Translated material
Is your most optimistic scenario for 2016?
On snowless pre -holiday days, Colta.ru shares the overall alarm and offers readers a certain number of forecasts for the future. Bad and good - who likes what more.
Stanislav Belkovsky
Dmitry Butrin
Maxim Goryunov
Oleg Kashin
Grigory Okhotin
Gleb Pavlovsky
Mikhail Pozharsky
Kirill Rogov
Harun Sidorov
Lyudmila Ulitskaya
Sergey Shargunov
Victor Shenderovich
Ekaterina Shulman
Oleg Kashin
publicist
In order for 2016 to seem the best in history, the 2017 should be some particularly monstrous. This is not difficult-now, from the point of view of normal life, both 2012 and 2013 seem exemplary, although many contemporaries, including me, in those years said that Russia came to some completely terrible state. If Putin’s regime collapses in 2017, Russia will plunge, as many are waiting for, in bloody chaos, hunger and war will begin-in this case 2016 has a chance to remember as a relatively good one.
Gleb Pavlovsky
political scientist
Today, the rule of good tone is a description of the future as a disaster. But if you recall the previous disasters, then we see that not a single exit, not a single growth factor, whether it is the presence of reserves in the economy or the growth of raw materials, were predicted. Today we can assume that we simply do not see a positive factor x . Moreover, it can be assumed that our catastrophic paintings are somehow related to our power method. Each time the cries of “wolves-wolves!” Were heard, the wolves themselves shouted, lambs escaped their scream. This year there will be great privatization - of course, it will not lead to the development of private property. But she will create such a gastronomic excitement in the apparatus of the authorities that she will eat less people and more by state -likes.
Recently, we have seen a number of small private victories of citizens over the attempts of the apparatus to devour active people: the liberation of Evgeny Vitishko , partially pardoned truckers. This year this process will be preserved. Moreover, the Duma elections will take a huge number of hardware figures, and this in itself will distract the threats, expand the space of autonomous human life and economic activity. In general, our system, I would say, is a three -party woman. There is a Kremlin party - today it is a party of moderate dismantling of the system. There is a batch of victims - it consists of business and state subsystems transferred to a consumable resource. And the third party, which is usually called the “overwhelming majority”, but I would call it “Praetorian” is a party receiving a moderate fee for its place in the auditorium. And in the coming year, a struggle will go between them, which in a sense will politically revive our life.
The Duma elections will occupy hardware figures, and this will distract the threats, expand the space of autonomous life and economic activity.
Ekaterina Shulman
political scientist
A decrease in the usual hydrocarbon income makes the state look for alternative sources of budget replenishment of all levels. Only citizens can be such sources - both in individual quality (residents, buyers, motorists or tourists), and collectively (large, small and medium -sized businesses). However, unlike the silent subsoil, from which the incomes were extracted before, citizens are inclined to either resent with new trials, or demand something in return. They will have to negotiate with them-to partially intimidate the protesters, partially specify, to give way to the groups of interests in something, try not to deplete their own feed base. This is a much more healthy model of relations between the state and society than the usual paternalistic "we feed you for nothing, you are silently grateful to us."
The parliamentary elections of September 2016 will be held according to the new rules: half of the Duma will be elected according to the lists, half - in single -member districts. These elections will be not so much about the party as about candidates. The idea “We will carry out disguised united Russia under the guise of independent single -mandate” seems extremely insidious, but in fact it is naive. First of all, in order to get through in the district, it is not enough to hide a party card-we must at least somehow impress the voter. Not every unicorn is capable of this - you will have to look for passing candidates. More importantly, it will be more difficult and more expensive in the Duma with single-mandates than with the listers-it is more difficult to put pressure on such a deputy, frightening him with a loss of space (you can take away the mandate, but then you will have to carry out missions in the same district). How new deputies in the Duma will behave, now you can’t predict: their previous oaths in loyalty can easily be a fiction under the pressure of changed socio-economic circumstances. In any case, the trade of everyone with everyone is a much more healthy model of parliamentarism than the current linear discipline, interspersed with chaotic attacks of individual PR active.
Only citizens can be a source of budget replenishment, they will have to negotiate with them. This is a healthier model than the paternalistic "we feed you for nothing, you are silently grateful to us."
Maxim Goryunov
philosopher
Since the fall of 2013, each new day was to the right of the previous one. The concentration of beards, shawls, susal gold and the cult of the war per unit space grew exponentially. Next year, Russia, apparently, will continue to be intensively right until it becomes completely and caricatured bearded, susal and warlike. And this, in fact, is wonderful. After all, it is known that no preacher, if he was even the Apostle Paul, cannot convince a person of the harmfulness of his dreams. The words are powerless until the person himself is packed until he burns his forehead into the wall. Only when the dream became the past and the past turned out to be terrible, people abandon this dream. The favorite dreams of Russians of the last two decades-about the empire, about greatness, about the two-headed Orel, who open the wing over the Bosphorus-will be so vulgarized next year, they will come in and so expensive that, presumably, they will finally abandon them and find new ones. Not so cannibalnious, not so barbaric, not so infantile. That is, you need to wait for the Russians in 2016, having begun to save on potatoes, they will become smarter. Over the past thirty years, they have already become wiser about communism, wild capitalism, and, let's hope, from day to day they will grow wiser about the empire.
Kirill Rogov
publicist
Oil for $ 35 during the year - it will be very good for Russia, because the low cost of hydrocarbons stimulates a return to some normality, will demonstrate the need to engage in the country, and the population has the need to work. For the past 20 years, we have practically no progress in economic growth: we fell by 40%in the 90s, then doubled, that is, from the initial level, they grown just a little. And since 2008, we have been around it. All our troubles stem from the fact that expensive oil provokes structural degradation of the economy and institutions. And with cheap raw materials at first everything will be worse, but we will find the place that corresponds to our development, and we will be able to build some strategies. And vice versa, if the price is about $ 60, then it will be bad, because it will create the illusion of further growth of quotations. We will have a resource in order to somehow television again-degradation will go further, and the more difficult it will be more difficult to get out.
Victor Shenderovich
writer, publicist
I honestly do not see any optimistic scenario. They all lie between bad, very bad and even catastrophic, if you leave aside the possibility of a miracle. We already see a sharp increase in repression before the New Year: landing, searches. The authorities are simply nowhere else to go, it tears everything outside and screws up everything inside. This is one option. The second option is, unfortunately, very serious social cataclysms. All European possibilities of a change of power were computered by Vladimir Vladimirovich himself, he did not leave himself a choice. Further options for his fate are in the range between Mugaba and Gaddafi, and he knows that. Therefore, there will be a screw of nuts to the stop or a social explosion.
Mikhail Pozharsky
publicist
The usual Russia of fat oil years is the fruit of an informal balance of forces, a backstage agreement concluded between representatives of the executive branch (“security forces”) and rich from state corporations, largest banks and other organizations that are still holding faded scraps of the Russian economy. Agreements and agreements, of course, had a purely informal and backstage in nature - hence the almost complete inoperance of public institutions, the absence of independent political parties and other features of Russian life. In 2014, the balance was violated - the decision -making center shifted towards the rogue -mixed people like Rogozin, the country got involved in the war of sanctions (and just a war), the largest companies suffered huge losses, having lost financing in the western markets. And, for example, Gazprom was left without one of his favorite offspring - the South Stream project.
It would be strange to assume that the losers are satisfied with this movement - nobody likes the poor thing. And for sure they are trying to influence the situation - through the usual informal communication channels. But what will happen when they finally understand that these channels stopped working? Maybe then they will decide to bet on half -dead institutions? For example, take some plywood part like “fair Russia” (just suitable to saddle social dissatisfaction), wash it from dirt and lackey and go into real politics, where are the elections and public competition?
In general, next year we have a chance to see marvelous - how the management of state and simply loyal before large companies will fly off the coils and will begin to play public policy. And it will be more like real competitive elections than all that we saw the previous 15 years. Just like in adults.
In the coming year, IS will cease to exist as a territorial “state” and mutates in a network extraterritorial structure.
Harun Sidorov
Islamic world expert
In any case, Russia will not be able to get painlessly from the Syrian ball, since the consolidation against it of the entire Sunni world was the strategic consequence of its clumsy entry there. It can be bogged down even deeper if you decide on a full -fledged ground operation. As for the unraveling of the Syrian tangle itself, in the most optimistic for the world community (but not for the direct participants in the war), the conflict can occur in a ceasefire and the political process with periodically resuming military operations. Theoretically, this would be a good reason for Russia to declare their goals and get out of the fighting regime, but almost the Kremlin is unlikely to use it.
As for the IG (forbidden in Russia. - Ed. ), I agree with the forecast of Assange, who believes that in the next year, IS will cease to exist as a territorial “state” and mutates in a network extraterritorial structure, which more or less effectively manifests itself in various parts of Islamic and not only the world.
In general, the Islamic UMMU in the near future awaits very difficult times due to growing Islamophobia and attempts to consolidate all anti-Islamic forces, which, however, are unlikely to be successful. The only positive trend against this background I consider the emerging consolidation of the Sunni countries around the Türkiye axis - Saudi Arabia. In this case, the role of a peculiar adapter between them can be played by the “Muslim Brothers” or movements, which inherited their approach “Political Islam”, limited by the framework of the Sunni world. As for the Islam of Russia, in the strategic perspective, the separation of grains is positive, no matter how few of them, from the chases, however many of them. By grains, I mean thinking Muslims, who got rid of or rapidly getting rid of illusions regarding the possibilities of normal existence in the conditions of Putin's Russia. Under the tares - those whose cyblah instead of Mecca became the Kremlin.
The Russian-Turkish conflict will most likely acquire the character of the Cold War, and it will have long-term consequences, including for the Islamic factor in the post-Soviet space. If Turkey succeeds, on the one hand, to formalize the regional Sunni Union and achieve a solution to the Syrian problem taking into account its interests, and on the other hand, to gain a foothold in the niche of the Western ally in the Islamic world, it can begin to play more actively in the post -Soviet Islamic direction, becoming the Center for the Muslims of Muslims in the Kremlin peak.
Grigory Okhotin
publicist, activist
Optimistic script for 2016? In the first half of the year, we stop surgery in Syria and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. As a result, most of the economic sanctions are removed from us. In connection with the inexpensive oil, we first begin the liberal reform in the economy, which will be associated, in particular, with the change of Prime Minister and someone in the presidential administration. Against the background of some recovery of relations with the West and the cessation of wars in the elections in September, opposition parties Parnas and Yabloko are held, they receive a majority or form a fairly large faction, and political liberalization begins. After that, we return to some norm, without any revolutions, without large cataclysms such as a coup to the top. This positive scenario is completely real, it is quite in the possibilities of the current regime, but, most likely, nothing will happen. But even if this does not happen, civil society will grow and develop in 2016.
Stanislav Belkovsky
publicist
The source of my optimism is the crisis of the Russian economy. Obviously, oil prices will remain low in the medium term. They will be significantly below $ 50 per barrel laid down in the budget. This means that by the end of 2016, reserve funds will be exhausted. The policy of import substitution does not promise us anything good, because import substitution is impossible without access to foreign financial technologies. This is a vicious circle: import substitution is dictated by the lack of this access, but it is impossible without it. All these ordeals - twisting of the nuts in domestic policy and restricting ownership of capital and real estate abroad - will lead to the aggravation of the alienation of Russian elites from the president in the last two years. True, there is no mechanism for converting this alienation in a particular policy, and the president, who is still protected by his loyal troops and the support of the majority of the people, will sit on the throne as much as he will please. But optimism stems from pessimism. We live in such a country in which, until the thunder is awake, the man does not cross. Therefore, the source of optimism is the same source as the thunder.
Sergey Shargunov
writer
I would like that in 2016 the economy would not collapse, so that the real, rather than declarative support was received to be received by those who are trying to do their job, contrary to the raw materials in the country's scale. I mean both production and people from small and medium -sized businesses. I would like the year 2016 to become the year of the inconsistent struggle against shameless and large -scale theft and this very notorious “struggle against corruption” was manifested through real, significant, visible blows to large fish. Whether this year will be able to become a time of exiting simulacra or ambiguities will become larger - the question is not idle. Next year, people who are commonly called conservatives, and people who are commonly called progressists have found more in common - contrary to pain, passion, anger - and realized that human rights and dignity are completely interconnected. Because the people consist of ordinary citizens who need a wide variety of protection: from abbreviations, requisitions, humiliations, helplessness and so on. I would also like to note what is important for me personally as a writer. 2015 passed under fanfares as a year of literature, but I did not have the impression that something significant had happened in this area. Unfortunately, libraries and bookstores were closed. On the other hand, it is important for the writer and reader when the year of literature is every year, and in this sense I hope that new good books will appear in 2016. And I expect that in early 2016 my book will be released, on which I worked for several years - the biography of Valentin Petrovich Kataev.
A collection of new Russian poetry is the best that can happen to the country next year.
Dmitry Butrin
publicist
Let us imagine that in April 2016 the government will discuss the next stage in the implementation of the anti -crisis plan. Oil will cost $ 26 per barrel, but at the same time grow a little, and before that it cost $ 22. The prime minister will act, but this will not worry anyone: two ministers will bury in the IP Ad , and the other two in a small book. The book will be simple, white, in a paper cover, the name in one word. Subtle, 50 pages. In a week, it will quote Lesha Navalny on the blog, as well as Kiselev in his gear (but he will not work out very much). On the network, the book will be dispersed quite quickly, and during the year quotes from it will appear in oral speech, in programs, in blogs - everywhere. Nothing will happen anymore; Oil will grow to $ 36, or maybe it will remain at $ 28, but it will not be at all important - in this book there will be what Osip Mandelstam did not have time to finish: a collection of new Russian poetry. И это лучшее, что может случиться со страной в следующем году. Потому что когда происходит такое, то вам все равно, сколько нефть стоит, — мы же тут не ради ВВП сидим. Тогда я буду считать, что это самый лучший год.
Lyudmila Ulitskaya
writer
На самом деле я очень оптимистически отношусь к миру, который должен вот-вот погибнуть (и мы все к этому дружно движемся). Но я совершенно уверена, что мы должны жить хорошо — во всех смыслах. И, главным образом, психологически. И эту отвратительную, отравленную атмосферу, в которой мы живем, нужно стряхивать и продолжать жить так, как мы считаем нужным и правильным. Это дело не завтрашнего дня и будущего года. И если усилия что-то соображающих людей каким-то образом будут объединены, то у нас есть надежда выжить — но не очень большая. Предпосылки для осуществления такого сценария — это то, что мы еще живы и говорим об этом. Так что оптимистического прогноза у меня нет, но настроение хорошее.