Medvedev urged to prepare for the "worst scenario"

Russians should prepare for the "worst scenario" in the economy. According to RBC, Dmitry Medvedev announced this at the Gaidar forum in Moscow. According to the Prime Minister, if oil prices are further falling, the budget parameters, designed based on the average price of $ 50 per barrel, will require clarifications.

“It is necessary to live on the means,” Medvedev said, noting that budget savings should affect primarily the expenses of the state apparatus, and the income can be replaced by the privatization of part of the state -owned state.

At the same time, the head of government did not specify how the "worst scenario" might look. However, as RBC writes, a source in the financial and economic block of the government said that now the Ministry of Finance is considering two options for a “stress” budget - at 40 and $ 25 per barrel.

The first option, according to the source, is considered basic. And in the second option, there is a risk of giving out a budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP, laid down in the current budget and agreed on the instructions of President Vladimir Putin.

When implementing the script "$ 25 per barrel," the deficit can be 7.5 percent of GDP, the source claims. Then additional measures will be required to maintain the budget, including not only the expenditure of the reserve fund, but also additional sources of income.

The day before it became known that the government is preparing a 10 percent sequestration of the budget. The ministries and departments are ordered to inform the Ministry of Finance what kind of expenses they intend to reduce. If such information is not presented until Friday, the Ministry of Finance will determine the costs to be reduced at its own discretion. After that, the preparation of the relevant amendments to the budget law will begin.

The current edition of the budget contains income of 13.7 trillion rubles, expenses of 16.1 trillion, and a deficit - 3 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, this budget is reversed at the rate of oil price, which is $ 50 per barrel. Meanwhile, in December, the Ministry of Finance warned that the conjuncture in the oil market makes this budget impossible. Even at the price of oil, $ 40 for a barrel, the budget will not take 1.6 trillion rubles, and the deficit will be equal to 5.2 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov noted, you need to prepare for a price of $ 30 per barrel. On Monday evening, a barrel of Russian oil Urals cost 29.2 dollars.