Why did Sobchak lose

How did the governor elections in St. Petersburg in 1996 have influenced the future of Russia? Conversation with political scientist Alexei Shustov

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the fateful elections of the Governor of St. Petersburg, on which mayor Anatoly Sobchak, together with his team, including Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin , Lyudmila Narusov and many other politicians known today, suffered a crushing defeat, and Vladimir Yakovlev was elected the governor of St. Petersburg.

These elections can be called fateful for Russia, if only because it was after them that the landing of St. Petersburg politicians who seized power in the country had landed in Moscow. After these elections, Anatoly Sobchak, who seriously considered the possibility of his participation in the future elections of the President of Russia, was forced to leave for France, ending his political career.

Today we recall the features of these elections, when the fate of the country, without suspecting it, decided several thousand Petersburgers who cast their votes for Vladimir Yakovlev. Our guest is Alexei Shustov, a St. Petersburg political scientist, member of the election headquarters Anatoly Sobchak in 1996.

- Alexey, how did you get to the headquarters of Anatoly Sobchak?

- By chance, through my friend, I began to engage in the election campaign Alexander Vladimirovich Prokhorenko , who was called a “man from science,” he worked in the St. Petersburg Center for the Russian Academy of Sciences. He ran for the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg (ZAKS), I led his election campaign. He won, became a deputy of the Zaks of the 1st convocation. I continued to work with him. A year later, there were elections to the State Duma. Alexander Vladimirovich took part in the work of the Bloc "Our House-Russia" , moreover, he was the chairman of the executive committee of the St. Petersburg organization of this bloc. And the chairman of the political council of this organization was Vladimir Putin. And, knowing about my abilities to conduct election campaigns in practice, Alexander Vladimirovich attracted me in order to do some work as part of the campaign of the “Our House-Russia” block. My team was agitation, although I worked with another candidate, Viktor Ivanovich Kharchenko . It was then, in the framework of that campaign, I was represented by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

It was after these elections that the landing of St. Petersburg politicians landed in Moscow, who had seized power in the country three years later

- How was the headquarters of Anatoly Sobchak worked and how was the headquarters? After all, the election governor’s campaign began immediately after the election to the State Duma of the 2nd convocation, Anatoly Sobchak even joined the “Our House-Russia” party?

-First of all, we must mention that even during the campaign of the “Our House-Russia” party in the lists in St. Petersburg, Lyudmila Borisovna Narusova was in it. So she was inclined to show certain public activity, speak on television, meet with a certain category of citizens, and she wanted professionals to help her in preparing for these public speaking (by the way, I note that this was the right desire). Anatoly Sobchak in the subsequent campaign, after six months, was completely not inclined to specially prepare for performances and, in particular, for the debate with Vladimir Yakovlev in the second round of the gubernatorial elections. And Lyudmila Borisovna wanted to get a certain additional training.

Anatoly Sobchak in the subsequent campaign, after six months he was completely not inclined to prepare for performances

I recommended my friend, political scientist Alexander Ershov, a graduate of the Department of Political Psychology of Leningrad State University, who at this point had rich experience with the leading 5th channel TV. He held several meetings with Lyudmila Borisovna, and, as far as I know, she was grateful for this. "Our house - Russia" showed a high result, but not the same as expected from it, not the most brilliant. But since all this was the result of how the campaign was held at the federal level, there were not specifically questions for us, and we smoothly proceeded to prepare for the elections of the governor of St. Petersburg.

Moreover, these elections have moved closer, so that Anatoly Sobchak has some best positions compared to possible competitors. Although, in general, at that time a competently conducted election campaign was supposed to give a positive result with the support that Sobchak had, despite the fact that a certain negative was already formed in relation to him. But the positive tank was still very large.

Nevertheless, this transfer of elections was nevertheless made, they were appointed on May 19. We had to prepare an election campaign. Already in January 1996, my team was invited to make the field part of the work (pickets, etc.) as part of the campaign Anatoly Sobchak.

- Who headed this headquarters?

Lyudmila Narisova had a strange idea of how this work is being done

- It was not very clear how the headquarters was formed. Somewhere by the end of January it was formulated in such a way that, in particular, it was formed by Alexander Prokhorenko, and is headed by Lyudmila Narusova. Since I did not understand who and how would conduct an election campaign, I prepared my project for its implementation, my concept. I transferred this document through Prokhorenko Lyudmila Narisova - perhaps Anatoly Sobchak was also familiar with him, but in the future there was no reaction to this document. Unfortunately, in the future there was no other concept that could be acquainted with us as participants in the campaign. This is one of the elements explaining why the campaign went so strangely.

The second point: Lyudmila Narisova had a strange idea of how this work is being carried out. She (as, I think, Anatoly Sobchak) had an idea that there are a huge number of people in the city who are ready to spend a lot of their free time on campaigning for Sobchak, on the appropriate election work. But the yard was no longer 1989 and not 1991, when he was chosen the first time by the mayor. The realities have changed: people who survived the difficult period in an economic sense began to spend a lot of time on themselves. And, of course, those people who worked in the elections worked for money. At this early stage, I had a meeting with Lyudmila Narisova, who asked if I had a team ready to work for Anatoly Sobchak. I replied that there was, that we worked with this team in the Duma elections two months ago, and our candidate Viktor Kharchenko took second place, and this was also good because in six of the eight of the city’s city districts the Yabllenniki won, and this was also the result of the federal election campaign. Grigory Yavlinsky was very popular in 1995 in St. Petersburg.

In six of the eight districts of the city, "Yabloko" won. Grigory Yavlinsky was very popular in 1995 in St. Petersburg

We had a team, and she was ready to work. But Lyudmila Narusova, apparently, decided that there was a team ready to work throughout the city. And by inexperience, I did not realize that she might have a misunderstanding that we have only one eighth cities for the people. We began to additionally get people. And the first emotional reaction of Lyudmila Narusova was as follows: in an increased tone, she said that I deceived her, said that we had a team, but she, it turns out, no. I replied that there is a team, but it must be expanded, as the task is worth a different scale.

- What other mistakes were made at the headquarters of Anatoly Sobchak?

- The issue of financing this work was not resolved for a long time. Our colleagues, who “led” Vladimir Yakovlev, in particular, Vladimir Bolshakov, who waged all field work, brought people to the streets to agitate for their candidate in early March. And the public activity of Vladimir Yakovlev began even earlier, in mid -February. Unfortunately, we were able to take the streets with our agitation only after May on May, when the headquarters was formed, led by Alexei Kudrin and Mikhail Manevich . But it was later. And initially the head of the headquarters was appointed Lyudmila Narusova.

For a long time the issue of financing this work was not resolved

Then, in February, meetings were held in the office of Anatoly Sobchak in the Mariinsky Palace. There, meetings of the headquarters were held by Lyudmila Narusova herself. Sobchak was either not at these meetings, or he came half an hour after the beginning. Everyone sat at a long table for meetings, as it should be, and Anatoly Sobchak was arranged separately at the head of the leader. Lyudmila Borisovna invited him to participate in the work of the headquarters, but he refused, watched some papers, and then left. He did not join the work of the headquarters. And, by the way, it was right. The candidate in the current work of the headquarters should not participate.

Lyudmila Narusova physically headed this headquarters. Sociologists and representatives of city committees, organizations took part in this work. After some short time, it was formally announced that the headquarters was headed by Lyudmila Narusov, and Alexander Prokhorenko was her deputy headquarters. From this moment, I was connected to field work in the city, although there were also other teams of picketers who partially covered the city and intersected with us. My team covered the city as a whole. We had two hundred pickets, but this is since May, and all March and April we were preparing for this and waited for financial issues to be resolved when it would be possible to take these 1,200 people.

- And who in the headquarters of Anatoly Sobchak oversaw the work of the media?

Sobchak was not included in the work of the headquarters. And it was right. The candidate in the current work of the headquarters should not participate

- This work was largely supervised by Alexander Bespalov , who at that time headed the relevant profile committee, and now he is working in a respectable position in Gazprom. He entered the headquarters and oversee these questions. As for Vladimir Putin, he was related to these issues, although I did not directly intersect with this, because working with the media and work directly with the population are different things. Sociologist Tatyana Protasasenko told me that she, in particular, was present at watching the film directed by Igor Shadhan about Anatoly Sobchak. Vladimir Putin was familiar with Igor Shadhan, respect him - he organized this viewing and invited Tatyana Protasenko to express her opinion about the film as a sociologist.

During the election campaign, the whole severity of the city’s management fell on Putin's shoulders

Vladimir Putin somehow participated in the work of the election campaign. According to my impressions, this participation was not very big. And this is indirectly confirmed by the simple fact that during the election campaign, the whole severity of the city’s management fell on Putin's shoulders.

Now, many opposition and critics of Putin have the usual say: "From nowhere, the unknown Kagabashnik, who was known to his one and a half friend-servants!" This is wrong. Putin really ruled the city during his usual work, because Sobchak, of course, was more engaged in representative activities, he had a more soul to this. Of course, he made the most important decisions, but the huge amount of routine work lay in Putin. And of course, such an experience helped him significantly when he became president. He felt all this routine of the control of the five millionth city on his fingertips in 1991, and in 1992, and in 1993, and in 1994.

During the elections themselves, Putin, as far as I know, was entrusted with the current city management. He had no time to do something else, so his participation in the election campaign was so inconspicuous. I think that he also oversaw security issues, as he traditionally was responsible for the connection with law enforcement agencies as a deputy mayor.

Putin really ruled the city during his usual work, because Sobchak was more engaged in representative activities

Another point that we must mention in connection with the preparation of the election campaign Anatoly Sobchak. For some reason, I did not see mention of this in the media. In the years preceding these elections, Putin oversaw the relations of the city hall with the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg. The transfer of these elections to an earlier date, on May 19, 1996, is the direct result of Putin’s activity in the Legislative Assembly. It was he who negotiated with the deputies and formed the majority that was necessary in order to be very opposite and critical of the mayor to vote for transferring the date of the election. Of course, the ZAS of the convocation of 1994 was not as opposition as Lension, but still had to work there. And Putin did this work.

-What do you think, would Anatoly Sobchak have a chance to become the president of Russia in the next presidential election if he won these elections of the Governor of St. Petersburg in 1996?

Sobchak could not have gathered a sufficiently strong support group in order to run for the presidency

- These governor elections were almost at the same time with the presidential. Initially, the deputies of the Zaks transferred the date of their holding to the presidential election, on June 16, 1996, and only then at the request of Moscow transferred to an earlier term, on May 19, so as not to combine the governor's elections with the presidential.

The president was already elected in these elections, therefore, Anatoly Sobchak could have a chance to participate in the elections in four years. But, in my opinion, although he gathered a brilliant team of professionals around him, such as Alexey Kudrin and Mikhail Manevich, he could not build political relations. If we analyze the history of his relationship in the political environment, you can see that he never managed to create alliances with some large figures.

I think he would not have been able to collect a strong enough support group in order to run for president. I believe that he would have worked out another term as the governor of St. Petersburg, and what would happen next, it is difficult to make a guess. We saw that there were problems with the rating, which, judging by the results of sociological research, Vladimir Yakovlev rapidly catching up with Anatoly Sobchak, but no one believed that such a defeat could occur. At the start of the election campaign, the cloud was not on the horizon. For some reason, this tragic sequence of events has developed. But this was a surprise to everyone.

I remember the last meeting on Friday, before the debate, when we have already analyzed everything, everything we could do. They moved away from this meeting with Alexei Kudrin, and everyone hoped and believed that the second round would end in the victory of Anatoly Sobchak. Therefore, probably, when this did not happen, everyone was in a state of shock.

We saw that Vladimir Yakovlev is rapidly catching up with Anatoly Sobchak, but no one believed that such a defeat could occur

I still have one picture in front of my eyes from that meeting. The meeting ended, we all disagree in order to engage in our tasks. And Alexei Kudrin went to television, where the debate of Sobchak and Yakovlev was supposed to take place that evening. And someone asked Kudrin: "Alexey Leonidovich, and Anatoly Alexandrovich was preparing for the debate?" And as I see now - Kudrin shows a thick pack of sheets of paper and says: “We have prepared a certificate of what has been done and made in the city in recent years. He asked her to prepare, said:“ I’ll look in the car! ”So Sobchak rode on the debate - heliting two hundred pages of the text about the results of the city’s development in recent years, during his work by the mayor. I tried to express these numbers in the framework of the debate, but the same was prepared by Yakovlev, and the same Alexander Ershov prepared it for the Gosduma Lyudmila Narovova before the election. Yakovlev to these debate, they determined how to achieve the desired effect on these debates, and the result was wonderful for them, when the voters of Yakovlev, who thought, to vote for him or not, saw how he “pushed” this professor Sobchak, and they went to vote for Yakovlev. The refined St. Petersburg intelligentsia saw how Sobchak could not answer Yakovlev’s sufficiently powerful pressure, and then he breaks up to this skirmish, they were disappointed and did not go to the polls, and then we lost all this, ”Petersburgsky political scientist, member of the election staff, Anatoly Sobchak in 1996.