Ministry of Economic Development: the crisis will last until 2019

The new forecast of the socio-economic development of Russia until 2019 laid low oil prices, as well as the extension of sanctions and counter-sanctions. According to Vedomosti, the document is prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development, in April it should be represented by the government.

As the ministry suggests, the price of oil all four years will remain below $ 50 per barrel. In the basic version, its average price in 2016 is $ 35 per barrel, in the next three years - 40, 45 and 45 dollars per barrel, respectively. In a conservative version, oil is cheaper than in the base, for $ 10. The optimistic option coincides with the base.

At the same time, officials are stipulated that we are not talking about forecast, but about some conditions for discussion. According to sources of the publication, the Ministry of Finance has already calculated the budget of 25, 30 and 40 dollars per barrel.

The budget will continue to save on social expenses, officials are sure. Pensions, as in 2016, will be indexed once a year to the target level of inflation - 4 percent. True, the Ministry of Economic Development expects that this goal will not be achieved in 2017, as the Central Bank expects, or even in 2019. In real terms, over these four years, pensions will decrease by about 10 percent.

The amount of indexation of the salaries of teachers, doctors, teachers and other categories of state employees will depend on the situation in the labor market. The Ministry of Economic Development proceeds from the fact that the nominal salaries of these categories of state employees will not decrease.

The indexation of salaries of other state employees, including civil servants, is frozen until the end of 2019 with an annual reduction in their number by 5 percent. Similarly, the accumulative part of the pension is frozen for all four years.

Budget investments in human capital - the costs of healthcare, education, culture - will be maintained in relation to GDP at the current level, suggests the Ministry of Economic Development. This means that in real terms they will decline.

There is no forecast for GDP dynamics in this document of the Ministry of Economic Development, but with a predicted oil price, the economy of Russia will continue to decline at least another year. In the January version of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in 2016, a decline was expected 0.8 percent with oil worth $ 40 per barrel.