January 21, 2016, 17:55 / Finance

Sberbank gave a forecast for 2016

The state bank calculated the stress scenario based on the oil price of $25 per barrel Daria Borisyak Sberbank calculated the stress scenario based on $25 per barrel / Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS

On Thursday, during a teleconference, Sberbank announced its forecasts for 2016. This year the state bank will increase its corporate portfolio at market level, and its retail portfolio - above the market, said Sberbank Deputy Chairman Alexander Morozov.

The corporate portfolio in the banking system as a whole will grow by 6-8%, the retail portfolio by 3-5%, Sberbank predicts. State bank deposits will grow at market levels: for retail deposits it is 16-18%, for corporate deposits - 12-14%. Sberbank's net interest margin in 2016 may be better than last year, and the cost of risk indicator will be 250-300 basis points, Morozov said.

Return on equity will be in the range of 10-15%, growth in commission income may be less than 20%. In general, Sberbank’s forecast for 2016 is based on an oil price of $35 per barrel. However, the state bank has also developed a stress scenario for 2016, which includes an oil price of $25 per barrel and “even lower - $20,” Morozov said, noting that the bank is very conservative in its assessment.

Previously on the topic: Russians set a record for everyday savings

“We will be able to maintain capital at a sufficient level without additional attraction. This is an important understanding for us. We completely eliminate capital risks for this year. Sustainable growth will be guaranteed,” Morozov said.

Previously, Sberbank had a more positive scenario with an oil price of $50 per barrel, at this price the indicators are much better, including return on capital, Morozov admitted.

Previously on the topic: The government is preparing stress scenarios for the economy

Participants of the forum in Davos did not dare to predict the price of oil for 2016

But they expect it to pick up in the second half of the year

The macroeconomic forecast is not so brilliant for Russia, Yulia Tseplyaeva, head of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Sberbank, said at the same teleconference. Additional recession can be expected in 2016, she said. Today, the bank's estimates are much more pessimistic than in 2015. “We expect an economic slowdown and an additional year of consumption decline. Inflation is likely to be high. We expect it to exceed 8%,” Tseplyaeva shared.

With an oil price of $35 per barrel, the decline in Russia’s GDP could be 2.2%, the average dollar to ruble exchange rate - 77.4 rubles, inflation - 8.5%, capital outflow - $46 billion.

Sberbank still plans to return to paying dividends at the level of 20% of net profit, Morozov reassured, noting that the decision on the amount of dividends is made by shareholders. Last year, Sberbank greatly reduced its dividends, paying shareholders only 3.5% of net profit, or 45 kopecks. per share, which was a record low payment over the past 13 years. The state bank paid 20% of net profit only once - in 2013, then 3.2 rubles per share. dividends.