Osharashkina Office

The thing to do or shut up. Before such a difficult choice in relation to Syria, the Russian leadership Mark Toner put the Russian leadership three weeks ago, and this, of course, upset those to whom he addressed. It turned out that the representative of the State Department was badly brought up, which was immediately indicated by our various speakers, but the incident itself made a difficult impression. Still, in such a tone, even to an extreme degree of irritation, Washington has not yet been talking with Moscow. And this meant that the Americans were seriously configured and are looking forward to a specific answer to a specific question, so we must choose.

Either stop bombing, or really filter a bazaar about Geneva and Peacekeeping.

And then Vladimir Vladimirovich, reflecting on a given topic, suddenly decided to do the case , and the expert community is sores to understand what it means. Has the money is over? Assad is tired? The sanctions tired? Ukraine flashed again? Has the real threat of terrorist attacks hung over the country? Is this an action within the framework of complex backstage trade with the West?

I think that a positive answer to all questions is correct. In fact, the Syrian war devastates the Russian treasury, no matter what Putin talk about "teachings" there. The unfortunate Assad as an ally is a burden, since in the foreseeable terms it is doomed to defeat. Sanctions and counter -sanctions are destructive for the economy. Ukraine is constantly sparkling. ISIS is truly dangerous, no matter how forbid him. Trading wars and threats forms the basis of Russian foreign policy, and if the massacre in the Donbass does not manage to exchange for Krymnash, then we are looking for barriers in the Middle East to bomb them and sell them at a similar price.

The only problem is that all named assets have still turned out to be illiquid. That is why, having joined the Crimea, the Kremlin does not know how to equip this sacred territory. Having captured the Donbass, they do not comprehend where to put the gangster there and how to attract a silent local population. Saving Alavites, they do not know how to defend the Russian world from the Sunni world now, including Ottoman. As a result, Putin Russia consistently and successfully sets up against itself all with whom its hybrid trade wars, not to mention the victims of aggression. So you have to either imitate the world, as in the Donbass, or celebrate victory and get out, as in Syria.

What next? There is no number forecasts, and the most disappointing ones come down to the fact that Russia will now return to Ukraine, where for a long time hidden tractor drivers have already been manufactured for the assault on Mariupol. It is believed that Vladimir Vladimirovich hopes for the withdrawal of troops from Syria, nevertheless, to bargain for himself some softening of sectoral sanctions. The pessimists are inclined to the idea that Putin is nowhere else to fight and he will take his soul to the people who have subordinate to him. Optimists for the same reason seek a new restructuring with its inherent publicity and triumphal entry into the lower house of the parliament of several deputies from Yabloko.

Experience, however, inclines to other assumptions.

The fact is that Putin’s methodology does not boil down to wars and throwing on the globe in order to score some other goods in overpowered customers. Much more significant for him, sexot to the brain of bones, underground man, the desire to hit the world. Therefore, he always seeks to perform only unpredictable acts. This also applies to rare good deeds in his list: well, who, tell me, expected him to have mercy on Khodorkovsky? No one, including those who for years have led hopeless negotiations with him.

This applies even more so that the affairs of the unkind, in a wide range of violations of Russian legislation to war crimes. The Anschlus of Crimea happened for the reason that almost no one foresaw this blow. Like the invasions of the Donbass, because after the Crimea it seemed obvious that he would no longer harm himself and his country, he had already harmful enough. The intervention in the Syrian conflict on the side of Assad was generally an event of a line: where Moscow, unable to digest the territory of a neighboring state, and where Damascus, Aleppo, ISIS, Jebhat al-Nusra, Turkomanes ...

And today, after he was asked not to look for and not to bomb the terrorists where they are not, and the diplomats switched to a gateway that was understandable to him, he suddenly obediently leads most of his limited contingent from Syria. Putin again amazes the world, and this is self -sufficient for him. This is the most important thing for him: to stun, dumbfound, and crush. All, starting with the poor Assad. And political scientists, and not only with the tolerances for the GOSTELEKANALS, will guess what a brilliant move it was. How he beat everyone again.

Therefore, it should hardly be assumed that in the coming days, weeks or months, Putin will commit something predictable. Vice versa. You wait for him to go to Mariupol, and he will mate some sort of crook in Karabakh, provoking the West, Erdogan, Aliyev and again trying to sell the threat of World War II for the good, as they say, money. You think that he intends to tighten the nuts within the country and around the perimeter, and he will free Savchenko and Sentsov, suddenly exchanging them for pear -unnecessary pears. After that, you will decide that the thaw is coming, and then it will just twist the nuts, and no "apple" will pass anywhere, and the protesters will be tied again, as in Bolotnaya.

Yes, and by a bonus: you believed that he was leaving Syria, and already mocking him already mocking him, and he would return. As if he had not left . Just because a friend Bashar, or God forbid, after a terrible terrorist attack in Russia, will ask him about that. And you will only have to guess about why this happened, because he seemed to show conspiracy. Guess, frightening your own guesses, like in the fall of 1999.

He will not shut up. But even in his political career there are minutes of calm, as if he suddenly restores the connection with reality, and now is just such a moment. He suddenly heard the rude speeches of the Americans and managed to surprise them. And tomorrow, choosing between a boring predictable norm and a sudden action, even a prominent disaster, he will prefer the second. Switching is such an unkempt, dictated by inspiration of a special kind. For he really lives precisely in this, other reality, which is all woven from surprises. Its power in Russia seems undivided, the deadlines do not press, the elites are obedient, the nuclear button is at hand, and the sensations are not visible.