the Marmara Sea and Dardanella, under Turkish control. According to the Montreo Convention, Türkiye, for example, has the right to close the passage through the straits in the event of a direct military threat. What can be considered such, not entirely clear, but strictly speaking, Russia has already given certain grounds to limit us in the use of Straits: Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who, although it is considered a character is quite odious, but at the same time not an ordinary deputy of the Russian parliament, publicly called on to deliver a nuclear blow to Turkey. This in Russia all from small to great know that Zhirinovsky is a kind of political entertainer, but the Turks are not obliged to know this and at any moment they can pretend that they perceive his words seriously.

It is possible that the rebels in Syria will now even have outdated Turkish complexes, namely the “beeches”, which showed their effectiveness. They can easily be bought from Ukraine specifically for such a case

In the meantime, Ankara prefers the thin world of a good quarrel and, in response to the Trep Zhirinovsky, limited itself to only exercises in the Bosphorus, forcing Russian ships to linger on the day at the entrance to the strait. But this must be understood precisely as a reminder of Turkish capabilities.

Thus, any elimination of the conflict with Turkey from the field of economic sanctions to the power sphere means a cross on the Russian presence in Syria.

The fact that Erdogan initially had more trump cards in such a conflict, it was always obvious. And it was possible to avoid conflict by starting consultations with Erdogan about mutual interests in the region. Nevertheless, Russia seemed to provoke Turkey into conflict, and then there is a suspicion that in reality this confused plane is very at our hand.

 ** dossier **

The army of Turkey

According to the Global Power * ** * armed index, the Turkish armed forces, if nuclear weapons do not take into account, occupy the second place after the United States in their combat potential among NATO members * ** ** and close the ten most combat -ready armies of the world (Russia takes second place in this list after the United States). At the same time, the army is one of the most respected institutions of Turkish society.

The total number of personnel:

Türkiye - more than 400 thousand.

Russia - more than 760 thousand.

Reservists:

Türkiye - more than 185 thousand.

Russia - more than 2.4 million

Air Force:

Türkiye-1020 aircraft (of which fighters are 223 (F-16 series C-168 units, D-40 units, the rest-obsolete F-4)

Russia-3,500 aircraft (of which 769 fighters, 15 Su-30CM fighters are deployed at Latakia).

Ground troops:

Türkiye - 3778 tanks (of which about 300 are modern Leopard 2, the rest are older Leopard 1, M60, M48),

Russia - more than 15 thousand.

Navy:

Türkiye - 115 combat units

Russia - 352

Including the Black Sea:

Türkiye - 16 frigates, 8 corvettes, 13 diesel submarines

Russia - 1 missile cruiser, 1 large anti -submarine ship (BPK), 3 patrol ship of a long -distance sea zone, 6 small anti -submarine and 4 small missiles, 2 diesel submarines.

Source : Global Power, www.bbc.com

Bosphorus - the marble sea - Dardanella: the sea path along which the Russian military group is supplying in Syria - under the control of Turkey

Verbatim

“Both the king and Stalin would generally destroy Turkey for aggression against the Russian military aircraft. Even under the late USSR, we took a much more stringent position. There was a well-known story when Türkiye threatened to block the Bosphorus and Dardanella Strait in the late 1970s for the passage of Soviet military vessels. Then the USSR Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, communicating in an informal atmosphere with American journalists, said that the USSR would need only a couple of salvos to create two new straits to pass its ships. True, in this case Istanbul will disappear. Then Türkiye immediately abandoned its ideas. ”

(Head of the LDPR faction in the State Duma Vladimir Zhirinovsky - in the commentary for NT )

To whom to judge

An international reaction to the aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations is curious, because we are talking about a nuclear power, on the one hand, and a member of NATO, on the other. In general, the North Atlantic Alliance took a wait -and -see position. At the same time, the key figures in NATO are stirring Ankara for excessiveness, “ill -conceived actions”, then immediately declare her right to bring down planes that violate her boundaries. It was against the background of the scandal in connection with the shot down by the Russian bomber that the official invitation of Montenegro joined the Alliance, although the issue was resolved a year ago. And at the same time, from the lips of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, a call to resume the work of the Council of the Russian Federation-NATO, which was stopped a year and a half ago due to the war in Ukraine. Then this was regarded as a kind of punishment of Russia for bad behavior ...

The fact that Turkish, Syrian, Jordanian and Israeli smugglers trade in the oil of the “Islamic state”*, and everyone knew without Putin. By the way, Russia itself should remember what an illegal oil business is - in the first and second Chechen wars ...

Obviously, the Syrian project of Putin in the West is perceived as his attempt to get out of political isolation, into which he fell as a result of the Ukrainian project. The Russian president creates new problems to everyone, the solution of which implies that old, previously created, will be forgotten. And they also make it clear to him: there is such an opportunity, the doors are not closed, you only need to behave correctly. And to date, the correct behavior includes restriction of the support of Bashar al -Assad, strikeing in Syria on the militants of the Islamic State * , and not on the “free Syrian army” and, of course, the trigger of the conflict with Turkey on the brakes. The question of the Crimea on the agenda, it seems, is no longer worth it ...

Foreign military attachments after a briefing in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, at which “evidence” of the involvement of the R. Erdogan family in the smuggling of oil ISIS , Moscow, December 2, 2015

Judging by the fact that the invitation to resume consultations with NATO Moscow was accepted - the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov directly stated this on December 2 in Nicosia - she is ready to negotiate on the Middle East situation in exchange for restoring relations with the West.

Actually, this explains why Russia and Turkey did not even try to agree on the parameters of their activities in Syria, although negotiations on this subject were conducted with the United States. The whole Syrian epic was started to force the West to renew relations previously spoiled.

 **Resonance** 

What was the "Merino"

Anti-Turkish sanctions in action: In Rostov, after a large-scale check, a Russian-Turkish plant stood up. 15 workers-plugs sentenced to deportation

Alexander Sokolov, Rostov-on-Don

On the morning of December 1, representatives of the FSB, OMON, Investigative Committee and the Federal Migration Service of Russia came to the Merinos factory, which produces carpets. The reason for a large -scale audit was a statement on the presence of counterfeit products at the plant. Armed people in masks stopped production, put up protection in the corridors of the building and gathered all employees in the same room to verify documents, while other security officials looked at the documentation of the enterprise. The counterfeit was never found, but the UFMS officers detained 15 Turkish workers who taught Russian colleagues to use imported equipment. “Nobody explained anything to us, the foreigners were simply taken away and taken away, despite the fact that the visa, employment contract and other necessary documents for these people were in order,” said Svetlana Zimina, the director of the economy of the plant.

"Masks-shows" for no reason

But the check was not completed on this. OMON employee said that he saw how some kind of work enterprise came out of one of the offices, despite the security in the corridors. Immediately it was decided to remove the server on which the entire database of Merinos and the software of the machines is stored. “I turned to the head of the operation, offered to see the notes from the surveillance cameras, make sure that no one could go into the office - because the guard was in every corridor, Zimina says. - They answered me that they would take the recordings from the cameras, but they will check "at home."

Without software, the machines do not work at the plant, and the accounting department cannot work without a database - production has risen. I had to send people home.

The detained Turkish citizens spent all night in the investigative isolator, and the next morning they were taken to court, where they were accused of violating the stay regime. As a result, by the decision of the court of foreign employees of the Merinos plant, they are deported from the country, despite the current employment contract before the end of the year, if there is no decision to appeal. The leadership of Merinos cannot contact its employees, but regularly transfers food, things and hygiene products. “They were taken right from the workplace as they were. It is not known how much these people will sit in jail, also on the eve of the New Year, but we will not leave them, we will pay the salary, ”Zimina promises.

Politics has nothing to do with it?

Surprisingly, no one is in a hurry to connect an unexpected audit, the deportation of Turkish citizens and the temporary closure of the Russian-Turkish plant with a conflict between Russia and Turkey. “The leadership of the Merino plant did not turn to us for help, so we do not know any details of what happened,” says Oleg Dereza, Rostov business ombudsman. “We hope that the deportation of Turkish employees is in no way connected with politics, but we can’t say anything concrete.” Svetlana Zimina completely refutes this relationship: “We are a Russian company, on which more than 450 Russian citizens operate. And like everyone else, we are very worried about our downed bomber and do not approve of the policies that Türkiye is now underway. But do not suffer from this to our hard workers. ”

At the beginning of this year, Merinos already suspended work due to the claims of Rostekhnadzor to the documentation of the enterprise. Then the court decided to temporarily close the plant for 90 days, which was found out in Merinos only when the bailiffs came to seal the machines. How much the plant will stand now, no one knows.

“Nobody explained the reason for the search, but some say that this is somehow connected with the political situation, although no one had ever oppressed our Turkish workers, they worked calmly,” says Alexander, an employee of the plant. - Now the plant is standing, the second day I am sitting at home. I hope at least they will pay for a vacation. ”

 *(Completely material published [in article] (http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/105036) ** The New Times) ***

* “Islamic State” (IGIL), “Jabhat al-Nusra”-terrorist organizations prohibited in the Russian Federation.

* * Global Power rating takes into account both the number of armed forces, the number of equipment, and the country's GDP, its financial condition, industrial indicators, including electricity production.

* ** ** Turkey - NATO member since 1952

 *Photo: Reuters/Murad Sezer Tpx Images of the Day, Reuters/Sergei Karpukhin, Youtube.com, ABACA Press/TASS*