Translated material
No idea
From our columnist at the Washington Regional Committee
US Secretary of State John Kerry will arrive in Moscow this week in an attempt to determine the general directions for resolving the Syrian and Ukrainian problems.
But Kerry's trip, which is set to meet with Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin, isn't expected to be much in Washington. Many are not even sure whether it is worth spending time on it. “Russia has stopped playing by the rules and is pursuing a dangerous course of escalation. It could end in disaster,” says a senior administration official who asked not to be named.
The State Department, where Kerry's trip is supported by departmental solidarity, reminds that Russia has taken a constructive position on Iran, which means that the same can be expected in the situation with Syria.
Another tower of the "Washington regional committee" was engaged last week in Ukraine: Vice President Joe Biden was on a visit to Kyiv, where he once again made speeches against corruption. Recall that when he denounced Ukrainian corruption the previous time, during the premiership of Yulia Tymoshenko, this was followed by the victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the elections.
Before Biden's visit to Ukraine, a delegation of members of the Rada was in Washington, among whom was the former governor of Donetsk, Sergei Taruta. According to reliable sources, he lobbied for his appointment to the post of prime minister, instead of Arseniy Yatsenyuk. So far, Biden has not found a replacement for Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian experts close to the Obama administration say, but he is actively trying to get rid of Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, who, according to Washington, is not zealous enough in fighting corruption. However, corruption is not Biden's only target. He still had to calm the hotheads in Kyiv who wanted to escalate the situation in the Donbass.
But the main destabilizing factor in the world system is not Ukraine, but bloody chaos in the Middle East. Radical Islam, the Arab Spring, Syria, the Islamic State * , terror in Paris and the Sinai - this tangle of problems cannot be unraveled either with limited military intervention, or with half measures, or with the demagoguery that the "American Zhirinovsky" demonstrates - Donald Trump .
The billionaire demanded that all Muslims be banned from entering the United States, including the military, tourists and businessmen, and that a database be created for American Muslims to keep track of them. Surely Trump will find a common language with some deputies in the State Duma. 30% of Republican voters support him, as they once supported Vladimir Volfovich in Russia. This approach further polarizes the electorate on the eve of the most difficult election campaign in the last 50 years since Barry Goldwater ** .
Unfortunately, state leaders in both the Old and New Worlds are not prepared to respond harshly but rationally to the threat of terrorism. And the opposition of interests of the powers in the region - Russia, Turkey, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran - only adds fuel to the fire. “We can’t agree on Syria with anyone or anything,” a visibly agitated official told the author the other day.
It seemed that after the horrific attacks in Paris, all those involved in the conflict had a common enemy - the Islamic State * . There is someone to be friends with.
But no. Reality is at odds with rhetoric. Interests over survival.
President Obama is not ready to send troops to Syria and Iraq. But neither his generals nor Congress are yet calling for a ground operation. It's easy to accuse Obama of being inactive and not offering anything in return. Hillary Clinton has called for "no-fly zones" in Syria, but without an agreement with the Kremlin, this is completely unrealistic.
At a recent Atlantic Council conference in Istanbul, where this author also spoke, First Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken convinced the audience that in 18 months there would be no Assad in Syria and free elections would be held. Blessed are those who believe...
The resignation of Assad, put forward by the West as the main condition for cooperation with Russia, is unrealistic in the current balance of power. So far, the new, photogenic Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced the withdrawal of six F18 aircraft from the conflict zone. The beginning of the bombing of ISIS * French, British and German air forces will not turn the tide of the war.
Russian forces are actively bombing the Syrian opposition, protecting the Assad regime, which, in turn, wants to remove the Sunni Arabs and Turks, but the Shiites - and Russia - save.
The recent terrorist attacks in Sinai and Paris could have served as a unifying force for Moscow and the coalition, but the downed Russian bomber puts an end to such plans. At least in the short term. The Kremlin reacted in the best traditions of Russian diplomacy - Delenda est.
The answer to the newly minted enemy was a ban on the import of its products. Thus, in addition to cheese from the EU, consumers will no longer be able to buy vegetables from Turkey, Gazprom will not be able to build the Turkish Stream, and Rosatom will not be able to build a huge nuclear plant in Akkuyu.
This is the first act of the play. A day after the loss of the aircraft, the S-400 air defense system division was removed from its posts in the Moscow region and sent to Syria. This modern anti-aircraft and anti-missile system is capable of hitting targets at distances up to 400 km and at altitudes up to 185 km.
Together with the Moskva missile cruiser standing on the roadstead off the coast of Latakia (which is already being assisted by the Varyag cruiser), this makes the Russian grouping in Syria a fairly powerful fist - at least in a war against enemies without an air force and armored forces. And neither ISIS * nor the Free Syrian Army have them.
This changes the balance of power in the region. Unfortunately, the bloody Russia-Türkiye match is not over yet. The diverging interests of Washington, Ankara and Moscow on the future of Syria could lead to even greater confrontation. And although neither Washington, nor Moscow, nor Ankara want a big war, such a possibility should not be ruled out.
The White House and the Pentagon will put pressure on Turkey if the situation starts to spiral out of control and if a new Russo-Turkish war is on the horizon.
Obama is consistently trying to resolve conflicts not only with Russia, but also with Iran. And the Turks and Arabs see the main conflict of the Sunnis not with ISIS , but with Shiite Iran.
To do this, they need to forge the main ally of the ayatollahs - rapidly impoverishing Russia. But Türkiye alone cannot compete with Russia. Together with the Arabs, she may try to lure her deeper into the Syrian sands, and there begin to bleed.
to talk about broad cooperation against ISIS . Therefore, unfortunately, it is not necessary At least for now. The escalation of the conflict between the coalition of NATO and Sunni countries and the Russia-Syria-Iran axis will not lead to the achievement of the main goal - the destruction of ISIS * . In the highest echelons of power in Washington today there is no clear understanding of how to defeat ISIS * in Syria and Iraq, nor a strategy to combat terrorism at home.
There is no reaction in Washington to Russia's lamentations because of the invitation of Montenegro to join NATO. On the contrary, newspapers write about the corruption of Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. Previously, this feature of the prime minister suited Moscow, but now it suits Brussels and Washington. Politicians have learned well to turn a blind eye to the corruption of prosecutors and prime ministers, and use the fight against corruption as a tool to settle scores.
Not much has changed since the days of the Roman Republic.
* "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS, DAISH) - an organization banned in the Russian Federation
** Barry Goldwater - American politician, Republican, ultra-conservative, participated in the 1964 presidential election. Lost to Democrat Lyndon Johnson, receiving 38% of the popular vote, but only 52 electoral votes.