If only there was no war

On January 15, in the city of Pionersky, Kaliningrad Region, two aides met behind closed doors: the President of the Russian Federation, Vladislav Surkov, and the US Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland. They discussed Donbass.

The official representative of the US State Department, John Kirby, said that the goal of the negotiations is the implementation of the Minsk agreements. High-ranking officials were supposed to develop recommendations that would speed up the complete cessation of the armed conflict. Is such a goal achievable?

Recently, I had to communicate a lot with people on both sides of the Donbass front. None of them believes that such meetings can solve the problem of the almost two-year-old war in the foreseeable future. Indeed, in the 11 months since the signing of Minsk-2, none of the 13 points of the document has been fully implemented. Battles of local importance, accompanied by artillery shelling from equipment allegedly withdrawn from combat positions, break out almost daily. And almost every day there are reports of deaths and injuries of both military personnel and civilians. Against this background, the loud statements of politicians participating in numerous meetings of various formats look rather ridiculous.

Firstly, the DPR and LPR are frankly not going to fulfill Kyiv’s demand to transfer control over the border with the Russian Federation to it, knowing full well that without direct communication with Russia, the self-proclaimed republics will not last even a month. And participation in the forthcoming local elections in the rebellious regions of candidates from the "Right Sector" and other radical parties of the Independent can be a dream for most residents of the "people's republics" only in a nightmare.

For its part, the Ukrainian leadership, apparently out of fear of losing the support of the electorate, will not make any progress in carrying out constitutional reform, which involves the federalization of "certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions." Not to mention the amnesty of all militias accused of terrorism. The blood of more than 9,000 (according to the most optimistic estimates) dead and 20,000 wounded former citizens of one country is still fresh, and many hotheads - on both sides of the conflict - are demanding retribution. Yes, and propaganda - again, on both sides! - continues to compete in strengthening the degree of mutual hatred.

Why then all these meetings at high levels? One gets the impression that they are needed first of all by those who are called "puppeteers of the conflict" - that is, Moscow and Washington.

Russia needs to show its zeal in establishing peace. Apparently, Vladimir Putin and his entourage do not see any other way to lift the sanctions that undermine the country's economy. At the same time, the Kremlin, despite all the loud statements about the unity of the neighboring state, continues to pour very serious funds into the supposedly frozen Novorossiya project. Where, according to eyewitnesses, the forces of "vacationers" begin to gather again. Apparently, just in case.

Well, it's time for American politicians to score points for the upcoming presidential elections soon - and here the Ukrainian card will not hurt.

So it turns out that the confrontation in the Donbass is used as a convenient tool in big political games. At the same time, the Minsk agreements themselves continue to perform an extremely important function - they do not allow clashes to flare up in full force. For this, apparently, they are needed - so that there is no new round of fratricidal war.

11 months after signing
Minsk-2 was not fully implemented
none of the 13 points of the document