The whim of the conqueror

By its behavior, Russia reminded the Swiss hired infantrymen who left their positions, saying to the French king: "There is no money - there are no Swiss." In the picture: “Battle of Pavia”, Bernart's tapestry van Orley (1531) . Photo: wikipedia.org

The first rumors about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria began to seep two days before Vladimir Putin “stunned” all this news. On March 12, the New Inform Internet portal wrote "... From reliable sources it became known that in the coming days, Russia will begin with the withdrawal of its troops from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic. All conditions have developed for such a step. ” The Russian president confirmed the information of the portal on March 14: the whole country has already learned from it that “the task in Syria as a whole has been completed”, in almost the same expressions.

To the mercy of fate

At the end of September last year, it was announced that we were going to Syria in order to defeat the Islamic State*. And the defeat of this structure, declared in Russia of terrorist, was needed by our leadership due to the fact that there are many immigrants from the Russian Federation: they say, having gained combat experience, they can return home to arrange “another Syria” here. The war in the Middle East was presented as a kind of continuation of the counter -terrorist operation in the North Caucasus, only on distant approaches.

Of course, Russian aviation and its allies on Earth did not fulfill this task: IG*, although they squeezed, but in general, Daul*, as IG* inside the IG*, retained its positions and losses that she suffered in six months of Russian pilots in Syria, you can’t call critical any way.

The second Russian task in Syria is to call it the semi -official - preserving the regime of Bashar Assad, who was called the “legitimate ruler of the country” in Russia, who invited us to fight on his side “legally” and “in accordance with international law”. Asad’s positions in the end did not fundamentally change, although it cannot be denied that at the time of Russian military intervention he was a step away from the collapse of his regime, and at the time of our departure he feels much more confident.

We are already talking about “federalization of Syria”, and if you call a spade a spade - about the dismemberment of the country into a number of territories that remain under the control of the forces that Russia has recently called terrorist

According to the Kremlin’s plan, which was also voiced last September, Russia must stop the civil war in Syria, for which we need to defeat all the terrorists (at that time we recorded everyone who opposed Assad). Well, after the legitimate president regains control of the entire territory of the country, the Syrian people will decide the fate of their power in a peaceful election. Simply put, six months ago in Moscow they were counting on the complete and unconditional victory of Assad.

The reality is that now Bashar Assad has a formal truce with part of his opponents, but in practice no one observes this truce. And after the departure of the main forces of the grouping of Russian VKS, he, remaining weakened, has even less chance of compliance with the truce.

Assad also has frozen negotiations in Geneva with part of the opposition. While Russia was on the side of the “legitimate president of Syria”, albeit a small, the chance remained that under international pressure it would be possible to reduce these negotiations to create a coalition government. Now we are already talking about the “federalization of Syria”, and if you call a spade a spade - about the dismemberment of the country into a number of territories remaining under the control of the forces that Russia recently called terrorist ones. Moreover, in addition to the internal, “terrorist”, these “autonomy” control will also fall under external control-Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey (with which Russia quarreled due to intervention in the situation) and the United States.

Obviously, this is also not similar to the implementation of the initially set task.

Coercion to handshake

The third task, standing before Russia, was never officially voiced, but almost all international experts spoke about it. In the lips of those who were opposed, it looked like this: Vladimir Putin, as a result of the Crimean-Donbass adventure, was in diplomatic isolation, in fact subjected to ostracism, the West defiantly and insulting does not want to have affairs. Its surroundings and simply loyal to him politicians and officials are closed to the United States and the European Union. In this situation, he raises bets, climbing Syria, forces himself to negotiate with himself and admit that without Russia the world -class problems are not solved.

The patriotic segment of experts represented the same topic more patho: as if it were a “New Yalta”, and Putin, like Stalin, is about to divide the whole world into the zone of influence from the United States. That is, it is not about returning to handshake, but about restoring the status of superpower and Syria - not an attempt to correct the situation spoiled by Crimea and Donbass, but in fact their continuation: we occupy a worthy place in the world and do this without asking anyone permission.

Be that as it may, the essence of what is happening does not change from the interpretation. If someone wants to see in a number of meetings about Syria “New Yalta”, then let them see.

Negotiations with Iran of the head of the Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak (in the picture) did not lead to anything, Tehran, March 14, 2016

But we must admit: in solving this third problem, Vladimir Putin advanced most. He really showed the international community that he is capable of sharp unexpected moves, that he could not ignore his desires (which he prefers to call the “geopolitical interests of Russia”). However, in this direction, the success of the local success - they speak with Putin within the framework of the Syrian situation, and not at all. There are no Russian troops in Syria - there is no reason to talk with Putin as an equivalent partner.

Perhaps, bring Putin to the Syrian history to the end, achieve the world at least in some format, he would have translated the situation to a new qualitative level, and it seems that the events in Syria developed allowed him to move in this direction. But on March 14, Putin from Syria withdrew his aircraft, therefore, the operation to “be in a shallow” can also be considered stopped.

In general, the results of the Syrian campaign do not allow us to agree with the wording “We are gone home, as we have completed all tasks,” we must look for a different reason for the recall of the troops.

Persian mercenaries

On the twenties of February, on the eve of the armistice announced in Syria, the author of these lines had an informal conversation with the representative of the Lebanese Shiite Group Hhezbollah, volunteers from which in a considerable number are fighting on the side of Assad. I wanted to find out how the allies of Assad (and, therefore, Russia) relate to the agreements of Obama and Putin about the ceasefire. It turned out that the attitude of the Hezbollah has sharply negative to the truce, it was believed that it was time to “press further”. In the conversation, we also touched the roles in the Syrian history of the famous Iranian General Kasem Suleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Revolutionary Corps (Xirir), the one, which, according to considerable legend, came to Moscow last year and convinced the Russian military and the need to support Assad and the possibility of turning the situation in Syria. According to the interlocutor from Hezbollah, the situation did not look so pathetic, the main question that was discussing with Russian generals Suleimani is “at whose expense a banquet?” The issue was resolved positively when the legendary Iranian general assured his Russian substitution: Iran in one form or another compensates for military expenses * .

At a military airfield in Buturlinovka (Voronezh region) they meet the first group of pilots who returned from Syria, March 15, 2016

I recalled a conversation with a man from Hezbollah immediately, it was worth only comparing the announcement of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria and information on negotiations in Tehran of the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak - on the accession of Iran to the cartridge agreement on the freezing of oil production.

* On March 17, Vladimir Putin called the official figure of expenses for the Syrian campaign - 33 billion rubles.

Kidok on the grandmother

The main economic problem of Russia is low oil prices. In the search for a way out of the situation, Moscow tried to agree with leading oil producing countries to reduce the level of black gold production, thus creating a kind of oil deficit and forcing to pay more expensive for a barrel of oil. In February, Katar, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela managed to interest this idea. About 15 more oil -producing countries gave potential consent to maintain frost. Russian efforts almost united the countries, which accounted for ¾ of world oil production.

The matter remained small: without the consent of the friendly Iran, such a conspiracy did not make sense. The oil embargo, imposed on our ally in the Syrian War, thoroughly squeezed it in international markets, but at the beginning of 2016, the sanctions from Iran were lifted, respectively, Iranian oil industry workers are ready to occupy any liberated niche. Therefore, it was necessary to convince Tehran to wait for the capture of the markets.

Iran will join the cartel conspiracy in terms of oil production from the point of view of Russia and was a form of compensation for military costs. Iran refused to pay on the bills - Russia refused to further participate in the war

The meeting of Alexander Novak with the Iranian oil minister by Bizhan Namdar Zangan gave a disappointing result. Zangan said that his country would not join the agreement and would restore the lost position. Only in the next three months, Iran plans to increase prey by one and a half times, and eventually bring it from the current 1.4 million to 4 million barrels per day.

Thus, on the idea of ​​raising oil prices, you can put a cross.

The results of Russian-Iranian negotiations regarding the freezing of oil production became officially known on March 14, although the result was predicted in advance. “Novak initially had no chance to negotiate with Iran,” said Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner of the Rusenergy consulting company, “the position of this country was clear, they did not promise to freeze the prey and declared it everywhere.”

The withdrawal of Russian aviation from Syria was also officially announced on March 14, although, as I already wrote above, and this was already a secret of the police.

The connection of these two events is quite obvious: Russia ceased to participate in the Syrian war for economic reasons. Iran will join the conspiracy in terms of oil production, from our point of view, was a form of compensation for military costs. Iran refused to pay the bills, and we refused to further participate in the war: trusted to the Iranians, but the deceived Putin, as an insulted Achilles, left the battlefield, retreating into his tent.

History as a farce

What tasks were actually set at secret meetings for a narrow circle, when Russia got into the Syrian war - this, apparently, will remain secret. It is only clear that Russian interests in Syria initially looked extremely muddy, if not sucked from a finger. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to determine how the declared goals were fulfilled to the beginning of the withdrawal of the Russian contingent from Syria.

But from the outside, the whole campaign looks like the Russian military - just medieval mercenaries. This gives a parody of a well -known story: when in 1521 the French king Francis did not find the first than to pay off the hired Swiss infantry, they calmly left positions, saying: Point d'argent, Point de Suisse! (No money - there are no Swiss!)

For a country claiming the status of superpower, the situation, to put it mildly, is ridiculous. Although understanding.

* “Islamic State” (IG, ISIS, Daish, “Daula”) - a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.

Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency, Alexander Tsvetkov/Kommersant