The Ministry of Economic Development revised its forecast for 2016–2018 and made a forecast for 2019. According to the new forecast of the ministry, the growth of real incomes and real wages of the population will resume in 2017

Photo: Dmitry Rogulin/TASS

The new forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) for 2016–2018 and 2019, which was reviewed by the Vedomosti newspaper , provides for a gradual increase in oil prices from $40/barrel. this year to $50/barrel. in 2018 and 2019. The economy will emerge from the recession in 2017 at an oil price of $45/barrel, and at the same time the decline in key economic indicators will stop: wages, household incomes, investments, industry, the Ministry of Economic Development believes.

According to the new forecast, the budget deficit will decrease by 1 percentage point annually. and will become deficit-free at an oil price of $50/barrel. by 2019.

The Ministry of Economic Development assumes that household incomes will decrease by more than 8% in 2015–2016, will increase in 2017, but by 2020 will still remain below the 2014 level.

By the beginning of 2020, according to the new forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, inflation will slow down to 5%. The department does not agree with the estimates of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, according to which an inflation rate of 4% will be reached in 2017.

In the base forecast scenario, the economy for 2015–2018 will shrink by 0.5%, but in 2019, despite stagnant oil prices, growth will accelerate to 2.5%. The scale of the economic decline in 2016, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will be reduced to 0.3%.

Earlier in March, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Alexey Ulyukaev, speaking at Russian Business Week, said that the dynamics of the Russian economy can currently be assessed as “near zero” . According to the minister, markets are “gradually finding balance.” “If we return to commodities, it seems to us that this year the equilibrium will be around the $40 per barrel point,” Ulyukaev said. He also clarified that oil at $40 will be taken into account when adjusting the macroeconomic forecast and adjusting budget indicators.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicted an increase in real incomes of the population from 2017