Russian business fears ruble volatility most of all / A. Gordeev / Vedomosti

Russian businesses consider the volatility of the ruble exchange rate to be the main risk in 2016, according to a survey of 107 company executives conducted by PwC. Almost all of them are concerned about the exchange rate. The share of such respondents has almost doubled since 2014 (from 55 to 92%). Russian products are primitive and uncompetitive, with low margins, explains such concerns about the exchange rate, chief economist of PF Kapital Evgeny Nadorshin.

The main long-term risk is changing consumer behavior, PwC concludes: people have already gotten used to and are unlikely to stop saving, and businesses also need to say goodbye to the habit of living in conditions of rapid growth. “As a result of technological development, our client is also changing,” notes Ruben Aganbegyan, CEO of Otkritie Holding, in a survey. “The client dictates how we should change so that he continues to stay with us.”

The second most important risk, according to top managers, is budget policy – measures to prevent deficits and growth of the debt burden. Geopolitical instability rounds out the top three risks. The main risk for global business (according to a PwC survey) is excessive government regulation – in the Russian study it was in fourth place. 70% are concerned about risks associated with corruption and bribery – this is much more than the global average (55%) and, for example, in China (46%).

Photo.

What will be the price of oil and when will Russia be able to emerge from the crisis?

Economy / Photo

61% of company executives admit that threats have increased in three years. Russian business is less optimistic than global business. Since 2008, it has been the other way around: Russian top managers were more confident in revenue growth than the heads of companies worldwide on average. The situation changed in 2014: in a survey published in 2015, the share of such Russian top managers fell from 53 to 16% (in the world, it has not changed – 39%). In the latest survey – 26 and 35%, respectively.

Business has named three priority tasks for the government: a clear, stable and effective tax system, highly qualified personnel, high-quality infrastructure, including digital. "<...> there are many problems that must be solved at the state level," Vladimir Dymov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Dymov, is quoted as saying. The state will be forced to work effectively only when the reserves for subsidizing state-owned companies are depleted, says Natalia Akindinova, Director of the HSE Development Center. Business itself is going to primarily cut costs and personnel.

The main long-term threat, according to Akindinova, is an unfriendly internal environment, including administrative barriers. Because of this, Russian business is more inclined to only short-term planning, she notes.

Business is afraid of the ruble