08 February 2016, 05:46 / Economics

The Ministry of Economy forecasts a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP at $40 per barrel – Kommersant

The government's anti-crisis plan and amendments to the 2016 budget are calculated based on the average annual Urals price of $40 per barrel, writes Kommersant . This price appears in the basic scenario of the draft macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy, on the basis of which the latest budget adjustments were calculated. In the base scenario for 2016, a decline in GDP is expected by 0.8%, a fall in industrial output by 0.3%, and inflation of 8-8.5%. The decrease in investment in 2016 is projected to be 6% (in 2015 - by 8.4%), the volume of services to the population - by 1.5% (in 2015 - by 2.1%), real wages - by 3 .5% (in 2015 - by 9.5%), real income of the population - by 3.9% (in 2015 - by 4%). The drop in retail turnover will decrease from 10% in 2015 to 2.9%.

The government did not prepare budget projections based on the conservative scenario of the Ministry of Economy with a Urals price of $25 per barrel, although in January the price of oil fluctuated around $28. The department of Alexey Ulyukaev believes that in this case inflation will be 8.8-9.2%. The decrease in investment in this scenario is projected to be 6.7% against 8.4% in 2015, and retail turnover - by 5.9%. Real incomes of the population suffer the most in this scenario - the rate of their decline will increase to 4.7%, and the rate of decline in real wages will decrease to 4.8% per annum.

The average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar in the basic forecast is 68.2 rubles/$, in the conservative forecast - 75.7 rubles/$.

The budget deficit at $40 per barrel will be 5.1% of GDP, or 3.9 trillion rubles, and expected revenues will be 12.1 trillion rubles. In this case, to cover the deficit, as the government decided last week, 2.1 trillion will be spent from the reserve fund in 2016 (1.5-1.6 trillion rubles will remain). “Big privatization” will bring another 873 billion rubles. (plus the planned one, expected at the level of 33 billion rubles). It is impossible to achieve this target without selling the state stake in Rosneft. The net placement of government debt in 2016, budget projections will increase from the planned 300 billion to 407 billion rubles.

In addition to a 10% reduction in expenses (by 513 billion rubles), the Ministry of Finance proposes to reduce expenses on the state arms program by 200 billion rubles, undisclosed “tactical measures” will allow savings from 25 to 50%, as well as the payment of dividends by Transneft according to IFRS , will supplement the budget by 175 billion rubles, the increase in VAT collection will be another 73 billion rubles. At the same time, lowering the oil price forecast from $50 to $40 increases costs by 207 billion rubles. and creates an unplanned deficit of the Pension Fund by another 110 billion rubles. (and other structures for 33 billion rubles).

Thus, when implementing the basic scenario of the macro forecast, the White House reduces expenses by approximately 0.7 trillion, sells assets on the market by 0.9 trillion and borrows by 0.1 trillion rubles. more than planned. With oil at $25 per barrel, covering the budget deficit of 6-7% of GDP within two years is impossible not only with the reserve fund, but also with the National Welfare Fund.

Previously on the topic: The government is preparing stress scenarios for the economy Previously on the topic: Ulyukaev allowed the forecast price of oil to be lowered Previously on the topic: “Plan C” of the Ministry of Finance: $40 per barrel