"Shocks are too small"

How likely is the breakdown of the European Union and whether such a scenario responds to Russian interests - The New Times asked the experts

Nadezhda Arbatova, Master of European Political Studies IMEMO RAS:

Now the EU is going through difficult times, being under the influence of three crises at once: world economic, migration and Russian-Ukrainian. The migration crisis is the greatest threat to the future EU: if it is not resolved, we will see a further growth of nationalist sentiments and the triumphal procession of the right parties. Bacillus of nationalism is that which can kill European integration. So the EU must quit all his strength to overcome the crisis with migrants. Nevertheless, all these shocks are too small to allow the European Union to fall apart.

The point of view common in Russia is that the weakened European Union is beneficial to our country is erroneous. We need a strong, effective partner - Moscow loves such. When the EU solves his pressing issues, we will quickly improve mutually beneficial cooperation.

Alexey Arbatov, Head of the Center for International Security IMEMO RAS:

The situation with illegal migration has got Europeans over the past year. Given the growth of crime and the introduction of foreign standards of lifestyle, she threatens each of them personally. This phenomenon destroys Europe and can lead not only to the British separation, but also to the recreation of intra -European borders, customs, border control, etc. The threat fell unexpectedly and, in essence, became a disaster. I do not see any other grounds for the collapse of the EU - in other areas, Europeans reached completely unprecedented prosperity.

I must admit that Russia is really trying to rock the European Union. It was difficult for us before to deal with this association. We have always tried to solve economic and political problems with European powers on a bilateral basis. And after the EU on the issue of Ukraine opposed Russia as a united front, the natural reaction of the Russian Federation became attempts to drive the wedges between the participants in the Union. But such tactics will not be able to lead to the split of the EU. Indeed, even individual leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the leader of the French ultra-right Marin Le Pen or German right, who achieved success in the elections in a number of German lands, actually do not experience sincere sympathy for the Russian political elite. Their hints that they can take a special position in relation to Moscow - just a game.

Migrants are a serious, but overcoming threat to the future of the European Union, the border of Greece and Macedonia, March 14, 2016

Vyacheslav Nikonov, deputy of the State Duma, member of the Supreme Council of the United Russia party:

The European Union will not break up. There is no chance for this. The referendum in the UK will pass quite predictably and, most likely, this country will remain a member of the EU. The United States will not allow any Brexit. Moreover, the output price (Britain) would be prohibitive. From an economic point of view - a catastrophe. This is the case when the entrance is the ruble, and the output is one hundred. Another thing is that in the EU there will always be centrifugal and centripetal trends. Now the first is stronger. But in the end there is always an equilibrium (balance).

Well, Russia is always accused of everything that is the bad thing in the world, including the surge of the sun, the dim light of the stars and an attempt to shake the EU. In fact, Russia certainly does nothing like that.

Sergey Utkin, Master of Strategic estimates of the CSS RAS:

The breakdown of the European Union is extremely unlikely, if problems in the EU are arising, then not in the short term and only in individual aspects. So, for example, the collapse of the eurozone would be a serious shock for the countries included in it. But even if they are not completely satisfied with this system, they will rather reform it, and not refuse it.

The risk of Britain’s exit from the EU is definitely present, but there is no reason to believe that other countries will follow it. Applications of a number of politicians on this score are their private opinions, they do not receive broad support in the Union.

The existence of such a successful, highly developed partner, such as the EU - and we have 45 % of the turnover with him - it is beneficial for us

Most likely, ultimately, a scheme of economic interaction will be found between the EU and Great Britain like the one used for Switzerland.

The official position of Russia comes down to the fact that we are not interested in the propagation of the EU problems. But in reality, such a conclusion can not always be drawn, especially if you watch Russian television or read the comments of publicists.

In general, any changes in the EU system are the reason to adjust our relations with Brussels. There is an opinion that if this union had not developed and we would communicate at a bilateral level with individual countries, then it would be much easier for us - supposedly we could “share and rule”. But this is a speculative idea. It does not take into account the problems that could have appeared in Europe as a whole in the absence of an integration framework. Many attribute to the EU and the preservation of peace in Europe after the Second World War. It is also important for Russia.

The existence of such a successful, highly developed partner, like the EU - and we have 45 % of the turnover with him - it is beneficial for us. And this partner is highly predictable: they make decisions on the basis of consensus between 28 states.

Of course, in general, the general EU line is not always combined with Russian politics. But this is already the question of how optimally the Russian political line is formed.