Anneal fiscal

The government intends to deal with the crisis of the money of business and the population

The government intends to deal with the crisis of the money of business and the population

The planned federal budget deficit of 3% of GDP is an almost unattainable goal for Russia this year. To deny this after oil prices dropped below $ 30 for a barrel, it is unlikely that even the most optimistic government members will succeed. How to compensate for the losses of the treasury when oil annuity is critically not enough? One of the options is a more aggressive fiscal policy, and the first step of this script involves the mobilization of existing resources.

The serious intentions of the Ministry of Finance are evidenced by the materials of the plan to tighten the fiscal system of Russia, to which RBC refers. According to the publication, it is proposed, for example, to limit citizens who have unpaid fines, access to public services, and the budget will be forcibly deducted from salaries. Companies, if there are tax debts or customs payments, may deprive the right to conclude state contracts, and their owners can prohibit registering new legal entities.

“In a state that is not very well managed, it is impossible to improve tax administration,” said Natalya Zubarevich , director of the regional program of the Institute of Social Policy. - You just have to pay more compensation to agree - in this system everything is rebuilt. With poor management, punishment does not give an economic effect. ”

Last year, the Russian authorities announced the moratorium on raising the tax burden until 2018. So far, he remains in force, but, speaking at the Economic Forum in Davos, former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin expressed confidence that it was not for long - tax raising is inevitably this year.

Preserving its formal action, the moratorium nevertheless can be disturbed de facto. For example, through the introduction of various obligatory fees that do not have the status of taxes. Experts, however, are sure that the economic truth about the dangers of tax increased during the crisis by the authorities is ignored, even despite the country's entry into a large electoral cycle.

“This is a matter of survival of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation. All possible ways to receive additional income will be sought, ”says Zubarevich. Data on the consolidated budgets of the regions indicate that tax rates are growing. So, the income from property tax for 2015 in the budget increased by 12%, tax income on the simplified tax system for small businesses - by 11%, the expert notes. It would be possible to explain this by increasing the activity of entrepreneurs, but not in the current conditions.

Last year, we saw fiscal innovations that hit directly in the pockets of the population, such as the transition to the cadastral value when calculating property taxes, the introduction of contributions for overhaul and the emergence of paid roads and parking lots. But the most massive measures, according to the Doctor of Economics, Sergei Smirnov , will still not go too far:

“There should not be a wide base of taxpayers. We have already fallen under the cadastral value, from July 1 tariffs for housing and communal services have increased, the pension was under -indexed by 3 times. If something else happens against this background, the population simply will not withstand such a load. ”

The fiscal policy of the authorities is also concerned about the business, the tax burden of which has recently been added by trade, recycling and environmental fees. A survey of top managers of the largest Russian companies conducted by the PWS consulting company showed that the state policy to prevent budget deficiency today is the second largest threat to domestic business: this year 86% of respondents noted. The stronger fears of Russian CEO causes only the volatility of the ruble (92%).

In the context of the crisis of the rental economy, the state is diligently looking for surrogate sources of budget replenishment. “The government reminds me of the very fish, in which the abdomen was opened, cleaned, and the reflexes remained with it: it rushes at a hot frying pan and begins to tremble, spraying everything around, and first of all,” says Smirnov. On the contrary, it is necessary, on the contrary, to release reins a little - the initiative of the population will awaken, the economic independence of people will increase, the expert believes. Otherwise, there will be a risk of mass departure “into the shadow”, comparable to the nineties of the years - and the treasury will not be easier from this.