The results of the year. A glass of water. Ukraine-2015

The past, 2014, for Ukraine turned out to be revolutionary in every sense and, of course, a turning point. A peaceful, stable, “fraternal” (as President Putin still loves to say) a country with a “multi -vector” (as President Kuchma loved to say) politics turned into a military camp, into a state with “problematic” territories and mobilization economies. In 2015, Ukraine came with the worst economic prospects in its entire history: in February, a real panic began, and the hryvnia stepped over its historical limit: more than 30 UAH was given in that winter for the dollar. Probably, the main economic result of 2015 was a positive forecast for inflation: at the beginning of the year, 46-50%predicted (real indicators-38%), today the World Bank puts 23.4%for 2016, the IMF-12%, and Ukrainian analysts believe that the truth is somewhere in the middle-15-17%. Interested observers from Moscow spoke the public “Ukrainian default” all year, so partly they allowed Arseniy Yatsenyuk with a victorious look to summarize the “annual results” of the work of his government: default did not happen, and Yatsenyuk considers this to be his personal achievement.

In general, by and large, this year could become the year of Yatsenyuk, or rather, the year of the Yatsenyuk government. And judging by the government’s report, its spectacular theses and victorious relations (“Army: they repulsed the aggressor”, “Gas: from Russia is not dependent”, “apparatus: unity and reform”, etc.), Yatsenyuk and its ministers also think so: they have hard to work hard and are now counting on well -deserved popular gratitude. But here's the bad luck: the Ukrainians are again unhappy with their government, and the rating of Yatsenyuk himself is such that his party did not dare to enter the local elections. The last scandalous skirmishes with Mikhail Saakashvili, all these reprisals of Bivis and Bathead may have increased the anti -rating of the Eternal Opponent Yatsenyuk, but from the very beginning it was obvious: everyone would lose in this game. In general, the conflict between the Yatsenyuk and the Odessa governor, which was brewing throughout the year and ended with a shameful farce with a glass of water, left a painful sensation. If before the Ukrainians had any hopes for new ministers and for a wonderful alien, a “great reformer” who “restore order”, then from now on there are no illusions. The official result of the scandalous show was the ostentatious “unity” and the next promise of “rearrangements in the Cabinet”. But the problem of the current Ukrainian government is that they stopped believing again. And this is also the result of 2015. The government of Yatsenyuk is not believed, but it seems to have ceased to hope for its "reboot".

President Petro Poroshenko has other problems. All year with varying success, he climbed between the parties “Zrada” and “Mind”, while he was known as a puppeteer. The popular line of thought that Saakashvili is a man of Poroshenko and he needs to “weaken Yatsenyuk”, at a certain moment was replaced by another idea: Poroshenko needs both, and in a state of permanent war, and is needed exclusively to strengthen his own power and demonstrate his own position of the high arbiter. Like, here is the fight and I am over the fight. In fact, this is still the same long -standing, which successfully worked under Kuchma "System of Cracks and Professions." But judging by the notorious farce at a meeting of the National Council of Reforms, where the “man over the fight” closed his face with his hands, the “drawing system” does not work, and the “counterweights” of that and look will break and go out of the discharge. Meanwhile, the real plot around which all these passions was boiling - the fight against corruption, and scandalous affecting hardly forced him to forget about it. Very soon, European partners will remind him, since the protocol of visa liberalization or, in other words, the long -awaited “visa cancellation”, depends on Ukraine’s execution. It seems that this is the most convincing of the positive results of 2015, and each of the parties is the Cabinet of Ministers in his report, and the president (head of the Petro Poroshenko bloc, Yuri Lutsenko made a separate statement)-hastened to bring it to his asset. In fact, it is likely that by August next year, Ukrainians will be able to travel to Europe on biometric passports. In mid-December, the European Commission has published a positive report on the implementation of the Visa Liberalization Plan of Action, but during the first quarter of 2016, Ukraine will have to prove that the laws adopted under the “anti-corruption package” are implemented. “The European Commission studied all our abbreviations (we are talking about the newly created anti -corruption bodies), they welcome all institutional transformations, but all this should work,” warned the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Pavel Klimkin. In other words, Ukraine goes the next year with some “deferred tasks”. And you have to take the "tails".


Photo:
1. Ukraine. Kyiv. December 23, 2015. Representatives of trade unions of the coal industry during the protest of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with a request to preserve their jobs and the government resignation. Sergey Reznik/TASS
2. Ukraine. Kyiv. December 11, 2015 . The brawl during a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada. Sergii Kharchenko/Zuma \ TASS
3. Ukraine. Odessa. July 8, 2015. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and the governor of the Odessa region Mikhail Saakashvili (from left to right) during a meeting with residents of the city. Nikolai Lazarenko/Press Service of the President of Ukraine/TASS