Russian longing for Trump

Donald Trump's phenomenon and the future of American-Russian relations

Did the Kremlin manage to break out of isolation in 2015? Is it possible to warming American-Russian relations in 2016? Is Donald Trump a symbol of new winds of perestroika? Trump - as the embodiment of the dreams of Russians about strong America?

We are talking about the results of the year and prospects of American-Russian relations with the former assistant to the US Secretary of State, an employee of the Institute John McCain David Cremerer ; an employee of the Guuver Institute , Yuri Yarym-Agaev ; Political scientist, professor of George Mason University Eric Shiryaev and professor of economics, Helevertord College in Pennsylvania Vladimir Kondorovich .

What can be said about the evolution of American-Russian relations in 2015? The Kremlin insists that he tore off the US attempt to isolate himself and established himself as a significant international force. Official Washington speaks much more in this regard.

“I would call the results of the year for Putin ambiguous,” says David Kremer . - On the one hand, the French president paid him a visit after terrorist actions in Paris, Angel Merkel comes into contact with him as part of the so -called Norman process. It is difficult to call the Kremlin isolation, which President Obama stated at his goal at the beginning of the year. But, on the other hand, international sanctions remain in force, moreover, the United States has recently somewhat expanded their action. Secretary of State John Kerry talks a lot about the need to involve Russia in the resolution of the Syrian crisis, but all this looks like his personal initiative of rapprochement with Moscow. President Obama did not show much enthusiasm on this occasion. He spoke several times with President Putin. However, this, apparently, did not bring any practical benefits to the Kremlin. We can say that Putin has somewhat strengthened his position, but did not achieve the desired complete success.

- The Kremlin insists that his Syrian initiative led to a breakdown of the international isolation of Moscow and turned it into a large global player, with whom they are forced to reckon. How do you like this interpretation of the results of the year?

Indeed, the isolation policy has remained in the past. We interact with Russia on a much larger scale than just a few months ago

- Indeed, the isolation policy has remained in the past. We interact with Russia on a much larger scale than just a few months ago. By the end of 2015, Ukraine, at least, publicly faded into the background in American-Russian relations and Syria received priority. Such a turn of events personally worries me, because the Kremlin does not deserve confidence. He does not fulfill his obligations within the framework of the Minsk agreements. His intervention in Syria has created additional problems. Russian massive bombing of the positions of groups opposing the Assad regime entailed a new wave of refugees, aggravated a humanitarian catastrophe. There is no doubt that the Kremlin’s goal is Assad's support. In such a situation, to put it mildly, it is naive to count on the fact that you can agree with Moscow. But I would not be in a hurry to call the Syrian Demarch of the Kremlin with great success. He really forced the Western capitals to change the approach to relations with Moscow. At the same time, Russia got involved in a conflict in which it is impossible to prevail. Apparently, more than two hundred Russians, passengers of the airliner, blown up over Sinai, were victims of this conflict. I suspect that sooner or later Putin will regret this step about it.

- In the meantime, Washington will continue to look for contact points with Moscow in the hope of resolving the Syrian crisis?

It seems that the Secretary of State Kerry maintains his own line in relations with Moscow

- I think there is a difference in the approach to relations with Russia from the White House and from the State Department. I and not only have the impression that Secretary of State Kerry maintains his own line in relations with Moscow. Obviously, President Obama is not yet pulling him, but, apparently, the president does not feel such a serious enthusiasm regarding the possibility of cooperation with Moscow, as Secretary of State Kerry. I suspect that in 2016, illusions about this will be thrown back and the White House will consider the Kremlin not as a potential partner in solving the problem, but as part of the problem.

- What can be expected from President Obama in the field of foreign policy in the last year of the presidency? Continuation of the previous line?

- It is very difficult to say. Most of the presidents in the last year of their presidency are trying to bring their track record into a more appropriate look, restore previously undermined relations with important countries. We can recall that in April 2008, President Bush Jr. went to Sochi, trying to defuse the tension in bilateral relations, accumulated in previous years. All these attempts ended in nothing after Russia's invasion of Georgia a few months later. In other words, I would not exclude the likelihood that the Obama administration will want to improve relations with Russia. But such attempts, I think, are doomed to failure because of Putin's position. Therefore, the next American administration will most likely take a tough position, ”says David Kremer.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, how, from your point of view, did you distinguish 2015?

“ I would call retroactively-this is the year of the carpet, under which all the unresolved problems that were in it have saved,” says Yuri Yarym-Agayev . - In fact, this is the most characteristic thing that it was the year of the irritation of all problems. What problems it began, with the same it ended. They did not expel the invaders from the territory of Donbass, ISIS spread even further, the situation in Syria was even more confused with millions of refugees and Russian bombing. The same thing happens in the global economy, which has moved much much. One of the indicators is that over many years the American exchange has remained just at zero. Europe also did not solve its economic problems, which there are much more serious, primarily with the same Greece, with other countries. There is nothing to talk about Russia, instead of decisions, she even more driven herself into a corner. Ukraine also does not please, it is clearly in no hurry with any economic reforms. Republican primaries very clearly show that most Americans, at least, do not believe that existing politicians are able to solve some problems, very angry for them, so they prefer people who have never participated in politics, but who resolved problems in the economy, in science, from here there are such phenomena as Donald Trump or Ben Karson, people who solved problems, made problems, and made problems, who solved problems. The matter, but not in politics. This is a fairly indicative thing. And this determines a certain trend that, in fact, I think, will be resolved already in 2017, and 2016 will rather be preparatory.

- Eric Shiryaev, how would you determine the main results of 2015?

- The year of the carpet is a very good metaphor, I think this is really right, ”says Eric Shiryaev . - The four main results of the year, which, most likely, will enter this metaphor of the year of the carpet. The big question is whether the European Union can withstand for some time? What is meant by the European project is the dream of European liberals to create a community zone, prosperity, economic development, including North Africa, the Middle East, Turkey, Belarus, Ukraine, perhaps even Russia. Most likely, the idea of European Commonwealth is already dying. The second thing that might be unexpected for some, but nevertheless, this is a question that is discussed with us daily is the collapse of the idea of the prosperity of China. The Chinese model, which was so sung by many in America and a majority in Russia, almost all in China. The idea comes, unfortunately, to a logical end, the model does not work. I do not think that there will be collapse, I don’t think that there will be a complete collapse of this idea, but a serious failure of the Chinese model will be felt. The third is the collapse of the American model of non -interference. President Obama came with this idea in 2008, America will lead, but from trenches, from behind. Nevertheless, it turns out that leadership tolerates bankruptcy. Whether this policy will continue after the elections in 2016 is unknown, a big question. And the last, fourth trend is an absolutely incredible growth of populism of both left and right, and in Europe, and in America. Those who were on the left, my colleagues, friends, politicians, move to the left, those who were on the right, move to the right.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, as if determined the results of the year for Russia? Prochrevsky observers talk about the successes of Moscow in a breakthrough of international isolation, Vladimir Putin himself convinces the Russians that it was the year when the country passed the peak of the crisis and the economy headed for recovery, opposition figures dispute all this.

Russia is in recession, of all the main countries of the world, Russia has been in the worst position for this year, it simply drove herself into a corner

- Russia is in recession, of all the main countries of the world, Russia has been in the worst position for this year, it simply drove herself into a corner. She drove herself into a corner economically, she drove herself into a corner politically. According to their official estimates, their economy fell by 3-4 percent, according to the real estimates of some economists with whom we discussed this, in fact, there is much more fall. And most importantly - completely dead -end trends. Moreover, they not only do not try to solve their problems, they exacerbate them as much as possible, imposing sanctions themselves, creating more and more conflicting political situations in the world and so on. That is, to be honest, worse changes in the situation for this year than in Russia were not in any of the main countries in the world. Therefore, they can say on TV everything they want, but it completely contradicts reality. If they really think so, I do not mean television propagandists, but Putin and another bosses, then the situation is doubly difficult then, because then they will definitely get into the crisis in the near future.

-From your point of view, next year-will it be the year of the crash or a year of mitigation of the crisis situation in Russia?

- Crises cannot be softened, crises can only be resolved. When I spent this analogy with the carpet, this is a fundamental thing. This is only an indecisive and inactive bureaucracy all the time trying to soften them and postpone them. The crisis can either break out, or it can be resolved by some positive methods. In relation to Russia, I have every reason to think that the crisis will only aggravate, will ultimately reach the real critical level. I do not see not just attempts to resolve it in Russia, the first necessary moment is the recognition of its presence, recognition that Russia is in a very difficult and critical situation. If this is not recognized, then, frankly, there are not very many hopes.

- Professor Shiryaev, according to your observations, as in Washington perceives the Kremlin’s attempts to present themselves as a key partner in resolving the Syrian crisis? They believe that normal relations with Moscow can be restored? Do they think that it is necessary for the sake of maintaining a universal, let's say, security?

- We made with my students in December a small express analysis of the statements of leading American politicians about American-Russian relations. We compared in two categories - democrats and republicans. So far, the data is preliminary, but the trend is shown this: democrats - senators, congressmen, government members, feel offense, because the ideas that the Americans offered the last 5-6 years have not worked in Russia, Russia is to blame for not accepting them, and the Americans could not penetrate and convince Russia of good intentions. Republicans, on the contrary, have gloated: we have told you since 2008 that it is impossible to deal with Russia, most likely, only strength and only a shout, tough actions can have some influence on it. Therefore, both sides in American politics, both democrats and republicans, are very skeptical: Republicans in terms of gloating, and democrats from the point of view of resentment.

-That is, you want to say that if in Russia someone believes that over the past year thanks to the invasion, interference in the Syrian crisis, the Kremlin managed to strengthen its position, is it not?

- This is just lubricating a bad picture with good colors to convince the buyer that there is still the opportunity to sell it for a hundred rubles.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, saying that the New Year can bring to Russia. You, as a person who has worked out in the American financial industry, can with some certainty to predict whether the Kremlin has a reserve of financial strength to survive next year, that is, to prevent a sharp deterioration in the situation, fraught with public shocks? Interestingly, some Russian political scientists say that in order to maintain the fidelity of the oligarchs, Vladimir Putin will allow them to cash in more at the expense of Russians.

- It is very difficult to predict this in time. Firstly, economic and political problems are inseparable here, some are connected with others, some affect others. Therefore, we do not have such accurate models that can predict such a complex political and economic development. Maybe a year will be able to stretch. But pay attention: we are talking about what to stretch, delay, deceive, hide, we are not talking about resolving and overcome these problems. All the efforts of Putin you are talking about, these are also some tricks, deceptions and maneuvers, but this is not a resolution of problems. From the fact that you begin to pour from empty into empty, from the fact that you will give the oligarchs more people, you will aggravate these problems, probably the crisis will come even earlier. But these are not methods of their resolution. There are no signs that the saddest thing in this situation is that someone, at least those in Russia in Russia, truly realize the whole depth of these problems and take at least some steps towards the actual resolution. As far as they can delay, the more they will delay, the more painfully this will be resolved - this is also a factor that should not be excluded.

- Well, let's talk about the USA. 2016 will surely become the year of very interesting presidential elections in the United States. In the pre-election campaign of the Republicans, Donald Trump is still the leader, which at first was not so seriously accepted that one of the leading American funds of the information stated that it would write about Trump-Candidate in the section of humor and satire. Now Trump in the first lanes, due to his position, the undeniable leader in the struggle for the republican nomination. Eric Shiryaev, what are you waiting for from the elections?

Hillary Clinton, or Ted Cruz, maybe even Donald Trump - they will most likely conduct a tough course in relation to Russia

- Our ideologists, commentators, experts, guru in politics claim that the Republicans will most likely win a non -traditional candidate. The second conclusion that all experts claim that they do not understand, cannot predict American politics this year. For the first time in 50 years, they cannot predict what is happening with American politics. Judging by the trends, touching the Russian-American relations, both the Democrats and the Republicans will most likely play for a more stringent course in relation to Russia. Obama offered a more pacifist, more moderate, more expectant course. Those who come to power - it will be either Hillary Clinton or Ted Cruise, maybe even Donald Trump - they will most likely conduct a more stringent course in relation to Russia, most likely there will be more costs of defense, there will be more safety costs. America will withstand this, whether Russia can withstand this - I doubt deeply.

- You do not believe in Trump's statements that Vladimir Putin is very pretty to him and is he ready to maintain good relations with him?

- Of course not. Trump is an unpredictable person. Nevertheless, you need to know: politics in America is measured not by personalities, but by a system that led them to power. All his advisers, ministers who will come to power in defense, safely, in intelligence, they will all leave conservative circles that will lead to a significantly more stringent course towards Russia. Maybe, unfortunately. I believe that relations with Russia can improve and can accept a more rational shade. But this, unfortunately, this year, most likely, will not happen next year.

-Yuri Yarym-Agaev, do you believe in the viability of the Trump phenomenon or is it a random phenomenon?

People ceased to trust politicians as a class, hence the phenomenon of Trump arose primarily

- No, this is by no means a random phenomenon - this is a reaction to the inability, unwillingness and inability of politicians to solve real problems, people ceased to trust politicians as a class, hence the Trump phenomenon arose primarily. Это не вопрос даже персоналий и личности, потому что, если вы посмотрите, суммарно три человека в течение нескольких месяцев – Трамп, Карсон и Фиорина – имели постоянно больше 50 процентов поддержки республиканцев. Все эти люди не из класса политиков, все это люди, у которых есть какие-то достижения и решения реальных проблем. Это главный вопрос, который существует. Все опросы указывают на то, что большая часть республиканцев не верит в то, что Обама и его правительство способны разрешить существующие проблемы, они верят, что Конгресс и Сенат способны разрешить существующие проблемы. Это общенациональное явление. Другое дело, что оно канализируется, в разных направлениях, которые символизируют разные личности, в частности, какая-то часть людей будет поддерживать Трампа, левые будут поддерживать Сандерса, соперника Хиллари Клинтон, но общая тенденция неверия в то, что существующая власть и даже существующий политический класс в целом, что гораздо шире, способен разрешить эти проблемы, а наоборот, эти проблемы просто усугубляются, становятся все более острыми, – это близко, я бы сказал, к национальному консенсусу.

– Любопытно, с какой любовью ответила Россия Трампу на его несколько теплых слов о России и Владимире Путине. Путин назвал "выдающимся и талантливым" человека, который, правда, пока больше всего привлекает внимание прессы своими публичными оскорблениями оппонентов и критиков. Юрий Ярым-Агаев, что за этой странной любовью, как вы думаете?

Россия, как это ни странно, хочет, чтобы Америкой управляли сильные политики, ибо на самом деле Россия преклоняется перед Америкой

​ – Два ответа. Первый ответ, как это ни парадоксально, я думаю, что хамство Трампа импонирует многим людям в России, потому что в России очень часто хамство принимают за решительность, смелость и прочее, что с моей точки зрения неверно. Многие русские люди явно считают по-другому. Но есть более глубокий и серьезный эффект: Россия, как это ни странно, хочет, чтобы Америкой управляли сильные политики, ибо на самом деле Россия преклоняется перед Америкой. Как это ни парадоксально может звучать, но Россия меньше верит в себя и в своих руководителей, чем в Америку. В какие-то моменты она начинает ее просто идеализировать, делать ее своим идолом и очень болезненно разочаровывается, когда к власти в Америке приходят слабые политики, слабые лидеры. Она говорит о том, что она встает с колен, на самом деле никто Россию никогда на колени не ставил, это она сама встала на колени, начала поклоняться идолу, идол ее разочаровал. С приходом Трампа они думают, что идол снова станет сильным и мощным. Это психология, не совсем моя область, а моя спекуляция.

– Если они действительно рассчитывают на то, что Трамп может прийти к власти, это реалистично, с вашей точки зрения?

​ – Нет, с моей точки зрения, не очень реалистично, – говорит Юрий Ярым-Агаев. – Но я хочу добавить к своему тезису. Обратите внимание, что человек, президент, который пользовался наибольшим уважением в России в последнее время до этого, был Рональд Рейган, который был самый антисоветский президент, а уважали его в России больше всего, потому что он был очень сильным президентом.

– Эрик Ширяев, как вам видятся предвыборные шансы Трампа, является ли его нынешняя популярность, так сказать, аберрацией?

– Шансы большие. Я не буду вдаваться в технические подробности, поскольку об этом я писал, хотя ему выиграть будет трудно по тому, как проходит праймериз в 50 штатах, но шансы являются большими, скорее всего, будет 50 процентов. Хочу вернуться к комментарию Юрия по поводу того, что Россия утверждает, что она стоит на коленях. Прекрасно он сказал: Россию на колени никто не ставил, она сама покаялась в 90-е годы, встала на колени, после того как она поняла, что идол был, может быть, неправильный, решила обвинять других в том, что она встала на колени.

В действительности феномен Дональда Трампа свидетельствует о расширяющемся разрыве между политическим истеблишментом и избирателями, по крайней мере, в республиканской партии, считает американский политолог и экономист профессор Хэйверфорд колледжа в Пенсильвании Владимир Конторович:

- Я думаю, это очень интересно, потому что обычно мы думаем об американских выборах как о соревновании между демократами и республиканцами, часто забывается, что есть деление между верхушкой и избирателями, низами, партия воспринимается как один организм, – говорит Владимир Конторович . – А тут мы увидели, как верхушка – это люди, которые дают деньги, которые пишут, рекламируют кандидатов, советы им дают, – эти все люди облажались крупно. Руководство партии с самого начала поставило на лошадку, которая оказалась совершенно хромой, ее избиратели отказались вообще смотреть на младшего Буша. По опросам он сейчас среди республиканских избирателей собирает 2 процента, то есть он нигде. Микки Мауса можно выдвинуть, он соберет 2 процента, потому что люди невнимательно отвечают на вопросы. Ему были даны главные деньги, ставка была сделана на него. Оказалось, что верхушка партии чего-то не понимает.

– Чего она не понимает, что, с вашей точки зрения, Трамп предлагает избирателю, чего не предлагают другие?

Это как во время перестройки, помните, когда стали говорить о том, о чем говорить нельзя было, люди с ума сходили от восторга

​ – В Америке в последние 20–30 лет существует шизофреническое состояние по поводу эмиграции и границы. Есть законы об эмиграции, есть служба, которая должна их осуществлять. Эти законы не осуществляются, граница открыта, полуоткрыта. Такое раздвоение. Раздвоение, эта шизофрения, с самого начала происходило из-за того, что верхушки обеих партий по разным причинам, но вместе стоят за свободную эмиграцию, а низы стоят за ограничение эмиграции. Я помню, как в Америке политики спокойно собирались и говорили, как регулировать эмиграцию, сколько людей должно въезжать, какими мерами. Это был обычный политический вопрос, в последние два десятилетия этот вопрос стал неприкасаемым. И тут появляется клоун и фанфарон, который эти непроизносимые вещи спокойно произносит, он их произносит грубо, нагло, но произносит, а мы их не слышали ни от кого. Эмиграция – это одна причина. Другая причина – это войны на Ближнем Востоке. Партии как бы спорят про это, но в конце концов делают одно и то же. Мы не знаем, что он будет делать, но сейчас он говорит: смотрите, сколько триллионов долларов, тысячи жизней, и что? Знаете, это как во время перестройки, помните, когда стали говорить о том, о чем говорить нельзя было, – люди с ума сходили от восторга.