Protest in the future

People are our second oil, ”said the head of the presidential administration, Sergei Ivanov, at those times when the first oil cost so much that it seemed that the state will never have any problems with money. But today the first oil is around $ 40 per barrel. And the state needs money - for war, for the coverage of sacred territories, for the World Cup not yet taken away. And not least, to maintain the usual level of income for respected people who have long been thinking that they are the state. By the way, they do not quite thinklessly think.

It's time to recall the second oil. About people. And start taking the money from them, since the first oil was failing.

The case with the protests of the truckers is exceptional precisely because the state suddenly discovered: even the most loyal, saturated with propaganda, ready to write by goodwill in their heavy cars “Obama schmuck” people are not at all ready to part with money. The most loyal with lightning speed become politically savvy, learn from somewhere the name “Rotenberg” and even ready to guess-what exactly the oligarch told the president to ensure the younger son with a decent rent at their expense. And with journalists, they are not ready to share their completely loyal guesses.

At the same time, truckers are not ready to recognize their own protest political. And support from opposition politicians relate to jealous caution. And this is an object for a serious dispute: can a social protest in its pure form exist in modern Russia? And will the political problem cease to be political if it is not called it?

But the case of truckers is still a modeling way. Precisely because the authorities are not going to go anywhere and is not even going to change, and it needs money, and only from the population you can take it - new protests are almost inevitable. And now, observing how truckers are intimidated, captivated, trying to split into conflicting groups, we can assume that it will happen in the new year with new protests and new protesters.

Experts, even pro -government, confirm that the protests will be, in the risk zone - almost all social groups, from pensioners and state employees, to businessmen and middle -class residues. They can (and try) climb into a pocket to anyone. But the prospects for the success of protests - and the experience of truckers also proves this - are very doubtful. Too small readiness for self -organization, too weak the ability to see the problems of the general citizens of Russia demonstrate the ability to see problems for their own local problems. For some, this is an occasion to many sorrows, and for others-the hope of maintaining the status quo. That is - to continue the production of money from the second oil.

Photo: Kristina Kormilitsyna/Kommersant