Unaccounted war

The smell of a new Russian-Turkish conflict is rushed in the air. Ankara suddenly announced the mobilization of reservists, Moscow began teaching in the Black and Caspian seas. How the spiral of the confrontation was spinning and what to wait - the New Times sorted out

On the German carnival of the Erdogan doll and a doll of a terrorist of the IG* group banned in the Russian Federation - nearby, Dusseldorf, Germany, February 8, 2016

More recently, it seemed that Russia and Türkiye, having vanked after the incident with the Su-24 shot down in November last year, would be limited to economic sanctions and forget about everything. Nevertheless, in late January - early February, literally two weeks from mutual reproaches, threats and insults, a pre -war situation was woven.

The opposite effect

Entering economic sanctions against Turkey, Moscow thereby wanted to punish the President of Erdogan and his environment-it was they who turned out to be “accomplices of terrorists”, and the hardworking Turkish people, as Vladimir Putin did not fail to emphasize, speaking last December with a message to the Federal Assembly, can still count on the good attitude of Russians. In Turkey, the idea of ​​Russian economic pressure, as one Turkish official explained in a conversation with NT, was perceived as follows: the people will live worse, dissatisfaction with the country's leadership will arise, and sooner or later the unpopular government will have to leave, giving way to those who will correct everything. In any case, in that spirit, many invited “experts” performed on Russian federal channels. For example, in the talk show, Vladimir Solovyov, former deputy Semyon Baghdasarov, passionately advocated support for the opposition republican party, the main competitor of the ruling party of justice and development in Turkey: they say, all problems because of the Islamist of Erdogan, but the position of the Republicans-Kemalists is quite consonant with the interests of Russia.

But in Turkey, these slogans made the opposite effect. “Literally the very next day, the passage of the speech of the Russian ex-deputy was twisted on our channels with an adaptive translation, he was quoted by all pro-government newspapers,” says the Turkish interlocutor NT . “As a result, the leader of the Republicans Kemal Kalychdaroglu had to publicly make excuses that he was not at all an agent of Moscow and, like Erdogan, strictly stands for the indestructibility of national borders.”

When on January 29, Ankara announced the next violation of the Turkish air border by the Russian Su-34, Kalychdaroglu was the first to say that "it was necessary to knock down again."

Unlucky sky

It is worth recalling that an reverent attitude to the indestructibility of the Turkish-Syrian border appeared at Ankara in 2012, when the Syrian air defense shot down the Turkish F-4 fighter-that the situation was very similar to the current incident with the Russian plane. The Turkish “phantom”, making a maneuver, slightly hooked the Syrian sky, but this turned out to be enough for the Russian-made complex of the Russian-made “Istvir-S” to make a aimed shot.

Then the Turkish politicians said the word in the word the same thing that Russian now say-they say that such random violations are possible, this happens due to the difficulty of controlling jet aircraft at high speeds, but why immediately knock down? There is clearly no threat.

The Turks claim that before they used force on November 24, at least 13 dangerous rapprochement of Russian bombers and Turkish fighters patrolling the border were recorded. On October 3 and 6, 2015, Russian planes unequivocally entered the Turkish airspace - both incidents of the Russian Ministry of Defense recognized and explained by chance. Perhaps it was so. But Ankara took into account something else: violations of the Turkish airspace occurred against the backdrop of the air-air frank trolling of NATO by Russian VKS in the Baltic Sea for several previous months. Therefore, the Turks did not really believe us.

The Turks claim that before they used force on November 24, at least 13 dangerous rapprochement of Russian bombers and Turkish fighters were recorded

On October 16, the Russian Orlan-10 drone was shot down in the Turkish sky. This time, our Ministry of Defense denied the belonging of the drone forces for the forces of the Russian Air Force - they did not believe us again. Then, for the first time, an alarming call sounded: the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that "if it were a plane, we would have acted exactly the same."

On November 19, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Turkey Andrei Karlov was called to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, where he was awarded a note of protest: Russian aviation acts too close to the Turkish border, and this is regarded as a threat. A warning was separately spelled out in the note: in the event of our aircraft in the Turkish sky, strength will necessarily be applied.

Nevertheless, five days later, the Su-24 crossed the border again-the force was applied, the pilot died, and during rescue events a Russian helicopter was also shot down and the Russian Marine also died.

Judging by the reaction of Vladimir Putin, Russia really did not expect this. The representative of the Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov began to explain that the memorandum of the prevention of incidents in the air was signed with the Americans, and they were obliged to bring the developed rules to their allies, including Turkey.

In other words, we did not even consider it necessary to agree with the Turks, which the Russian officialdom, on the one hand, represented the people as friends (the Turkish Stream project, mutual investments, a mass vacation in Turkish resorts, etc.), and on the other, Turkey was clearly not considered to be an equal in Moscow - adult uncles would all discuss and tell you, how to behave correctly. At the same time, the main thing was not taken into account in Russia: in Turkey, about the same processes that are called “getting up with the knees” today. Türkiye Erdogan, like Russia of Putin, is in the process of "gaining a worthy place in the world."

“When you got into Syria, our military agreed on the so -called red line, this is the phone number that you can always call, and at the other end there will always be a person who can immediately solve the problem, then at least instantly report on the situation of the one who can solve,” says NT on the terms of strict anonymity by another Turkish interlocutor from among the officials in Ankara. - That is, even in the most operational layout for such negotiations, it takes 10-15 minutes, and the air incident lasts seconds. When approaching the border, each time we warned your aircraft by radio communications, but your pilots never answered. As a result, many of our military came to the conclusion that your pilots maintain a connection only through closed channels, but ordinary radio communications are completely disconnected. ”

Angel Merkel after a meeting with Turkey Prime Minister Akhmet Davutoglu condemned the actions of Russia in Syria, Ankara, Turkey, February 8, 2016

The Turks do not exclude that Russian pilots could really not hear them. However, Turkish pilots consider it a dangerous occupation to establish visual contact with them in the sky. Why-the Turkish interlocutor of the magazine explains again: “Before we shot down your bomber, attempts to establish such contact were, and each time the special equipment installed in our planes showed that there was a“ capture of the target ”: that is, some air defense means based on the ground take our planes to the sight when we converged.” At first, the Turks believed that the air of Russian “drying” on their territory is true, but now more and more Turkish military are sure: the Russians specially want to lure Turkish planes to Syrian territory in order to hit them “on legal grounds” there.

After the incident with the Su-24, the President Erdogan and his family were accused of smuggling oil, which the ruling Turkish clan allegedly buys from IG * . Soon, however, it turned out that if oil from IG* and enters Turkey, then through Kurdish intermediaries, an ally and lobby of the interests of which Russia is. In the same way, by the way, the Kurds sell oil produced in IG * , and Bashar Assad.

"Wolf" plot

On January 29, the Russian-Turkish conflict gained a second wind. Ankara said that the Russian fighter-bomber Su-34 again violated the Turkish airspace. In Russia, it was not accepted to climb into the pocket - the Russian special services immediately arose regarding our passenger aircraft, blown up over Sinai on November 17, 2015: it turns out that this attack was by no means “Islamic State” * , and in its weed, the Turkish terrorist organization “Bozkurt” (“Bozkurt”). It is clear that it was our special services that inspired the plot with the “wolves”. Recall: the pilot of the Su-24 bomber shot down in November Oleg Peshkov was shot in the air while he was descending on parachute. Alparslan Chelik, a Turkish citizen and a really member of the Bozkurt organization, who were shooting him. However, the connection of the “wolves” with IG * is impossible, if only because the same Chelik, going to Syria as a volunteer in 2014, gave an interview widely known in Turkey, in which he explained: he is going to help the Turkomans brothers (ethnically close to the Turks, living in Syria in Syria in the areas of the areas.

The Turkish “gray wolves” have, of course, a rich track record, but in general these are classic neo -Nazis, extremely hostile to any manifestations of political Islam - both to the most radical, both the “Islamic state” * and the most moderate, both the ruling party of justice and development (PSR).

Erdogan trap

However, the main apple of contention in Russian-Turkish relations is not regular violations of the Turkish air border by our aircraft. The Turks are extremely preoccupied with the fact that the Assad army, with the support of Russian aviation, is developing an offensive in the north of Syria, inhabited by Turkoman, who in Turkey are considered to be approximately the same “their own” in which we considered the inhabitants of Lugansk and Donetsk.

Erdogan is in a difficult situation. In the eyes of the country's population, she looks like this: ours is killed, and the president is silent

Now Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in a difficult situation. In the eyes of the country's population, she looks like this: ours is killed, and the president is silent. It is significant that the electoral support of the Turkish leader is now a little more than 50%, although sociological measurements at the end of November last year, immediately after the Su-24 incident, showed that the government’s actions approve of more than 70% of the population.

And no matter how Erdogan would like to avoid a direct collision with Russia, sooner or later he will be forced to somehow intervene in the situation on the Syrian front, otherwise he will begin the problems of the country.

The second factor forcing Erdogan to take a decisive step is Kurdish separatism. The terrorist attacks in Turkey are organized not only by jihadists, but also by militants from Kurdish Levakian structures, which over the years of the Syrian war were strengthened with American and then Russian support. Now in Turkey, it has already begun, as 20-30 years ago, clashes with armed detachments of Kurdish communists, whose bases are in Syria.

Sooner or later, this should end with the introduction of the Turkish contingent into Syria and the occupation of territories where friendly Turkoman and hostile Kurds are based.

Do not forget that in addition to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, which has already pronounced such plans, may also invade Syria. Thus, all Syria will fall into several occupation zones-Russian-Iranian, Saudi, Turkish. And then, almost one hundred percent, not partisan detachments and the Assad army scattering without external undergrounds, but the forces of at least countries are the leaders of the region, will no longer enter the combat contact. The clashes in the air of “drying” and “phantoms” will no longer be called incidents, but combat everyday life. And few people will remember that no one wanted such a turn of events, that all this is the result of a misunderstanding and misunderstanding. This will be a classic war from the series of "unexpected."

Photo: AFP/East News

* ISIS, or IG ("Islamic State") is a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.