The vicious circle of the crisis

A new fall in real incomes in Russia at the beginning of the year (6.3% in January) turned out to be almost a record since the beginning of the crisis - it was a little large only nine months ago, in May. Real salaries in the country were immediately reduced by 9.5% in 2015, which became its most crushing outcome . “In past crises, we have not seen this,” the Minister of Labor and Social Development admitted. And the fall in a year of real income (by 4%) turned out to be four times larger than only a year earlier. Following the income of the population, consumer demand in the country collapsed, and this is not only the main component of its economy, but also the base for all future salaries in it.

In 2015 , the total expenses of Russians exceeded their current income - this was not almost 20 years old! In other words, the population was forced to more actively spend their own savings. And so far there are no signs that in 2016 his income will again exceed current expenses.

Private consumption in Russia accounts for more than 50% of the total volume of the national economy. And private demand sharply reduced due to the fall in the population’s incomes means only an even greater decline in the income of Russian enterprises. The very income, of which, as a result, their employees and salaries are paid. It turns out a kind of vicious circle ...

“In the best case, we are waiting for several years if not a recession, then at least stagnations,” says former Minister of Economy of Russia Andrei Nechaev :

- This is really a vicious circle ... The decline in consumer demand reduces the rate of economic growth in general and the income of enterprises. And here there is no miraculous means - except, perhaps, one factor related to consumer lending. For many years, its rapid growth was an additional stimulant of consumer demand as a whole. But in 2015, for the first time in about 15 years, its total volumes were also reduced, and not just the growth rate again. And, probably, the Central Bank could make certain efforts - in particular, changing the regulatory requirements for banks, evaluating their risks - in order to stimulate the resumption of consumer lending, and already through it - consumer demand. After all, the state is not able to directly increase it today. In general, it can do something here only in terms of state employees, pensioners, as well as people who receive various social benefits or scholarships . But in the current state of the state budget, the authorities are actually devoid of this possibility. Of course, measures are also necessary to further reduce inflation. But some miraculous key, thanks to which it would be possible to sharply revive consumer demand in the country in a short time, simply does not exist! ..

After the crisis of 2008-2009, it was the growth of population incomes-first of all, due to the constant increase in salaries to state employees, and then in other sectors-in many respects and ensured the restoration of Russian economy. However, he turned out to be short -lived, but this is a separate conversation. Today, there is no money for such stimulation in the budget. But, as some experts offer from time to time, the state could go to a significant increase in the volume of public debt, since it is minimal in Russia, compared with other countries. In relation to GDP, it, for example, is six times less than even the average level for 19 eurozone countries. And due to the proceeds from the sale of new government bonds, they say, it would be possible to expand state expansion to stimulate domestic consumption , without increasing the deficiency of the budget itself. However, in general, such an idea and opponents have more than enough, and also for obvious reasons ...

- Here it is still necessary to distinguish, and in which markets are you going to borrow? If we talk about external duty, then the really direct debt of the government and the Central Bank is relatively small and does not exceed $ 50 billion today. However, approximately 52% of the total external debt of Russia are debts of state banks, state -owned companies and state corporations. And it is difficult to imagine that the state allowed bankruptcy for external obligations, say, Gazprom, Rosneft or Sberbank and, accordingly, their transition to the control of private Western creditors. It is just as difficult to imagine that the state agrees with a similar scenario and in relation to large, formally, private companies such as “Norilsk Nickel” or “Lukoil”. So it turns out that the overwhelming part of the total Russian external debt, which is about $ 515 billion, is actually sovereign debt, and it exceeds the country's foreign exchange reserves. In addition, due to sanctions for Russia, Western lending markets were actually closed-American or European. Yes, Asian markets remain. But, say, the same China is especially not eager to lend to anyone, except for the United States where it buys state securities. Other countries simply do not have sufficient volumes of free capital. Therefore, although theoretically the external source of borrowed funds for Russia exists, there is no need to count on it in some large volumes ...

So far, this is not manifested in the fact that people are fired. After all, unemployment in the country remains low

The domestic market remains, albeit much more modest in terms of possible borrowing. Some experts are sure that the new issues of government bonds would be bought out primarily by the largest state -owned banks ...

-Firstly, it cannot be said that this market is small. It exceeds 4 trillion rubles, and this is already an amount comparable to sovereign government funds (according to the Ministry of Finance, there were 3.7 trillion rubles in the reserve fund by the beginning of February, the national welfare fund amounted to 5.3 trillion rubles. - RS) . But the main thing is that he was already rapidly growing recently. And there is a very serious danger here. It is clear that interest in the debt obligations of the state by banks and other creditors is much higher than in the debts of private business. And now getting into the market with significant volumes of borrowing, this is already a difficult situation with business lending will aggravate even more: due to higher risks of private borrowers, interest rates on their papers will only grow. Namely, many experts call high rates on loans today the main reason for all Russian troubles in terms of economic growth. Therefore, if such a powerful factor appears that will contribute to even more betting, well, then we can probably put the cross to a large extent on economic growth in the country! .. Moreover, even if we imagine that by increasing the state debt, without increasing the budget deficit, it will be able to expand our expenses in order to stimulate consumer demand, I am far from sure that the total result of these efforts will be in favor Demand ...

The devaluation of the ruble, although slower, but continues. And one of the troubles of the Russian economy is that there is no competitive environment in it

In recent decades, many countries of the world have made attempts to withdraw national economies from the next crises through the implementation of certain large projects with the participation of the state. They were in Russia in recent years. But to what extent are such measures applicable here today?

- Our state has already used these tools to a large extent. A rather active investment demand of recent years was not associated with private investments, but with state ones. Including megaproects such as the APEC summit and giant construction on the island of Russian, the Winter Olympiad, and now the upcoming World Cup are such megaprojects. Crimea, of course, also became an independent megaproject in terms of spending budget funds. But the problem is that the state today simply does not have resources for this! Now the main problem is how to bring the budget in line with economic realities , how to choose priorities, which budget items can be less painfully reduced, how to identify the most ineffective budget expenses in order to reduce them?

And in the best case, I believe, we are waiting for several years, if not a recession, then at least stagnations and chatting “around zero”

The crises of 1998 and 2009 distinguished a quick and deep decline in the Russian economy, but also a rapid resumption of its growth upon reaching the “bottom”. And according to the way their trajectory on the graphs eventually looks, such a development of events is called “V -Crisis”, in the form of the Latin letter “ V ”. By analogy, the current one is already called the “L-crisis” , in the shape of the Latin letter “ L ”, that is, when the decline is not an early, but a very long recovery. By this logic, will domestic consumption in Russia now recover very slowly, years? Unless, of course, it does not happen, say, a sharp take -off of oil prices ...

-I'm not sure that the economy has already reached the “bottom” ... Although, if there are no extraordinary events, the pace of its fall will certainly slow down. If apocalyptic forecasts come true that the price of oil can fall up to $ 20 per barrel, this will, of course, become a serious test for the Russian economy. In addition, it is more and more reasonable to believe, for foreign policy considerations that in 2016 Russia will live in the regime of economic sanctions, which become more painful. Therefore, I think that the “bottom” has not yet been achieved. Although we heard from all kinds of high -ranking persons, up to the president, bravura reports that , they say, the “bottom” of the crisis has been passed since the end of April, and that, they say, the resumption of economic growth is expected. But somehow, this growth is pushing and pushing back ... And in the best case, I believe, we are waiting for several years if not a recession, then at least stagnation and chatting around zero, if we talk about the growth rates of GDP. Accordingly, the problems of the budget are inevitable, and therefore there is no need to count on a serious increase in state employees' revenues or a serious indexation of pensions. On the other hand, stagnation in the economy is stagnation in the private sector. Accordingly, here you also do not have to count on the growth of salaries. It is more likely that we are waiting for a further decrease in real incomes of the population, although not as sharp as the growth of these income. That is, the L-shaped crisis curve will have an extended “bottom” extended to the lower line.

In addition, more and more reasons to believe that 2016 Russia will live in economic sanctions, which are becoming more painful

In 2016, if there are no new shocks, annual inflation in Russia, according to many forecasts, can be reduced almost double compared to the pace of 2015. By itself, this factor, according to your ideas, can, to any noticeable extent, increase the current expenses of Russian families-in the conditions of a decline in their income, the reasons for which are not yet visible? ..

-Well, firstly, I strongly doubt that inflation will double-if you do not engage in any statistical manipulations. After all, the devaluation of the ruble, although slower, but continues. And one of the troubles of the Russian economy is that it does not have a competitive environment. Well, or it is largely suppressed by the absolute predominance of several dozen state or state -controlled companies in the economy. And in such a situation , the devaluation of the ruble does not lead to an increase in the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers . They do not occupy a niche of imports in the domestic market, but rather simply increase prices for their products after the imported one. Moreover, a significant part of the products is produced in Russia using imported raw materials, imported components, and imported equipment ... In some sectors, it is simply decisive. For example, in pharmaceuticals, where the devaluation of the ruble is therefore the most immediate way affects costs.

To what extent, in your opinion, is the impact on the current inflation of the factor of Russian food counter -sanctions introduced back in 2014?

- Perhaps the inflation in the direction of its decrease is that most of the effect of counter -sanctions has already been exhausted ... A certain import substitution has been partially occurred, partially - just a deterioration in quality, food, partially, a change in the assortment ... But in general, a splash of inflation associated with counter -sanctions is probably already exhausted. And the third point is that the reducing incomes of the population and, as a result, the falling consumer demand simply restraints prices. Here, however, there is another side. When the enterprise is growing, and solvent demand is stagnated or even reduced, its income is also reduced. And less and less he has the possibilities of maintaining the previous income of his employees or in general - to preserve their previous number. So far, this is not manifested in the fact that people are fired. After all, unemployment in the country remains low. But in order to maintain at least the most valuable personnel in the conditions of a decline in production due to demand, enterprises go to such tricks as a shortened working day, an abbreviated working week, forced quasi-breed unpaid leave and so on ... This cannot continue endlessly. And from the point of view of not the labor market, but consumer demand is, in fact, it is equivalent to the same decrease in the income of employees of the enterprise, as if their nominal wages were just falling. Therefore, it seems to me that in the current situation of growth in the income of the population and, accordingly, their expenses are simply difficult to expect.