17–91–17

On August 1, 1991, US President George Hwbush, after a very friendly meeting with the President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev in Moscow, arrived in Kiev, where he performed at a meeting of the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR with a speech that went down in history as Chicken Kiev Speech . Bush decided to warn Ukrainian parliamentarians (for the most part - members of the CPSU) about the dangers of "suicidal nationalism" and preached from the rostrum of the charms of Ukraine in the updated Soviet Union, headed by the laureate of the Nobel Prize of the World. Ukrainian comrades quite coldly met the speech of the American president; At the end of August, the same Supreme Council proclaimed the independence of Ukraine, then confirmed by mass voting for "for" during a national referendum in all regions of this country, including Crimea.

The US administration at that time was extremely disturbed by the prospect of the collapse of the USSR primarily in connection with the uncertainty of the fate of the Kremlin nuclear arsenal. When, unexpectedly for the United States, a few months after the speech of the American President’s “Cutlets in Kiev”, this collapse became a reality, Washington diplomacy made tremendous efforts to ensure the transfer of the Russian Federation as a successor to the USSR of nuclear weapons, which appeared in Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The crown of these efforts was the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994, according to which the Russian Federation, the United States and Great Britain guaranteed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for its rejection of nuclear status. The world recognized the price of this memorandum in February 2014.

A quarter of a century has passed since those dramatic events, and the theme of the decline of the country's country of the USSR and the prospects of its now possible collapse is again in the center of international attention. The unwillingness of the Romanov empire found out in the fourth century of its history, the USSR as an ideocratic project - in the eighth ten. Why does the post -communist incarnation of the Russian state turn into a Failed state in such a young age? The root cause, in my opinion, is the genesis of this model, its fatal birth injury. For the countries of Central Europe and the Baltic states, the events of the 1989-91 of the last century were simultaneously democratic and national revolutions, the positive energy of which gave rise to successful state projects. For the USSR - as it now becomes obvious in the historical perspective - perestroika was a conscious operation of the party and gabist nomenclature on the conversion of their collective absolute political power into enormous personal conditions.

Over a hundred nearly years, the great villains of the revolution (Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin) first turned into ridiculous helpless elders (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko), and then, sprinkled with a live water of nomenclature privatization, were resourceed by young sports sex oil oil industry (Putin, Abramovich, Timchenko). These purely criminal characters are genuine heirs of October-1917, the last generation of its leaders and leaders of Russia, the natural and inevitable result of the evolution of the "new class".

They created a mafia state for themselves, in which there are no mechanisms of a market economy and, above all, an institution of private property. The path of the “owner” to success in Russia does not lie through effective production and successful competition, but through the proximity or direct belonging to the “power vertical”, through the operation of its administrative resource (a small or not at all a small piece of the state) and through the absolute loyalty of the ruling mafia and its plowman. The nomenclature umbilical cord, connecting the newborn Russian capitalism with the authorities, not only remained nonsense, but also grew into a huge insatiable intestine. As a result, a mutant of the continual privatization of the state was born, devouring the country and depriving it of its historical perspective.

The criminal Putinomic, unable to jump off the oil needle, could stagnate for raw materials for raw materials for a long time, but no substantive development, no business initiative and no innovation are possible in it in principle. Until recently, the regime could be carried out by a simple social contract concluded with the population: the Kremlin provided a significant part of the subjects of the subject (by Russian historical standards) standard of living, including the Turkish boarding house once a year and a pretended foreign car, and in response allowed the acting leadership to steal billions and remains for a lifetime remain at the feeder.

But the war with Ukraine and the aggravation of relations with the West accelerated the inevitable collapse of the Potemkin village of the Russian "market economy" and revealed a primitive thieves' common grandmother. Pahanat was unable to fulfill his fifteen -year social contract with society more. The attempt of the fraternal dismemberment of Ukraine, which dropped the clone of the Putin regime - the Kleptocracy of Yanukovych, shamefully failed. The massive Russian consciousness and the “Middle Eastern project” of the Kremlin did not carry away, despite the spectacular shows with launching cruise missiles from ships and submarines and, the worst thing for the authorities, he did not close the socio-economic agenda. On the contrary, this agenda is becoming more and more acute.

According to all the laws of life and death of authoritarian regimes, the victim of serious foreign policy failures Putin's Russia has matured for a fall. However, there is a factor that prolongs her agony: the mentality of the Russian elite-nouveau. Every day of the ongoing stay at the highest state post, an inadequate character exacerbates a disaster experienced by Russia, makes it even more difficult to get out of it, which becomes dangerous for its immediate environment. In such situations (there were dozens of them in front of our contemporaries), the removal of the dictator usually occurs as a result of a combination of two factors: mass protest on an active minority street and the split of the elites.

A similar situation was in Russia in the winter of 2011-12. According to some reports, up to 200,000 demonstrators with the slogan "Putin should leave!" As an active participant in those events, I can indicate that, with signs of a serious split at the top, the next day, up to a million sympathizers and hesitated to the protesters. But the slightest sign of such a split followed.

Regions lose faith in the possibility of central authority to prevent the collapse of the economic crisis

Such a persistent and to date, the timid of the members of the Putin's expanded Politburo psychologically and politically convincingly explained the authors of the report “Power - Elites - Elite” , people who know this environment well and, in essence, themselves belong to it: “The elites may have serious claims and discontent, but they are overcome by fear of all who are not inscribed in the pyramid, from perifouris. Elite groups to the massive layers of society experiencing demathy ... Putin is considered by elites as a political cover, without which the current regime simply has nothing more to hold on.

The Kremlin "elites", possess at least a minimum of civil responsibility and initiative, could help the country get rid of the Putin regime, part of which they themselves are. But these people are well aware that at the same time they themselves will definitely not return to power in post -Putin Russia. Therefore, the scenario of a split with Putin seems to them a naive self -sacrifice, they prefer to dutifully and comply with the Putin marathon with a loop around his neck.

In a different situation, there are regional and especially national-regional elites, which remain and, moreover, there are new dizzying prospects for the political future in post-Putin Russia. We are already accustomed to the fact that the Kadyrovskaya Chechnya enjoys independence, which the founders of the Chechen state could not even dream of a quarter century ago, and regularly receives a contribution from Moscow. Even signs of further collapse of the appearance of the vertical of the Russian authorities are observed: it is enough to recall the recent transfer of Kadyrov to the Russian oil company and the actual closure (contrary to the requirements of the Putin's security forces themselves) the murder of Boris Nemtsov.

Suddenly, the president of Tatarstan spoke recently recently. Rustam Minnikhanov stubbornly continues to call himself the president, despite the decision of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to cancel the presidential titles for everyone except Capo Di Tutti Capi . Still, the President of Tatarstan said that its republic will not allow some federal adventurers to destroy its traditional cultural and economic ties with Turkey. The Chuvashia neighboring with Tatarstan raised the question of restoring the term "state" in its republican constitution. For a long time, regional leaders did not allow themselves to speak out like that.

And this is a very disturbing signal for Moscow. Regions lose faith in the possibility of central authority to prevent the collapse of the economic crisis. Moreover, selecting all the resources from the regions (with the exception of the North Caucasus, the loyalty of the rulers of which is bought by generous budget subsidies), Moscow is responsible for social policy for regions managers, leaving them one on one with a rapidly poor population. And this is against the backdrop of the shameless demonstrative enrichment of the capital's millionaire children-seagulls, Patrushevs, Rotenbergs, Ivanovs, Ekaterina Tikhonova-Putina.

In such conditions, territorial decay becomes very likely - no, not a federation that has never been, but the same centuries -old Horde Empire, as already happened in 1917 and in 1991. If in the capital the pathologically greedy and cowardly “cream of the nation” closes any holes through which protest steam can enter, then no less cynical regional elites will prefer to use the energy of the increasing elements in their interests at an acute moment. The Horde-Downshifter, like a quarter of a century ago, will most likely decay on programmed administrative cracks. Moreover, the mystical seventeenth year is approaching.

In Washington, they will again be extremely concerned about the fate of the now Russian nuclear arsenal. American diplomacy will make tremendous efforts to convene 26 new independent states in the Budapest conference in order to sign a memorandum on the transfer of all nuclear weapons and their delivery of Muscovy as a successor to the UN Security Council in exchange for its oath guarantees of sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the remaining 25 states.

Andrey Piontkovsky - political expert

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office