The liberation of Palmyra could be a turning point in the war against ISIS: the location of the city opens the way for government forces to the capital of the caliphate, Raqqa. The offensive was made possible thanks to Russian aviation

Large colonnade in the historical part of the city of Palmyra (Photo: Valery Sharifulin/TASS)

The Syrian army, after several days of street fighting, had completely captured the city of Tadmor in Homs province by Sunday morning. Prior to this, for ten months, the city and the nearby ruins of ancient Palmyra were under the control of militants of the Islamic State (ISIS) banned in Russia. The liberation of Palmyra from Islamists could become one of the turning points in the civil war in Syria, which is now in its sixth year.

What does the capture of Palmyra mean for the war against ISIS?

For both the government of Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic State, Tadmor is an important strategic point. The city is located on the highway leading to the banks of the Euphrates, and from there to Raqqa, the unofficial capital of the caliphate. In addition, here is one of the six airports in Syria, which was used by government forces for military purposes before the city was captured by militants.

The city is located almost in the geographical center of Syria, at the center of the intersection of the main roads connecting the east and west of the country. The highways link the capital Damascus and Homs with the country's oil industry center Deir ez-Zor, part of which is still held by government forces besieged by Islamists. The relief in the Tadmor area also determines the importance of the settlement: the city itself is located in a depression, but around it there are heights from which vast areas are controlled, through which key roads pass. Finally, Palmyra is “a connecting hub between the production and transportation facilities of the entire Syrian gas industry, its processing facilities and gas-fired power plants,” wrote Carnegie Center expert Yezid Sayigh last summer. Trunk gas pipelines pass through the city, connecting processing in the west of the country with fields in the provinces of Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor.

Ruins after ISIS: what Palmyra looks like liberated from terrorists Photo gallery

Due to its location, Palmyra is the only possible logistics base for movement to the north - to Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa, and from ISIS - towards Damascus, says Nikolai Sukhov from the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “This is obviously a winning position, which is why such battles were fought over this point,” he explains.

Control of main roads facilitates the flow of goods into areas that have joined the truce and the political process. The command of the Syrian armed forces has already announced that it will use Tadmor as a springboard for a further offensive in these directions, Reuters reported on Monday , citing Syrian state media. In the same message, it was announced that after the liberation of nearby territories from militants, Palmyra airport was also opened.

The importance of Tadmor in the military operation is also evidenced by the fact that the IS militants, who took the city in May last year, had already captured almost half of the territory of Syria by the summer. With the loss of Tadmor and Palmyra, IS fighters suffered their worst defeat since the Islamic State was declared in 2013. With Palmyra, they “automatically lose control over the vast Syrian desert,” says Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Center for Monitoring Human Rights, cited by Die Welt. “There is a feeling that the existence of ISIS in Syria is coming to an end,” agrees Sukhov. In his opinion, defeat will affect the morale of the Islamists: “The image will deteriorate, the influx of new manpower from abroad will decrease, and desertion will increase.”

But the armed Syrian opposition, supported by the West, reacted warily to the successes of government troops. “I am afraid of one thing - a ceasefire will allow the Assad regime to absorb what remains of Syria, liberating territories under the control of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (a terrorist organization banned in Russia - RBC ), - Reuters quotes Riyad Nassan Agu, a member Higher Negotiating Committee of the Syrian Opposition. The ceasefire between Assad's troops and the opposition came into force on February 27, and since then the clashes between the parties have practically disappeared. ISIS is not a party to the peace talks, and the truce does not apply to its fighters.

What did Russia do to liberate Palmyra?

The two-week offensive of the government army near Palmyra was carried out with the support of a group of Russian Aerospace Forces. Before the first ground attack, on March 9, Russian aviation carried out a preparatory airstrike on ISIS positions, and in the following week, with the support of Russian planes and helicopters, Assad’s troops managed to cut off one of the terrorists’ supply routes - the highway going north to the village of Ittriya. In addition, during the massive two-pronged attack on the city, the Russian Aerospace Forces helped control ISIS supply and escape routes in the northern and eastern directions.

In total, since March 20, according to the Ministry of Defense, the Aerospace Forces group has conducted 121 combat missions in the Palmyra area and carried out more than 400 strikes on ISIS targets, killing up to 500 terrorists.

The special role of Russian attack helicopters was noted by the representative of the political department of the Syrian army, General Samir Suleiman. In an interview with Sputnik, he said that Russian reconnaissance assets and combat helicopters destroyed terrorist ambushes in the heights around Palmyra. Suleiman did not specify whether the Russian military participated in the ground operation. Earlier, the head of the Syrian campaign, Colonel General Alexander Dvornikov, said that ground units of special operations forces were operating in Syria. The tasks of these units include additional reconnaissance of objects, guidance of aircraft and “other special tasks.”

In addition to Russian aviation, Russian weapons transferred to the Syrian side were used in the attack on Palmyra. The government army deployed Uragan multiple launch rocket systems, Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems and 122mm D-30 howitzers.

It is likely that Russian aviation will continue to support government forces in further offensives. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Russian aircraft, which supported the current government offensive, have already launched missile and bomb attacks on ISIS targets along highways east of Tadmor.

What forces remain in Syria?

After President Vladimir Putin ordered on March 14 to withdraw part of the Russian Aerospace Forces group from Syria, most of the aircraft left the location of the Khmeimim airbase in the province of Latakia. According to Jane's Defense Weekly, the Russian group retained a core of Su-24 bombers and supplemented its existing fleet with several Mi-28N and Ka-52 attack helicopters. The magazine published a satellite image taken on March 20, five days after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria began. The picture clearly shows four Su-34 multirole fighters, three of the latest Su-35 generation “4++” fighters, three Su-30 fighters, ten Su-24 bombers and two Ka-52 helicopters. Experts note that this may be an incomplete composition of the group, since at this time some aircraft may be on combat missions.

In addition to the air group, the Pantsir S-1 air defense system, intended for short-range air and ground cover, and the S-400 long- and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system remained at the base. According to experts, 200–300 civilian personnel and about 2 thousand military personnel will maintain and operate the equipment available at the base.

What remains of Palmyra?

After the liberation of Palmyra, the question arose of restoring the UNESCO World Heritage sites destroyed by jihadists. The buildings that survived from antiquity were destroyed as part of the ISIS campaign to combat paganism and idolatry.

The first site blown up by ISIS was the temple of the Phoenician god Baal Shamin from the Roman Empire. Then the Temple of Bel, the funeral towers were destroyed, including the best preserved of them, the Tower of Elahbella (early 2nd century), and then the ancient Triumphal Arch (late 2nd century). The historical colonnade was also blown up - before the explosion, death row prisoners were tied to the columns.

Temple Baal-Shamina

The temple of the Phoenician god Baal-Shamin (2nd century AD) from the time of the Roman Empire became the first historical monument destroyed by ISIS militants (an organization banned in Russia) in Palmyra. Photos of the explosives planted in the temple, the moment of the explosion and its consequences were posted on social networks. UNESCO called the destruction of the temple a “war crime”

Temple of Bela

The temple of the local supreme god Bel was built in the 1st century BC. This is one of the oldest buildings in Palmyra. After the explosions carried out by ISIS militants in the summer of 2015, only the arch of the main entrance survived. The Director General of the Department of Antiquities and Museums of Syria, Maamoun Abdulkarim, proposed installing copies of this arch in Trafalgar Square in London and in Time Square in New York

Triumphal Arch

In October 2015, ISIS militants partially destroyed the Arc de Triomphe (2nd–3rd century AD) and the colonnade. Those sentenced to death were tied to the columns before the explosion. After the capture of Palmyra by government forces, the head of the Department of Antiquities and Museums of Syria, Maamoun Abdulkarim, announced plans to restore the Temple of Baal-Schamin, the Temple of Bel and the Arc de Triomphe

Now UNESCO is only assessing the situation related to cultural heritage sites in Palmyra, official representative of the UNESCO office in Beirut (monitoring the situation in Syria) Jad Merhi told RBC. In September 2015, the director general of the Syrian Department of Antiquities and Museums, Maamoun Abdulkarim, said that restoring Syrian cultural heritage sites destroyed by ISIS would cost “billions of dollars.”

According to UNESCO Director General Irina Bokova, UNESCO specialists will go to Palmyra as soon as possible from a security point of view. Together with the Syrian side, they must assess the damage caused to the monuments. “UNESCO will do everything in its power to document the destruction of Palmyra,” Bokova said.

According to Abdulkarim, work on the restoration of ancient monuments could begin within a year, but it could take about five years. Syrian experts will go to Palmyra today in order to photograph and document all the destruction, he said. 80% of Palmyra's heritage ruins are "in good condition", Abdulkarim told AFP.

On March 27, in a telephone conversation with Bokova, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured that representatives of the Russian military contingent would participate in demining ancient Palmyra. On Monday, March 28, General Director of the State Hermitage Mikhail Piotrovsky said that the Hermitage is ready to assist in the development of a project for the restoration of Syrian Palmyra - the museum will provide materials on the history of Palmyra and on Russian experience in the restoration of cultural objects. “We, as custodians of the heritage of Palmyra - we have a large Palmyra collection - will help to study the situation and make recommendations so that this monument becomes a monument of culture and victory over fanaticism, and not a “new-made” tourist attraction,” Piotrovsky told TASS .

With the participation of Georgy Makarenko

Photo sources: Global Look Press, AFP, Getty Images, REUTERS2016, Valery Sharifulin/TASS

Bridgehead in the desert: what does the liberation of Palmyra mean?