In anticipation of Troubles

The more alarming the current situation, the stronger our need to look into the future. The level of uncertainty in Russia has reached a certain peak, and it is quite natural to expect some changes in the near future. What are these changes and in which direction - no one knows. The future is not determined, to engage in long -term forecasting is an ungrateful business. Even if you approach this issue reasonably and with a strict scientific approach, the results will not be outstanding, since too many random factors affect the development of events.

But if you expand the forecasting scope and look at the problem widely, then you can find some trends that are most likely to repeat. Since the emergence of the Old Russian state, at the current moment in Russian history, one can observe a series of "getting up from the knees" and recession. The periods of fragmentation were regularly replaced by the union in the face of an external enemy, for which "Troubles of times" later came again. Successfully carried out reforms alternated with periods of the leadership of the "temporary workers", the reforms were followed by counter -reforms. From the point of view of organizational psychology, this is the standard dynamics of the development of society, especially if we take into account the Asian version of the formation of Russian statehood. If we take into account the classic study of Herth Hofsteus , then by many cuts, Russian public culture coincides, for example, with Chinese, with the exception of strategic vision. The Chinese more Russians are prone to long -term orientation towards the future, although according to other indicators (such as distance from power, individualism and the desire to avoid uncertainty) are very close to Russia.

Predicting the development of events in Russia, it can be expected that the next period of strengthening the country and well -being will be replaced by a period of fragmentation, when again “brother goes to the brother” and all this will be accompanied by a strong decline in the economy. In Western countries, unlike Asian, a mechanism of favorable development was formed in the absence of a single strong power center. In fact, this is another format of "Time of Time", where there is no decisive, predominant power among the social changes that determine the scheme of social changes. There is a discord and confrontation of clans, but there are fewer contradictions, issues are resolved as a result of coalition agreements. On the one hand, Western society is characterized by great individualism than Russian, and on the other, it is more willing to negotiate and find a mutually beneficial compromise.

It can be assumed that the current political situation will replace the period of fragmentation and troubles

In Russian society, such a potential is not so significant, in Russia there is less individualism and more cohesion, and this leads to more radical scenarios of the development of events: all as one stand under the banner of the leader to reflect an external threat, and when the threat falls, if it does not manage to resist (or the feeling of threat is temporarily absent), then the inability is manifested and the period of serious dissolution begins.

The fact that the cohesion of society and prosperity is incompatible is very entertaining. Here are scientific experiments: two groups of students had to perform exercises requiring coordinated joint actions. One group before completing the assignment listened to lectures about the money and stories of the success of rich people, and the other - a neutral lecture. As a result, in the first group, rivalry was primarily observed, and in the second - cohesion. This, perhaps, is so well known: if money appears, then friendship is ended. The Chinese emperor Zhu Gaochi (rules in 1424-1425), after entering the throne, ordered a powerful sea fleet to be burned. Historians believe that ships were sacrificed to the integrity of the Chinese Empire. Thanks to the development of navigation, there is a big difference in the well -being of the population of coastal regions and central regions of the country; If Zhu had not destroyed the fleet, then under the onslaught of the internal disagreements his empire could fall apart. The same examples can be found in Russian history. The rejection of NEP reforms or the dispossession of all the more or less wealthy peasants-all these were victims in the name of the unity of the nation.

It can be assumed in this way that the current political situation will replace the period of fragmentation and turmoil, which will continue until the issue of money disappears on its own, in connection with the noticeable impoverishment of society. Only after that the country will be able to rally in the face of a new call. It is good if this challenge is not a fight against a mythical opponent (which North Korea lives now), but social and economic reforms that will allow society to reach a new level of development and break a vicious circle of rapid enrichment and impoverishment.

Arya Gotsdanker is an Israeli business psychologist, changes management expert