Translated material
What will change Panama?
Alexander Baunov
Dmitry Butrin
Fedor Lukyanov
Ekaterina Shulman
Ilya Yashin
Ilya Yashin
politician
This is a bomb, of course. Whatever the Kremlin propagandists say there, no matter how they try to transfer the focus to other countries, of course, the key investigation concerns Russia. Now we have specific evidence that in recent years in Russia there has been a total fusion of business and government. And the fact of enriching Putin’s closest environment is connected precisely with the fact that he became the president - this is corruption. It is completely clear that when your friends become dollar billionaires after you come to power, this means that the entire Kremlin was rotten from corruption through and through.
Publications of the "Panama archive" will undoubtedly affect the actions of the Kremlin. I think that it is worth waiting for the attack on the "new newspaper", which took an active part in the investigation. Obviously, it will be under the blow. This power is very vindictive, it does not forgive such things and does not tolerate. Most likely, this will affect not only journalists, but also civil activists and opposition representatives.
It is worth waiting for the attack on the "New Gazeta", which took an active part in the investigation.
Publications will not be used as a formal occasion, but in this sense Putin is very similar to Lukashenko. As soon as he has problems with abroad, he begins to beat in his critics and opponents within the country. Lukashenko used this 10-15 years ago, Putin has been using similar tactics for the past few years.
If Putin, contrary to the Constitution, did not control all the branches of the authorities, undoubtedly, this would become the reason for the investigative proceedings, to form a question about impeachment in parliament or at least a parliamentary investigation. But all branches of the authorities are built in such a way as to defend the president, to burn him out. No one even tries to figure out the details of what was published. Although in any country where government institutions work normally, this, of course, would lead to investigations and resignations within the country.
Dmitry Butrin
publicist
A large domestic political effect of investigations about offshores cannot be expected. If you look at an uncomplicated look, we are talking about operations of the Bank "Russia". And it is difficult to restore the meaning of these operations on the documents that the investigators refer to. Personally, I could not. The documents that were shown to us are enough to say: his acquaintances, managers of the Rossiya Bank, said that his name and reputation was needed to carry out some banking operations, came to the rector of the St. Petersburg Conservatory. He calmly signed two papers with a power of attorney and calmly forgot about it. Well, periodically, he signs some other papers, the meaning of which is incomprehensible to him. The fact that the Bank "Russia" is conducting such operations is known. The fact that this is the personal money of the president, we can neither refute nor confirm.
If the files are not published, this means that the investigators play without access to the entire base in their hands.
I would make from this investigation the conclusion that the circle of president’s friends is somewhat wider than it was customary. For me, it was new what happened to Video International , but again not that big crime. As for the foreign policy consequences, it is somewhat more complicated. First of all, I sympathize with Sergey Roldugin. I think he could not imagine what scale he plays in the game. For him, it will be highly likely to begin problems with tour, problems with work. Perhaps new sanctions will follow against Russia as a whole. But again, the main thing in this situation is whether Panama files will be opened for the public. It is on this that the foreign policy effect will depend. If the files are not published, this is bad, it means that the investigators play without access to the entire base in their hands.
Fedor Lukyanov
publicist
We are dealing with the information campaign. I have no idea whether it is planned or not, but in fact this is a campaign. Surely there will be something else. Wikileaks gave such a model several years ago, I think this is not the last portion.
Whether this story will have specific legal consequences is hard to say. I would suggest that there is no goal to bring all this to trial, the most important thing is to create a certain atmosphere around specific people. This can be done regardless of how reasonable these or other accusations are. Then specific reasons will forget, and the sediment will remain.
As for the political consequences, I doubt that this will have some kind of effect. It so happened that now Russia plays a rather serious role in a number of important political processes - in Syria and in Ukraine. Important not only for us, but also for large world players. I think that somewhere in the subconscious, the theme of East Asia begins to arise among American politicians, because there Russia also has its own pressure levers.
Our idea of personal and commercial secrets will change. These are winning horizontal structures: a network against the state, diversity against unification.
Ekaterina Shulman
political scientist
We must stop concentrating on our village troubles. This publication is not about Putin. He is not only not the only one, he is not even the main character of this publication. This publication, firstly, about global corruption international. And secondly, this event as a whole shows what the horizontal network structure can achieve, the unification of professionals working together. This, one might say, is a dawn of a new era. We still vaguely see her and do not fully understand what it will be. But she will be different, and we live in her. Compared to this, what Peskov will say, who will react how and which website will be banned in Russia-this is not very important.
What do I mean? This is new transparency, transparency. Both citizens to each other, states to citizens and citizens to the state. Of course, this is such a big brother. On the other hand, this is the availability of information about what before there could be no information. Our idea of a personal secret, about a commercial secret will change. The second point is the winning horizontal structures: a network against the state, diversity against unification. Here we see the international alliance of people who do not owe each other, who simply collaborate and transform the political landscape. The harbinger was Wikileaks , but even within the framework of one state. Today we see a continuation in development, but more powerful and wider.
Most of all, Putin is afraid of external isolation, he is not afraid to lose inner popularity.
Alexander Baunov
publicist
After Panama, nothing will change, because no one was afraid. Peskov, like a good entertainer, went out and said: do not miss, attention, soon the nasty things will be told about us. This is a sign that they do not worry about this at all. And they worry about external isolation. Most of all, Putin is afraid of her, he is not afraid to lose his inner popularity. Western politicians are also sensitive people, suddenly they will not want to deal with a person who hid two billion. But it is unlike it. Then they will have to stop dealing with the Chinese and Poroshenko, who are on the same list. It all depends on what Western leaders will make further. For example, Obama will come out and say: here Putin stores two billion offshore - it will be unpleasant. And if politicians of such a caliber will not say this, well, what? You never know what journalists have written about Putin over the past 15 years.
Recorded Vladimir Gusev, Roman Dorofeev