The government's anti-crisis plan provides for at least 737 billion rubles. expenses for “structural restructuring of the economy,” supporting industries such as the auto industry, and ensuring social stability, RBC found out

Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev (Photo: RIA Novosti)

To extinguish the crisis with money

RBC became aware of the details of the anti-crisis plan prepared by the government: the ministries estimated their needs for anti-crisis financing at at least 1.7 trillion rubles, of which at least 737 billion rubles. included in the plan sent to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. These proposals will be discussed on Wednesday, January 27, at meetings with President Vladimir Putin, two government sources told RBC.

Proposals aimed at “ensuring stable socio-economic development” in 2016 were prepared by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Health and summarized by the Ministry of Economic Development. On January 26, the document was sent to the White House, RBC’s source in the government knows. The proposed measures are divided into four parts - measures to structurally restructure the economy and improve the investment climate, support for regions, support for economic sectors and ensuring social stability (96 points in total). At the same time, for most items of the plan, the cost and sources of financing have not yet been indicated (for example, support from Vnesheconombank, which is potentially estimated at hundreds of billions of rubles), and 737 billion rubles. — this is only the cost of those measures for which the amount of funding is prescribed.

It follows from the plan that two main sources of financing anti-crisis measures are envisaged - the federal budget itself and the anti-crisis fund. There is no anti-crisis fund in the current federal budget, adopted in December (at that time the government did not expect that such measures would be needed). The government began preparing an anti-crisis plan for 2016 after a meeting with the president on January 13, following a new collapse in oil prices (to $30 per barrel and below). The plan to support the economy must be linked to the budget sequestration, the parameters of which the government has not yet undertaken to calculate. Commenting on the last meeting with Vladimir Putin, RBC sources did not rule out that the anti-crisis plan, in fact, could be formed mainly from that part of the federal budget that will remain after the sequestration.

A representative of the Ministry of Economic Development refused to comment on the anti-crisis plan. But on Monday, Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev told reporters that the support plan will primarily include four basic industries - automotive industry, transport engineering, housing construction and light industry. “I can’t yet say about the support figures that they are completely agreed upon,” Ulyukaev said on January 25.

The Ministry of Finance did not present its proposals, according to the materials for the meeting on January 27. Largely because, government sources explained to RBC, there is still no understanding of how negative macroeconomic parameters will affect the inevitable budget sequestration.

What was and was not included in the anti-crisis plan

737 billion rubles. constitutes the total volume of measures included in the anti-crisis plan, excluding measures for which funding is not indicated

RUB 310 billion constitutes the volume of allocations for the provision of budget loans to regions

At 137.7 billion rubles. measures for the anti-crisis program to support the automotive industry are being assessed

RUB 35 billion is support for agriculture

Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets proposed to index pensions by 8.6% in 2016 (the proposal was not included in the plan)

RUB 159.4 billion would need to be allocated from the budget for such additional indexation of pensions from August 1, 2016

Who wins

The largest expenses under the draft anti-crisis plan are budget loans to the regions - 310 billion rubles. This is exactly the amount that was included in the federal budget law, only now it is proposed to reclassify it as an anti-crisis measure. Another significant anti-crisis expenditure is support for the automobile industry. It is proposed, in particular, to stimulate demand for automotive equipment in the domestic market and preserve jobs at industry enterprises. The total cost of support, which has already been selected by the Ministry of Economic Development, is 137.7 billion rubles. It is proposed to finance expenses in the amount of 88.6 billion rubles from the federal budget, and 49.1 billion rubles from the anti-crisis fund.

In addition, the draft contains a clause on “carrying out measures to support Vnesheconombank.” A reorganization of this development institution is also envisaged: we are talking about “the development of a new operating model.” Previously, government sources told RBC that measures to save VEB may not be included in the anti-crisis plan. The specific amount in the draft anti-crisis plan is not indicated, but Reuters reported last week that this year the authorities may limit themselves to allocating VEB from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. (VEB’s total needs are estimated at 1.2–1.5 trillion rubles).

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At the same time, VEB’s support in this regard turned out to be perhaps the only measure that involves budgetary expenditures to “support the stability of the functioning of the banking system.” Another measure to support the banking sector is the additional capitalization of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), but it was decided to carry it out exclusively from funds provided to the agency back in 2014 and not spent. We are talking about 25 billion rubles, which were previously supposed to be returned to the budget.

Interestingly, the anti-crisis plan includes not only expenditure items. A significant section is devoted to the regulatory liberalization of the investment climate and the development of competition, as well as various measures to support small and medium-sized businesses. For example, it is proposed to introduce a “first warning rule” for companies that do not intentionally evade compliance. It is proposed to expand the grounds for applying non-custodial penalties for businessmen, as well as to carry out judicial reform (including increasing the independence of judges and increasing their responsibility for unjust decisions). The plan included many measures that were supported by Vladimir Putin at the OPORA Russia forum on January 20: for example, the establishment of a unified deduction standard for property tax at cadastral value for small and medium-sized businesses. In addition, it is proposed to extend the single tax on imputed income (UTII) for an indefinite period after January 1, 2018.

Elimination candidates

The cost of the plan items that were not “censored” by the Ministry of Economic Development is estimated at no less than 972.2 billion rubles. At the same time, the list of rejected proposals included the additional indexation of pensions by 8.6%, which Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets insisted on. If such pre-indexation had been included in the anti-crisis plan, then 285.6 billion rubles would have been needed. (if pre-indexation is carried out from April 1) or 159.4 billion rubles. (from August 1).

In addition, the government’s social bloc proposed introducing a monthly cash payment from maternity capital in the amount of 5 thousand rubles. from June 2016 to May 2017. This would require the allocation of 141 billion rubles. for two years. The draft also did not include such proposals as limiting the level of pay for top managers of state-owned companies based on the market level, limiting the salaries of heads of state institutions and state unitary enterprises, as well as introducing a progressive scale of personal income tax for extremely high incomes (along with exemption from personal income tax for salaries within the minimum wage ). But these proposals will still be reported to Vladimir Putin.

But the draft anti-crisis plan includes a clause on the preparation in 2016 of proposals (by October) on the possible timing and pace of raising the retirement age. The social bloc of the government traditionally objects to this. “There have been no decisions on the social bloc’s proposals yet,” Alexey Levchenko, Olga Golodets’ press secretary, told RBC.

with the participation of Ivan Tkachev

Putin will be offered an anti-crisis plan worth at least 737 billion rubles.