"The Arab world walks in a circle"

Fifth anniversary of the revolution in Egypt: the collapse of the "Arab spring" or its endless continuation?

In Egypt, January 25 isthe fifth anniversary of the revolution , as a result of which he was forced to resign from the post of president, the long -term leader of this country Hosni Mubarak, who ruled since 1981. Events in Egypt were then perceived as the main symbol of radical changes in the entire region, called the "Arab spring". Five years later, obviously, the ideas and meaning of these changes crashed, although, in its own way, the Arab Spring is still ongoing. In Egypt itself , on July 4, 2013, a military coup , which was headed by the former Minister of Defense, and now the Field Marshal, Abdel Fattah, AS-SISI , took place. The Muslim Brothers Muslim, the Isismist President Mohammed Mursi, was arrested and is now waiting for the death penalty , and the Muslim brothers were declared a terrorist organization. Since then, thousands of Islamists have been taken into custody, many of whom have already been convicted. Hundreds of secular activists were also subjected to persecution .

The current president of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, speaking of the events of five years ago, said that the Egyptians seek to live in a "modern, developed state that adheres to the principles of freedom and democracy." At the same time, As-Sisi warned that any excitement and riots would meet a hard answer. “Freedom should be responsible, you need a framework that will be withheld from destructive chaos, undermining the foundations of the state and reducing human resources,” the head of state added.

About this anniversary and the conclusions that can be drawn by observing what has been happening in the last five years in the region and, first of all, in Egypt itself, in an interview with Radio Liberty is reasoned by the political scientist-Arabist, expert of the Karnegi Foundation Alexei Malashenko .

Reinforced police outfits around Tahrir Square in Cairo. January 25, 2016

- Judging by the consequences of the "Arab spring" specifically by Egypt, I believe that it is still ongoing. And it will last a long time. Egypt never went out of the crisis, there is a very difficult economic situation. There were very big expectations, probably when As-Sisi came to power, there was a calculation of political stability and a gradual economic growth. And this, in my opinion, was a mistake. Still, Egypt is part of the Middle East, part of the Muslim world, where destabilization processes continue with might and main, and they beat and continue to beat the Egypt. As-Sisi reached some kind of political stability, albeit not at a very high level, but nevertheless. It became better than it was, this is no longer the period of Mursi, and not what happened immediately after the overthrow of Mubarak. However, the Muslim Brothers act and will act. More recently, terrorist attacks on Haram Street, in Giza, on the way to the pyramids, occurred. There were just terrorist attacks in Hurghada. Not a guide already about what is happening in Sinai. All this, on the one hand,, as it were, “Muslim brothers”, and on the other, groups that somehow associate themselves with the group ( prohibited in Russia.-RS ) “Islamic State”.

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in all respects is a very interesting person

By the way, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi himself is a very interesting person in all respects. I’ll just call only one of his features - this is the modernizer of Islam! This is a leader who, being the president, being a field marshal, having such an opposition and understanding what he risks, began to talk about the need for the Islamic Revolution, but not the one that was in Iran in 1979, but from the point of view of the modernization of the views of Islam. He admitted that the "corps of ideas", which is now offered to the whole world by Islam, is something outdated, conservative, even aggressive, that it restores the rest of the world against Islam. Not everyone is able to take risks, and especially in Egypt, which was traditionally considered the leader of the Arab world and one of the leaders of the entire Muslim world.

- Protests, the requirements of changes in 2011 were headed, as was commonly believed, at least the city educated class, young people. And where did they go today? Or just crushed?

- Not so much crushed as tired. Still, in Egypt there were 5 years of uncertainty. It was a constant feeling that something could happen, especially if you look "for a neighboring fence" , where Palestine, and Syria, and Iraq, and Yemen. The Egyptians you are talking about are tired of instability. This is the first. Secondly, no matter how relate to Person al-Sisi, after all, hopes for him remain with them. This is a completely modern person who, from my point of view, is ready not only to carry out reforms, but also to act boldly enough. For example, we recall what happened last fall, when he changed the government due to corruption! Not all and not all, but, in any case, he replaced the head of government. A small crisis happened, but he quickly began to control the situation again.

I riots in Cairo, organized by supporters of the overthrown President of Mursi. August 2014

As for the economy - so far a way out of a common, very difficult situation, of course, is not visible. Egypt still continues to receive a lot of money from the Gulf of Persian monarchies. Now, apparently, Cairo will give the next 8 billion Saudi Arabia. Egypt even acquires weapons not for its own, but for other people's money. All three sectors of the Egyptian economy have not yet been justified. The dominant is duties from the Suez Canal. Secondly, agriculture in which almost 30 percent of the population are busy, but they cannot feed themselves. Egyptians buy food even in Russia! And this is a tourist industry, which sank by 20 percent and will probably still lose, because of terrorism, because of the charm El Sheikh, because of everything we all know. There is hope that the Egyptians somehow compensate for this by tourists from the Arab countries, but, frankly, I doubt it. And then a very interesting moment arises. If As-Sisi really can somehow move the economy forward, carry out reforms (by the way, Hosni Mubarak also carried them out, although he was inhibited, but he began to do it, no matter how relate to his person), then he will have all the possibilities to go further. If the economic situation will deteriorate, then Egypt will have colossal problems. And I'm not sure that this will not lead again to the surge of the activity of the Islamists. By the way, 40 percent of the country's financial assets are in the hands of Egyptian generals, this is a giant power! And while the military suits this - they generally control the economy, but do not move it further! Now, if al-Sisi somehow can turn all this, then he will survive, and Egypt will be-very slowly, like all Arab Muslim states, to improve.

- In general, no folk progressive power, as expected then, in the Arab countries where revolutions occurred at the beginning of this decade, did not appear. Now there are either civil wars and bloody chaos, which spills out the whole world, to Europe, for example, or a return to the old orders, as in Egypt. Is it possible to assume that the "Arab Spring" was doomed to defeat from its very beginning?

One of the many terrorist attacks that Islamists arrange on the Sinai Peninsula. September 2015

- Maybe I will disappoint you, but so far the Arab world is walking in a circle! Nobody has yet to get rid of authoritarianism. It can be tough, soft, monarchical, republican - but so far only radical Islamists are an alternative to him. You yourself talked about young people who went out into the streets, about the unifying power of the Internet and social networks. But can you seriously imagine that Egypt for 15-20 years really switched to some normal, at least semi-democratic rails? The society there is not ready for this. This is a process during which at least one or two generation will be replaced. "Arab Spring" - these were the search for an Islamic alternative to those regimes that existed. And what is this Islamic alternative? If we look at least during the reign of Mursi, I'm not talking about everything else? Mursi was a year old president-and he did nothing at all, and especially, in my opinion, did not try. He failed like the head of state! Here, in the person of As-Sisi, he replaced the next “father of the nation”, I mean As-Sisi, and the authoritarian regime. And the current problems of Egypt, no matter how sad, can only be solved by a tough rule. Otherwise, it will be the "Arab" democracy, and not European, and will suffer, in general, in the end everything.

- Russia, it turns out, turned out to be, with its point of view, somewhat in a win, according to the results of the "Arab spring"? We remember the last speech of Vladimir Putin at the UN General Assembly , the essence of which was reduced, in general, to mentor "they say, and we told you that people cannot live without dictatorship!"

In the end, the Constitution of Egypt was written under the influence of the French constitution!

- In any case, the democracy that we consider normal, with all its costs, will not take root in the Middle East. Europe went to the present itself, to its political system for centuries, if not longer. Well, do you want any “spring”, “autumn”, as you want, and the political culture, and political consciousness, and everything else, have changed immediately? It is necessary to proceed from the fact that it is necessary to move in this direction. But how? That's the question! In the meantime, we see what we see. And it turns out that the most democratic regimes in the Arab world, no matter how ridiculous, is a monarchy! I mean, of course, not Saudi Arabia, but, above all, Morocco or Jordan. And do not treat this as a disaster, as a disease. This is the normal development of the civilization that we call Islamic-slow, somewhat conservative, but you should not draw from this conclusions that "democracy will never take root there." Yes, she already exists, at least some of her imitation. In the end, the Constitution of Egypt was written under the influence of the French constitution! There are things that need to be respected. In these states, for example, a female issue is being resolved, by the way, in Tunisia, and in Algeria, and in Egypt. But to think that, they say, we will conduct a revolution, and there will be something as superdemocratic as in Sweden-it will not work. You need to look at the realities.

- For what is happening in the Middle East, including in Egypt, as the situation there affects the whole world, this whole world has been following 5 years very nervously. And we remember what a world reaction was then - hopes, fears - and what it has become now. It turns out that the indirect result of all this "Arab spring" was the loss of positions in the region of the West, the USA, Europe, who failed to correctly calculate the situation?

The current president of Egypt Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi

- And what did they actually lose? I do not see colossal losses. I only see that the countries of the West, Europe and the USA, really came to the same conclusion: let the most authoritarian regimes be there, in dozens of these countries, than something else. This romance, in order to do something with the help of the revolution, is not going on. And someone is ready for this. Relatively speaking, for example, India is ready for democracy! This is a real democratic state, despite the fact that we all understand where it is, how much the population is there and what problems. And with the Muslim world, the situation is much more complicated. It does not mean that I like how everything happens there. This is a conflict between bad and very bad - that’s the whole choice that is there. The bad, speculative comparison, of course, but the USSR at one time tried to plant in Afghanistan themselves, you know what. And put on their own head! This is a matter of generational development, the development of political culture, a very long and complex process. What we are talking about will happen, but not tomorrow and not the day after tomorrow, ” Alexei Malashenko is sure.