"Who is Konashenkoff?"

NATO strengthens its eastern flank, but clashes with Russia are most afraid of the south

Replicas of the official representative of MO Igor Konashenkov can quarrel Russia with the UN, Moscow, December 24, 2015

At first glance, it seems that the West is now not at all up to the confrontation with Russia. The colorfully decorated announcement of the headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance in Brussels, right next to the dining room, where prices (if they are correlated with the salaries of the units) are quite comparable to the Duma, notifies that "NATO ski club organizes the weekend-tour into dolomite (Italian.- NT ) Alps." In one of the presentation rooms endlessly twist a video dedicated to the upcoming headquarters of the headquarters (after General de Gaulle expelled the NATO secretariat in the mid-1960s from Paris, he found a refuge in a three-story building of the former Brussels hospital, where he still resides) in a new building of glass and metal on the other side of the street. The video responsible for moving the deputy agent's NATO ex-USP in Russia Alexander Vershbow exactly in the same helmet as that of Sergei Sobyanin, leads the NATO construction of the century on the spot (the construction, by the way, has been almost completed), after which it gives an interview dedicated to the new role of NATO in the world who was sharply complicated due to the behavior of the world (at that moment one of the “polite people” at the Simferopol airport on the screen He cigns with another), nostalgically recalling the “time of hopes” (and here they twist archival frames with the ex-head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Andrei Kozyrev, who signs some document, apparently another “capitulant”). For some reason, the Americans have a good mood, and especially the chief of the Pentagon Aston Carter: thanks to the direct broadcast on the monitor, we clearly see how he, before the meeting of the Ministers of Defense of the Alliance countries, is fraternally hugging with his Spanish colleague, then with passion, French, that is, in both cheeks, kisses the head of the Military Department of the Federal Republic of Military Layen, who is not only ready to allocate a thousand German soldiers in the NATO eastern borders of the permanent base, but also proposed to direct the alliance potential to resolve the refugee crisis: three German ships are now on duty in the Aegean Sea, waiting for the vessels on which smugglers are transported to the shores to the shores
European migrants.

"The European Union for Russia is the enemy, NATO - the enemy, now the UN is the enemy?"

Alliance-thanks to Putin and his “green little men”-as the one and rich: in 2015, none of the 28 member countries allowed the cutting of military expenses, and the United States just added $ 3.4 billion to the NATO piggy bank, increasing the financing of the American group in Europe by four times: almost throughout the eastern NATO flank will be placed high-tech American tanks Abrams and BMP "Bredley", 10-15 pieces of which, as the military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer assures, is enough to restrain the onslaught of the Russian division.

And even the theme of Ukraine sounds this time in the headquarters of NATO somehow sluggish and completely different tonality than a year ago. Here is a very characteristic example of a dialogue of a Ukrainian journalist with a NATO official responsible for partnership programs: “Russia intends to deploy three armored armies on the border with Ukraine. Does NATO consider this a threat? What do you intend to do? " -“NATO still supports Ukraine, but no one will carry out the reforms necessary for Ukraine. And with reforms, Ukraine is beating. ” But the lively personification of the successful reforms was sitting to the right of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, Minister of Defense of Georgia Tina Hidasheli (during a meeting of the Georgia -NATO commission) - she happened to hear from the owner of the meeting what was apparently genuine "Georgian Dream" of the team of Bidzina Ivanishvili: "Georgia is confidently moving towards membership in NATO." In May, the NATO training center will work in Tbilisi, which will begin the preparation of the first company of the Georgian Armed Forces. Having eliminated the main stimulus in relations with Russia - Mikhail Saakashvili, the new Georgian authorities continued to move to the west without interference. However, NATO membership is still a bright Georgian tomorrow. But already this year, Georgians are “almost one hundred percent”, as officials in Brussels say, they will receive a visa -free regime with the EU, while Ukraine - grandmother said in two.

US Secretary of Defense Astton Carter (right) is glad to see the Spanish colleague, Brussels, Belgium, February 10, 2016

But it is worth pronouncing only three words - Russia, Türkiye and Syria - how the harsh truth of the international situation beats the head on the head, NATO officials grab on the notebooks. Then they look for something there and pronounce the cherished surname: "Co-on-Shen-Koff."

“Who is Konashenkoff? (And this is the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov). Even Pan Hi Moon (UN Secretary General) says that, as a result of Russian bombing, Aleppo is suffered by civilians, and Konashenkoff is ridiculed by Pan Hi Muna. The European Union for Russia is an enemy, NATO is an enemy, now the UN is an enemy? ”

Another Russian surname, which is heard at the NATO headquarters, is “Kadiroff”.

“What kind of Chechen special forces are this in Syria after some kind of preparation at some NATO bases?” - asked, appealing to the latest statements by the head of Chechnya, a rhetorical question to the NT correspondent from the NATO communications department.

And after that - even more rhetorical: "Why is Putin are silent?"

However, Kadyrov as a serious threat to the world around the world has not yet been considering. Kim Jong -un, possessing nuclear weapons, is more dangerous.

Another thing is Putin, with the spirit and letter of which in NATO is linked by striking changes in Russian behavior.

From the standpoint of power

On November 24, 2015, 1 hour 10 minutes after the Turkish fighter knocked down the Russian Su-24 Air missile, Turkish Prime Minister, NATO member, Akhmet Davutoglu called the Secretary General Stoltenberg and informed him of the incident. After conferring, Stoltenberg instructed to prepare two statements. First: NATO confirms Turkey's right to defend its borders. Second: NATO is ready to resume the work of the Russia -NATO Council, which was interrupted after the annexation of Crimea. This is the principle of Stoltenberg, which he repeatedly voices: the more complicated the political moment, the more important the dialogue. Moscow reacted favorably with the initiative: “We are ready,” answered the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov. And then silence came.

“We sent proposals to Moscow on the agenda of the meeting, they sent us their own,” says James McKay, head of the Euro -Atlantic and Global Partnership of the Department of Political Affairs and the Global Security of NATO. - We suggested: Okay, let's discuss both yours and our suggestions. They said: no, yours are not interested in us, we will only discuss ours. The conversation ended on this. ”

Another NATO functionary says: “It became pointless to talk with Russia: your people are in advance to talk only from the standpoint of strength, as if it were not you, but we launched“ little green men ”into the Crimea. And sometimes, in general, ultimatums are used, as in recent negotiations on the “open sky” in Vienna. ”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to the Minister of Defense of Georgia Tina Hidasheli: “Georgia is confidently moving towards membership in NATO” , Brussels, Belgium, February 11, 2016

It is no accident that in NATO, according to the interlocutors of the magazine, the number of member countries is growing, which advocate curtailing any dialogue with Moscow. However, both the Secretary General Stoltenberg himself, and a number of old members of the Alliance profess another approach: at least some information from the Russians is better than not at all, even if this information was delayed or came through a third party.

Untied hands

The unpredictability of Russia's behavior is largely due to the fact that her hands are actually untied today. “It’s easier for Russians, they don’t have to consult with anyone, seeking a consensus,” says another NATO official and explains: after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber, Moscow sent its planes with a long-range radar detection system (DRLO) A-50 to Syrian sky in Syrian sky in Syrian. ” NATOVSMA-de, before making a decision to send additional aircraft to Turkey with its analogue-the Avax system, it was necessary to wait for the agreed decision at the level of defense ministers. “Time is missed. You (Russia) have a complete superiority in the air, and with such support, the Assad army can carry out any offensive operations, ”the interlocutor of the magazine insists.

However, other analysts recognize: the impudent and unpredictable behavior of Russia increases the risk of accidental clash in Syria - as with the forces of the United States, the coalition (and, in fact, with NATO, since all NATO countries are included in the coalition against ISIS ), and separately with Turkey.

As a very likely in NATO, such a scenario is considered: the army of Bashar al -Assad, capturing Aleppo, goes further north, up to the borders with Turkey, in response, the Turkish President Erdogan sends planes to meet the advancing Syrian troops. In this case, a clash with aircraft of Russian VKS is practically inevitable. Story, according to the 5-1 of the article of the Washington Treaty, turns for help to the NATO allies-and here the Belly's incident is already arising.

At least some information from Russians is better than at all, even if this information is delayed or came through the third side

The Turks can intervene if the Syrian troops begin to pursue or bomb high -thousandth columns of refugees from Aleppo. And the most dangerous thing is that with “arrogant and chosen Russia”, they say in NATO, today it is very difficult to agree on the mechanisms of insurance and control over the situation. ”

Lighted wick

Another explosive element is the military exercises that the Russian General Staff, according to NATO, went to hold, sending the warning “at the last minute”. According to the current Vienna Treaty, NATO and Russia must inform about the schedules of the exercises and promptly notify each other in case of preparation of new ones. At the same time, maneuvers involving more than 13 thousand military personnel require automatic sending notification to all countries - OSCE participants with a proposal to send military observers. But Russia, they say in NATO, found a loophole in the form of unscheduled exercises, which since 2013, according to the Alliance, had more than ten, moreover, large -scale ones. “Of course, we can respond to sudden maneuvers with sudden checks,” says one NATO functionary, “but in the current conditions it may turn out to be a wick to the powder barrel.”

However, one wick is already lit. Russian military planes took the habit of flying over the Baltic with the transponders turned off, thereby exhausting European dispatch services. At the same time, it is primarily about civilian dispatchers who do not see them and receive information from the military, moreover, after some period of time. So far, this is just a precious time. But it can become fatal at any time.

Photo: Virginia Mayo/Ap Photo, Thierry Charlier/Afp, Imago/Xinhua

* IG, "Islamic state", Daish - a group prohibited in Russia