Until the end of life

Vladislav Inozemtsev - that Putin is not interested in the economy, but there will be no disaster

"The stories that the regime is declining ... He is declining, but it is like the decline of the Roman Empire, which lasted hundreds of years. I think we will completely calmly go through 2016 and 2018, and what will happen next will not be visible now."

The famous Russian economist and publicist Vladislav Inozemtsev, with whom we discussed the results of 2015 and the prospects of the future, not only does not share the opinions of many about the near collapse of Putin's regime due to growing economic problems, but even, it seems, is a little surprised at the conversation about possible protests and budget disasters.

At the same time, the background for the conversation was a new record decrease in the course of the Russian currency. On December 30, he reached the lowest level in the year: 73 rubles 20 kopecks per dollar . The fall in oil prices, the confrontation with the West because of Ukraine, the operation in Syria and, as a result, the conflict with Turkey, sanctions and antisancations, but the foreigners are sure that there will be no disaster:

- In the economy, I think we will see the continuation of the current trends: an attack on business, attempts to increase taxes, more rigid regulation of everything and everything. And as a result - the continuation of the decline. I do not think that it will be very radical, unlike what many say, this is just such a further recession at the level of 2.5–4 percent per year. I think this will be the most realistic scenario for the next year - the continuation of the recession, the deterioration of the entrepreneurial climate, the dominance of politics over the economy. What we saw this year will continue. But I do not see any catastrophic scenario. This whole system has a large margin of safety and will exist with varying degrees of success for many years, I am sure.

The worst person in the Russian Federation’s management is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

- There was talk that former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin could return to the authorities . Can power try, tougher measures against public protests, at the same time liberalize something in the economy?

- I am very positive about Alexei Leonidovich, but such close attention to individual personnel decisions seems very exaggerated to me. The system consists of a huge number of interests, all of them, including the first person, are engaged in pockets exclusively, and we see this according to many decisions. No system options for getting out of the crisis are considered. The bureaucracy and security forces as a single block are so strong that, if Kudrin appeared there, certain decisions will be made that will be partially improved, but that the appearance of Alexei Leonidovich can radically change the course, I would not say. This can extend the existence of the system, probably. Actually, Kudrin was the initiator of all those reforms that led, in fact, to the current situation. Who, if not Kudrin, squeezed out all the regions and centralized the budget at the federal level? He created a reserve fund. Now, in fact, the authorities are successfully using both know-how Kudrin-a centralized budget and a reserve fund. Well, now he will return back, and you think liberalism will come right there?

- That is, Putin cannot do anything now, because the system has a grandiose inertia ...

-No, no, Putin can actually do everything! But it will not do this. Because he created this system, and this system is absolutely Putin, and any problem of this system comes from Putin, and not vice versa. No need to tell that we have a good president and bad ministers. The worst person in the management of the Russian Federation is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin! The most incompetent and aimed at the complete degradation of all institutions.

Napoleon ordered not to extinguish the light in his tent so that the army believes that he was thinking about it

- Maybe there is an agreement inside the elite and therefore he actually cannot change anything in the economy?

- No, I do not support this point of view. Maybe there is some kind of contract, but, once again I repeat, Putin can change everything that will consider it necessary, but he simply does not consider it necessary to do this. The economy does not interest him at all! He imagined himself to be new Stalin in foreign policy - a new world order, division into blocks, new zones of influence in Europe ... More than this person is not interested in anything at all today!

- But the last messages that Putin is concerned about the economy, Putin meets the ministers ...

-Do you have any confirmation that he is concerned to her?

- Well, Bloomberg, citing its sources, reported that the president was concerned and met with his assistants several times in recent months to discuss the fall in the country in the country.

- You know, this is how Napoleon ordered not to extinguish the light in his tent or in the house in the house of 1812, where he stopped at the rest so that the army believes that the emperor constantly thinks about it. I think that Putin’s ritual statements that he is concerned about the economy and meets the ministers, exactly for this.

When there are no financial flows, there is nothing to saw

- Does he not concern the possibility of social protests as a result of a fall in the standard of living of people?

- I think it doesn't bother. And I agree with him in this, because I do not see the grounds for social protest. The people are too passive. Its economy can be disturbed because the entire system of power is built to enrich from financial flows. When there are no financial flows, there is nothing to saw, and this causes, of course, tension in the elites. I think that Putin’s connection with the economy is limited to this circumstance. That is, at the top begins, possibly, a certain tension, because a certain level of sawing was reached, which is now impossible to preserve. I'm not saying that what is cut out, becomes much less valuable in the dollar calculus.

This moment, I think, really reaches Putin, due to the fact that there are people who are able to convey it to him. When the Rotenbergs come and drink another piece in the form of Plato, this is just an indicator that people of ordinary sources of income cease to be enough. This is a significant moment for Putin. He thinks in this way: we must give everyone, but no longer, so it bothers me, how I promised everyone, but I can’t give it, and people go to me. I think this is a consciousness of this level.

When your oil prices are falling, then what to protest against?

As for the protest: it seems to me that waiting for protests on economic grounds is not worth it for the reason that a tradition has developed in Russia - probably not very good, but it has developed - economic problems are perceived as objective. That is, if you have some kind of tsapok in Kushchevka, who kills people, you understand that there is a tsapok, against whom you can go out and tell Putin: "Take a tsapka!" And when your oil prices are falling, then what to protest against? After all, Putin is not to blame that the price is falling. There are some survival strategies here, you need to get a new job, pay less taxes, earn extra money somewhere on the side, and come up with the possibilities of saving. And this is done at the personal level. Rational people will strive - and our people are very rational, I think - to survive, and not try to protest on the basis that inflation has accelerated.

Zero probability!

- There are protests of the truckers, and Plato is such a narrow -minded thing that caused a social protest. Now they say that they will not index pensions to working pensioners . And then they will press someone else.

- There is a circumstance that you, it seems to me, underestimate. They did not index your pension-they did not give you something, they promised to increase, but not raised. With Plato, a completely different situation is taken away from you, you had money, and they tell you: give it away. And this is a completely different situation compared to the fact that you have not been raised by payment or benefit. The second, if all pensioners do not raise pensions, this is a national problem that does not have an addressee. And if you, hard workers, take money from your pocket and put in your pocket a specific oligarch with a named afternight, this raises questions. It seems to me that we have the biggest problem in the popular mind - the impossibility of response to depersonified actions. Now, if we have a Dalniy police department in Tatarstan, there we raped a person with a bottle of man, then yes, we will go there, build under the windows and protest. And if this is something more global, there will be no protests.

-That is, there is no danger that the people somehow personify the crisis in the person of Vladimir Putin and be lined up under the windows of the Kremlin?

- Zero probability!

- Fine. You say that Putin lacks money, and this means that he owes his whole system?

Putin for these many years got used to a certain lightness at the disposal of money

-No, no, he should not. I do not think that there are some formal obligations. The problem is just that Putin has been used to a certain lightness at the disposal of money over these many years. And this ease is part of his lifestyle, that is, we can all. Olympiad for 50 billion - there are no problems, Russian island - no questions, raise pensions, re -engage in the army - please. But now problems begin with this. And in this case, the issue of the economy does not bother him from the point of view that unemployment has grown or income from the population has decreased, but just "I can’t paint as much money as I would like to right and left, as I always did before."

- He should worry the state of the economy from the point of view that it is involved in an expensive military operation, re -equipping the army.

- Let's be more specific. He is concerned about the budget. Outside the lines of budget painting, it seems to me that nothing worries him.

What limits a person who considers himself absolutely omnipotent?

- Can a crisis, if it develops in such a vein, to strike not on social obligations that will be reduced first, but already according to Putin's capabilities in foreign policy? For example, he will face the fact that there is not enough money for an operation in Syria, the rearmament of the fleet, the army, and the aircraft. Or does he have enough money for this?

- I think that it is enough. Well, what is a war in Syria, for example? The cost of this war is like several medium sizes of military exercises. No need to overestimate costs. There is enough money for this. The re -equipment of the army, yes, can drag on, but this process is calculated until 2020. We never end in us, and you can tighten it for several years. Slightly reduce the amount of money allocated for defensemen ... I do not think that this is a topic that is on the agenda tomorrow. Of course, you say correctly that the situation will become more complicated, but the question is exclusively in time, in my opinion, how quickly it will become more complicated and what consequences it will have. I believe that it will not become more quickly.

- Putin is attributed to the logic that he is trying to divert attention from economic problems with bright foreign policy actions, and these actions are more and more often. Wait for them to continue? Or is Putin now limiting something?

- This is a question that I have no answer to. How can we know what limits a person who considers himself absolutely omnipotent? I don't know.

“Does he consider himself omnipotent?”

- I think that for a long time at the level of such inadequate consciousness.

When he understands that he has a concrete wall in front of him, he stops

“But something, apparently, limits him.” For example, he suspended an operation in eastern Ukraine, and many even believe that he leaves there.

- It is limited only by the possibilities of response to force. That is, when they explain to him that if he takes Mariupol, then there will be NATO troops in Ukraine, it holds him. I think that Putin is a fundamentally rational person. He very well evaluates the situation, and in those moments when he is given the opportunity to act ahead of the lead, he acts, and he succeeds very well. But when he understands that he was in front of him, he stops. Moreover, for this we need a specific person, or the state, or a system of action. That is, if Obama calls him, Kerry arrives and says that “it will be so, if you do it,” comes to him. If we are talking about economic problems, when oil prices are falling there, supposedly objectively and, perhaps, for some conspiracy, as it seems to him, it comes much slower.

- His actions worsen the economy, but there are no restraining things for it, are there only strength and threat of force?

“I can be mistaken, but it seems to me that this is approximately so.” It seems to me that for Putin there is no factor of the people, their relationship. Look, the same Türkiye is certainly in a situation that happened, some answer was needed. What I would do in the place of Putin - I would instantly blocked the "blue stream". And Türkiye would be put in a very difficult position. But Putin does not want to punish Gazprom with a restriction of supplies to Turkey, he will better put in an inconvenient position of all pensioners who will not buy fruits and vegetables. The people are some kind of cattle, running and interfering with living. And Gazprom is important.

System without brakes

- So, there is no logic that is often attributed to him - to distract the attention of the people with the help of foreign policy actions?

- Listen, when you have support - 85 percent, what attention will you distract? Do you want it to be 140? Not to mention the fact that he is informed by assistants about the mood of the population, even objectively the mood of the population is absolutely passage. Why need to invest in improving your popularity?

- And then what is limited at all Putin?

- Now he is objectively not limited. But the last 10 years it has been. Who and when stood in his way? Yes, in fact, no one. Therefore, what we see in recent years happened. When for 10 years you can do whatever you want, and it turns out a system without brakes. I am not saying that this is bad, it is just a fact. There are no emotions. You must understand that Putin is not good and not bad, not a demon, not an angel, but this is a person who was formed all these years and formed like that. I absolutely do not understand whether he can change.

- In 2016, there will be Duma elections, then the presidential election. It is clear that in Russia elections are a specific design, but, on the other hand, even for such modes, the election is some internal shock. Can you expect something from this?

- I don't understand what you can wait here, what kind of shock in Russia is the elections? Here they chose a democratic mayor in Petrozavodsk - two years later they were quietly removed. And what? Imagine that 10 independent deputies will take place in the Duma. It seems to me that the elections can change the system interface to some extent, but not its functioning.

What can you see that Putin was going to leave the Kremlin?

-Talk about Medvedev-2018. People close to Medvedev can try to change something inside the elite?

“I would say that this is a very strange conversation.” First, what do we see in Medvedev? When Medvedev was appointed Prime Minister, everyone said that it was for several months. I said that this is until the end of the Putin term, at least to the Duma elections. Putin, with all his features, is a person who keeps promises quite well. And the agreement between him and Medvedev was very clear, and from all sides these promises were fulfilled. Medvedev is therefore so clear and stands in this clip that it does not pretend to be any new castling, until Putin wants to. To see Putin some desire to leave again-I have no reason for this at all. I do not know what it follows, as if Putin was about to leave the Kremlin. I do not see a single sign of this.

The camp of Medvedev people is largely destroyed

On the contrary, the whole emergency, which is pumped up, just emphasizes that in such a situation it is not Dmitry Anatolyevich to steer. Therefore, I do not think that something will be changed in 2018. It seems to me that the camp of Medvedev people is largely destroyed. That is, by 2012 or by the end of 2011, Dmitry Anatolyevich had a rather serious support group of support - business, intellectuals, and politicians. But the fact that Medvedev did not go to the 2012 elections, this group ... It seems to me that many people who were sincerely for Medvedev then will not follow him now. And as far as we can say that there are liberals around Medvedev, and around Putin is siloviki ... It seems to me that this is a somewhat primitive understanding! For me, the question is not whether you are a security forces or a liberal, but whether you are a thief or not. And it seems to me that such people are surrounded by both.

What did he not achieve?

- Well, he has no plans to change. But you can imagine what he wants, what is he achieved?

- It seems to me that Putin wants to leave a kind of memory of himself, that he came to Russia when it was collapsed and humiliated, and leave from there or end life in a country that will be a strong world power. This is the most important for him! Он хочет не восстановить Советский Союз, может быть, но восстановить политическое влияние России до квазисоветских уровней. Чтобы постсоветское пространство было полной его зоной влияния, чтобы с Россией разговаривали на равных американцы, и европейцы, и прочее-прочее. Я думаю, что для него сегодня самое важное – именно мегапроект такого геополитического ренессанса. И к этому он стремится, может быть, не очень успешно.

– Но он понимает, что за последние два года, на самом деле, он добился прямо противоположного?

- No. А почему он должен понимать? Вы посмотрите, сколько народа каждую неделю, то в Москву, то в Сочи, прилетает: то госсекретарь, то французский президент, то короли ближневосточных стран. Он считает, что он – пуп земли! В "Тайм" – "Человек года". Любой рейтинг ведущих политиков – главная политическая фигура в мире. Чего он не добился?

– Но в результат все бывшее постсоветское пространство пытается как-то отойти от него, а некоторые убегают со всех ног. Экономика ухудшается. Неужели мерило влиятельности – госсекретари и президенты? "Газпром" испытывает проблемы, и Путин, наверное, знает об этом. У "Роснефти" тоже проблемы, сейчас тренд, нисходящий по всем направлениям. Даже для него, в тех координатах, которые вы задаете.

– Я не могу сказать, к сожалению, что у него есть такой критерий.

Путин пробудет во главе Российской Федерации до конца жизни

– Как вы считаете, 2016 год будет более жестким, чем 2015-й, внутри страны, для населения, и с точки зрения военных кампаний, военных действий?

– А 2015-й был чем так сильно?..

– Боевые действия на востоке Украины, в России убили Немцова, операция в Сирии, я уже не говорю о состоянии российской экономики.

– Такого рода проблемы будут и дальше. Нас могут еще больше не любить все, и я думаю, что на Украине еще не все успокоилось. Проблемы будут, но не могу сказать, что они будут сильнее. Я думаю, все будет так же, как и было. Мне не кажется, что наступающий год будет каким-то совершенно не похожим на несколько предыдущих лет с точки зрения катастрофичности.

– Когда вы говорите о том, что экономика не предвещает ничего катастрофического, это значит, что Путин может спокойно пробыть на своем посту до конца этого президентского срока, въехать в следующий и пробыть до конца следующего?

– Я об этом писал многократно, что Путин пробудет во главе Российской Федерации до конца своей жизни, когда бы она ни закончилась. Это очевидно, по-моему, уже не первый день.

– И на горизонте не появилось ничего, что бы помешало ему это сделать?

– Не вижу.