The Russian agenda remains on the periphery of Davos / WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM / swiss-image.ch / Moritz Hager

The first Russian business breakfast was organized by Yulmart, and although it was called “Digital Revolution,” the discussion quickly came down to the question of whether Russian companies, at least from non-resource sectors, could be of interest to foreign investors and how they could be attracted. The main conclusion was that only leading companies that stand out from the crowd, with good potential and fundamental indicators, will retain their attractiveness. It would be even better if their business had ruble costs and foreign currency revenue. But overall, it must be acknowledged that investors now perceive Russia as a high-risk country – Russian business can only be of interest to investors who look at the long term, explained Dmitry Sedov, co-head of the Goldman Sachs division in Russia, to those present.

At the traditional VTB Capital breakfast for investors this year there were noticeably more guests, not everyone had enough seats at the tables, and, for example, Glencore co-owner Ivan Glasenberg, who arrived late, settled on a chair in the corner of the room. The event was attended by the head of the Russian delegation Yuri Trutnev, VTB President Andrei Kostin, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades, and heads of foreign companies.

The host's first question - about the upcoming budget adjustment and the country's and people's readiness to accept and survive it - went to Kudrin. Having dropped the social topic, he focused on positive factors: the reserves created during the period of high oil prices help us today (last year and this year, 3% of GDP was covered by reserves), Russia's debt is very low - only 15.5% of GDP, and the flexible exchange rate helps the economy adapt more quickly to negative phenomena. Trutnev added that in the current situation, it is not just a question of budget adjustments: "there is a pressing need to reform the economy and the public administration system."

After that, the discussion turned to oil price forecasts. Participants were asked to predict OPEC's actions to reduce oil production quotas, and opinions were sharply divided: 38% believe that this will never happen, 32% believe that OPEC will make such a decision at the session in June. The host's attempt to find out what level of oil prices those present considered the bottom showed that, in the opinion of the majority, it is still ahead. The most pessimistic was Kudrin, who predicted a level of $18 per barrel.

Another economic poll, on the possibility of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, found that most participants expect one rate hike this year.

Of course, the discussion of the economy and investments could not do without discussing anti-Russian sanctions. When asked by the host about the likelihood of improving relations between Russia and the United States, Kostin answered that he expected this "in the near future." On the one hand, according to him, it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to improve relations with the United States and is taking cautious steps to do so. On the other hand, Kostin has information from his American colleagues that among the tasks of the administration of US President Barack Obama until the end of his presidential term is improving relations with Russia. Trutnev said that anti-Russian sanctions have not achieved political goals, but have only led to the consolidation of society and increased support for the government. "So the issue of sanctions must be resolved faster," the Deputy Prime Minister unexpectedly urged. He was supported by the head of a European company, who said that Europe is suffering from anti-Russian sanctions, while US trade with Russia is only increasing: the European Union needs to think about its own interests.

After the general discussion ended, the Russian participants continued to discuss our affairs, in particular the latest fall in the ruble exchange rate.

Davos

Russia is still remembered