Translated material
Fraufviderzein?
In Germany, after elections in three federal lands, they started talking about the end of the "era Merkel"
For the first time since the beginning of a large -scale migration crisis, which was most affected by Germany, not through polls, but through direct voting, the mood of about thirteen million voters found out
On Sunday, March 13, in Germany, elections in the Landtags were held at once in three federal lands: Baden-Würtyumberg, Reinland-Palatze and Saxony-Anhalt. In political circles and the media, this day has long been dubbed by the “supervision” and it is clear why:
For the first time since the beginning of a large -scale migration crisis, which was most affected by Germany - the country accepted more than 1.1 million refugees in 2015 - it was not through polls, but by direct voting to find out the mood of about thirteen million voters.
The last weeks before the elections have passed in nervous tension. Almost daily, different sociological services and institutions made measurements of political preferences of Bundesburgers. Politicians and political scientists, analysts and journalists in television talk shows, interviews and newspaper and journalal publications tried to predict the alignment of forces on the eve and after the “supervision” and how this will affect the federal elections of 2017.
Of course, the main theme of the election campaigns of parties and the main candidates for the post of prime ministers in all three lands were the problem of refugees and the migration policies of the federal government, led by Angel Merkel.
The most difficult thing was representatives of the ruling “large coalition”-Christian and social democrats: it was necessary to demonstrate their own approach to the decision of the migration crisis and at the same time not to deviate too much from the general line of the leadership of the CDS and the SDPG. Despite the fact that they literally on the heels were advancing from the Law Popopulistic Party of the Alternative for Germany (AFD), which actively gaining voters' sympathy thanks to anti -migration slogans and strict criticism of the Chancellor policy.
Still, the leaders of the lands of the CDS dared to distance themselves from the thesis nominated Merkel "We will overcome this!" In relation to the migration crisis and during the election campaign, they advocated the introduction of reasonable limits for receiving refugees,
That since the fall of last year, the Prime Minister of Bavaria and the chairman of the Christian Social Union (subsidiary of the CDS) Horst Zeehover consistently defended.
Despite such a demarche of the same party members, the Chairman of the CDS and the head of the government Merkel, having visited the pre -election events in all three lands, tried to personally support nominees from Christian democrats. However, as the results of the elections showed, even the authority and the former popularity of Frau Chancellor could not prevent the party from painful defeat.
In Baden-Württemberg, the CDS had the task of not falling below the 30 percent level (it was almost 39%five years ago) to get the opportunity for coalition maneuvers in the formation of the government, if competitors did not gain the same number of votes. But even it was not possible to take this obviously low bar-they sank to 27 percent, letting forward a party of “green”, led by the charismatic acting Prime Minister Vinfrid Kretschman.
Julia Kleklener, who is running in the Rhineland Palatz from Christian Democrats, who makes a successful and quick career and who, according to German experts, vilely, Angel Merkel, had every chance of winning. So, at least, preliminary forecasts were approved, giving HDS a convincing preference to SDPG in solid 10 points. (By the way, for the first time in the political history of Germany in the land elections, two women's candidates from the main parties opposed each other.)
It was more offensive by the Cleckner and its associates to observe the summarizing online: Social Democrats, led by the current head of the Land Cabinet of Ministers, Malu Dreyer went around them by 4.4%. The loss of Christian democrats, according to experts, was largely due to the fact that their electorate did not forgive the treacherous behavior of the main candidate in relation to Merkel in the issue of migration policy.
In Saxony-Anhalt of the CDU, it was possible to hold the championship, losing only about three percent of the vote. But here it is difficult to call a victory, since the AFD, triumphantly gaining more than 24 percent, becomes the second in the number of deputy mandates by the party in the Landtag.
What the democratic forces of Germany did not want and feared passionately and feared. The alternative party created just three years ago on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, which then united in its ranks of the opponents of European integration, was able to successfully profiled in the situation of the migration crisis, advocating the complete closure of German borders for refugees and the introduction of strict rules for the integration of migrants.
Some leaders even proposed allowing the border police to open fire to defeat when identifying cases of illegal crossing of German borders, or making exceptions for women and children.
In the course of the current elections, along with a deafening success in Saxony-Anhalt, the “alternative” confidently entered the parliaments of the other two lands, having received 15.1% in Baden-Württemberg respectively, 12.6% of the votes in the Rhineland Palata. Now the AFD will have its representatives in eight of the 16 lands of Germany.
Against this background, the failure of the Social Democrats in the land elections, which in general, is not saved by the victory of Malu Dreyer in the Rhineland-Palata , remaining more likely a spoonful of honey in the barrel of tar. In two other lands, the SDPG lost more than 10% in each, becoming only the fourth most important by the parliamentary faction, which greatly reduces the possibilities of coalition negotiations and completely deprives the chances of taking leading ministerial posts in future governments.
Along with the Social Democrats, the parties of the "green" and "left" suffered tangible losses. “Green”, who unconditionally supported Merkel’s migration policy, with the exception of success in Baden-Württemberg in Reynland-Paffall and Saxony-Anhalt were forced to actually fight for overcoming the 5%barrier in order to preserve their parliamentary representative office.
The “left” were able to stay in the landtag of Saxony-Anhalt, but without hopes to take a second position on significance and participate in the formation of the government. But free democrats (SVDP), after a five-year break, managed to return to a political advance in two lands-Baden-Württemberg and Reynland-Palata-and, possibly, become a decisive factor in future coalition negotiations.
In general, the results of the past elections completely changed the alignment of forces within the framework of the previous coalitions. Considering that all democratic parties taking place in the Landtags categorically refuse to consider AFD representatives as coalition partners, the process of forming capable governments can be delayed for a long period.
Elections in the three lands of Germany immediately distinguished the activity of voters in comparison with the usual obvious-an average of 10-15%. At the same time,
What is characteristic, the "silent" who had previously ignored participation in political life went to vote. And even more indicative is that the vast majority of these "silents" gave their votesapd,
Thus, confirming the forecasts of sociologists and political scientists: the migration crisis polarizes German society, draws into political processes the previously apolitical layers of the population and indicates a significant growth of right -wing mood, when migrants and refugees are perceived as hostile to traditional values of elements.
After the “supervision”, many observers in Germany believe that the parties of the “Big Coalition”, which are so much losing their voters, is in danger of losing the role of the so -called “folk parties”. The past elections became not just an ordinary call for them, but a real alarm - the country turns to the right and so far the ruling forces really cannot resist this.
The change in the German political landscape took place - a new serious force appeared in the person of the Alternative to Germany, which cannot be reduced by just ridiculous for the philistine fears of the strangers, or, accusing the right populism, represent the political outskirts. Now the goal of AFD is to enter the Bundestg in the 2017 election, the main consequence of which can be the end of the "era Merkel". At least, the “mothers” from the political arena spoke out loud and quite seriously not only opponents, but also supporters in their own party.