The main foreign policy challenges for Russia in 2016 will be Moscow’s relations with Ankara and Washington, as well as the threat of Russia’s involvement in the Sunni-Shiite conflict, experts from the Valdai Club believe

Activists of the All-Russian “National Liberation Movement” (NOM) during one of their actions (Photo: Evgeny Kurskov/TASS)

“Russia has always been under pressure from competing civilizations from the West and South, and this pressure is growing,” write the authors of the “International Threats 2016” report, the purpose of which is to “take an inventory of situations” that may pose a threat to Russia’s foreign policy interests in 2016. The document was prepared by program director of the Valdai Club Andrei Sushentsov and his colleagues on the Foreign Policy portal back in January, but will be submitted to the club’s discussion platform on Tuesday.

According to Deputy Director of the Center for Political Technologies Alexei Makarkin, within the framework of the Valdai Club, ideas are being tested and discussed that may be of interest to the expert community, but the club’s point of view is not official. The Valdai Club was created in 2004 and united Russian and Western foreign policy experts; since 2006, Vladimir Putin has traditionally met with its members.

Makarkin emphasized that even if about 30% of the proposals in the expert document are subsequently implemented , this can already be considered a good result.

Now challenges for Russian positions from the south are “dynamically developing Turkey, Iran and China”, which are “making plans for the Caucasus and Central Asia.” From the West, the threat is posed by the US policy, which is conducting a “multidimensional war” against Russia, the report says. Its goal is to weaken Russia and then force Moscow to become America’s partner in containing China, which, according to the authors, is the “main project of the 21st century” for the United States.

According to experts, to achieve this goal, the United States is trying inside the country to “create a feeling of hopelessness and the inevitability of collapse among the [Russian] population, and provoke dissatisfaction with the authorities.” In the external dimension, Washington allegedly wants to isolate Moscow by creating a “corral of pro-American regimes” around it.

Turkish threat and Sunni risk

One of the most serious risks for Russia in 2016, the authors believe, is a further deterioration in relations with Turkey. Moscow imposed a series of sanctions against Ankara after the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter in the skies over Syria at the end of November, allegedly violating Turkish airspace.

In the near future, experts say, there is a danger of “dizziness from success” in Syria, which could lead to a direct military clash between Moscow and Ankara. At the same time, the authors of the report believe, a scenario is possible in which Russia and Turkey will not enter into an open armed conflict, but will use space satellites, Internet infrastructure and communication systems as targets for sabotage.

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The main risk for Russia in the southern direction of foreign policy, according to the authors of the report, is the danger of the country being drawn into the Sunni-Shiite conflict on the side of Shiite Tehran, which is opposed by the Sunni states led by Saudi Arabia. The report emphasizes that additional risks are created by the fact that Russian Muslims belong to the Sunni branch of Islam. In addition, the involvement of Shiites and Sunnis in the conflict will complicate mutual understanding between Moscow and the Sunni opposition in Syria.

Terrorism at the borders

The report's authors emphasize that even victory over the Islamists in Syria will not lead to a complete victory over terrorism. There is a risk that jihadist terrorist groups will regroup and concentrate in one of the Central Asian republics. The report specifically points to the potential danger of developing negative trends in Tajikistan, where the country's authorities consider the main opposition force, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, to be terrorist. Tajikistan as the most exposed to the risks of political instability Previously, experts from Minchenko Consulting also named .

Experts especially emphasize that Russia now has reduced resources to support its Central Asian neighbors (in particular, the investment program for Kyrgyzstan has been reduced).

Ukraine is not worried

The escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine is not included in the list of priority threats. “The scenario of a new full-scale war in Donbass cannot be called the most likely,” the report states. According to its authors, Kyiv will be kept from resuming active hostilities by the position of its Western European partners in the “Normandy Four” - France and Germany.

At the same time, the authors believe, it is obvious that in the first half of 2016 there will be no settlement of the conflict or significant steps in this direction. The opposition in the Verkhovna Rada, experts believe, will not allow President Petro Poroshenko to carry out the law on elections in Donbass and the constitutional reform necessary to resolve the conflict.

Earlier, experts from the Center for Current Political Affairs, which is close to the Kremlin, also called the scenario of a long-term freezing of the conflict in Donbass the most likely.

"Playing away from your own goal"

Sanctions by Western countries against Russia in 2016, according to the authors of the report, will not be lifted - this will not happen due to the unresolved conflict in Donbass. At the same time, Russia, as noted in the report, is not yet able to effectively counteract them. Being obviously the weaker side in the confrontation with the United States, Russia should strive to “transfer the game to a field more distant from its goal.”

Within the framework of this strategy, a “turn to the east”, intensified interaction with the BRICS countries and military intervention in Syria are taking place. The authors of the report consider the Syrian operation to be the most effective and successful of the above series. In their opinion, Russia, thanks to its intervention, will maintain a friendly regime in Damascus, which will allow it to consolidate a naval base in the Mediterranean, and in the future, become a leading player in the Middle East, capable of conducting expeditionary military campaigns.

Valdai experts named external threats to Russia in 2016