Translated material
World War in Miniature
Can the Syrian conflict go beyond the country: The Washington Post
The Civil War in Syria has long turned into an indirect conflict. In Syria, the interests of many regional and global players came together, each of which solves their own problems during the conflict. In recent weeks, against the backdrop of the ongoing battles for Aleppo - the largest city of Syria before the war - these interweaving of interests have become more complicated. Many are afraid not only of the new escalation of the conflict, but also its distribution outside the territory of Syria. The head of the The Washington Post in Beirut, Liz Sly, calls what is happening in Syria “The World War in Miniature”.
As Liz Slya notes, the competing powers from the very beginning of the Civil War in Syria began to support the opposite sides of the conflict. Over the years, the forces involved in the Syrian confrontation became more and more.
Now in Aleppo and the environs there are Russian Air Force, armed formations from Iraq and Lebanon, as well as Iranian military and specialists supporting Syria President Bashar al -Assad. They are opposed by various divisions of the Syrian opposition, which are supported by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Kurdish forces use the conflict to seize new territories within Syria, and the Islamic state ( organization is prohibited in the Russian Federation ) in general turmoil to win several settlements.
At the end of the week, a truce should come into force, which Syria and the leading world powers agreed at a meeting in Munich Syria. According to Liz Sly, shortly before the truce, the battles around Aleppo only tightened - Russia strengthened the intensity of strokes in order to improve positions in the upcoming negotiations; Türkiye joined the conflict, which answered the artillery at the offensive of the Kurds.
The battle for Aleppo has been conducted since 2012, before the conflict of Russia and other supporters, government troops lost it. The eastern areas of the city all this time remained the most important stronghold of the opposition. If Assad’s troops manage to knock out the rebels from Aleppo, this will mean a fracture in the five -year conflict.
However, not only the outcome of the Syrian Civil War depends on the situation around Aleppo. For Moscow, participation in this war is the opportunity to establish itself in the Middle East as a dominant regional player. For Iran and Shiite militants from Iraq and Lebanon, it is a way to expand the boundaries of influence at the expense of Syria Sunni areas. For the Kurds-the ability to connect their enclaves on the Syrian-Turkish border. Finally, it is important for Turkey to prevent the Kurds seized the territory along its borders - Ankara has been conflicting with the Kurds inhabiting the eastern regions of Turkey for decades.
Since some of the Kurds are fighting on the side of Assad and Moscow, part on the side of the rebels and Washington, Turkey’s actions lead to a deterioration in both Russia and the United States. However, exacerbation with Russia also leads to an increase in tension between Russia and NATO, which includes Türkiye. Experts interviewed by The Washington Post assure that Türkiye will not intentionally get involved in the war in Syria, but the risk of unintentional escalation is extremely great. After an incident with a shot down by Russian aircraft, any careless movement by Turkey is guaranteed to provoke Russia.
“[In Syria] we are observing the classic confrontation between the balance of forces, only very confusing and fraught with the most dangerous consequences,” says Salman of the step, the political consultant, whose company is associated with the process of Syrian settlement (English).