New faces and old quarrels

On April 10, registration of candidates for the primaries of the democratic coalition ended. At the same time, the vote, originally scheduled for April 23–24, was postponed to the end of May for technical reasons. Whether the preliminary elections of the points will add to the Parnassus list before autumn voting to the Duma - the New Times sorted out

At the start of the campaign: the Democial Forum launches the Wave of Changes, Moscow, December 11, 2015. Photo: Yuri Martyanov/Kommersant

The informal association "Democratic Coalition" was created last spring. It included Parnassus, a “democratic choice”, the “Solidarity” movement, as well as the unregistered part of the progress of Alexei Navalny, the “Party of December 5” and the Libertarian Party of Russia. Thanks to the mandate of Boris Nemtsov in the Yaroslavl Regional Duma, Parnassus has the right to participate in federal elections without preliminary collection of signatures. So it is on the list of Parnas (and with the support of the party in single -mandate districts) that the winners of the primaries will go to the State Duma. True, the first three list will be formed in addition to the primaries, and the leader of Parnassus Mikhail Kasyanov will be headed. To participate in the primaries, it is necessary to enlist the support of one of the parties - the participants in the demo -analysis and pay for the registration fee of 20 thousand rubles. Money is needed to organize voting procedures.

Bad attention

So far, within the coalition itself, the project is evaluated carefully. On the site of the primaries in the section “Choose your candidate” - 57 people. The strongest candidates will fight for the nomination in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Inside the coalition, strong candidates with the chances of victory are considered people from the “Navalny List” (Navalny himself will not be able to run due to criminal records), his closest ally of the Fund for Combating Corruption (FBK) and the Party of Progress-George Alburov, Lyubov Sobol, Leonid Volkov, Nikolai Lyaskin and some others. Ilya Yashin, Andrei Pivovarov, Natalya Gryaznevich represent the Federal Political Council (FPS) Parnassus, and Pivovarov will also enjoy the support of Open Russia Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Also in the primaries, the ex-member of the Paul Parnas Politzas, Natalya Pelevin, a member of the political council of “Democratic choice” Vladimir Milov and professor-historian Andrei Zubov.

Vladimir Milov considers the primaries as a whole “an interesting experiment”. “I would not want to predict the results, but I am pleased that the“ demo ”has a strong team,” he emphasized in a conversation with NT . Moreover, Milov believes that the “demo” on the primaries “as a group of regional public opinion leaders” is the strongest party of all. He is sure that “the media -promoted leaders (Yashin, people from the Navalny team) a priori will have an advantage even regardless of their performance in the primaries,” but nevertheless the primaries themselves turned out to be a good platform. “The guys from our party were able to prove themselves, and they do it well,” Milov emphasized. It is disappointed that the media “they write little about this story, but the conversation about our media is a separate sad conversation,” he regrets.

“If less than 25-30 thousand vote, most likely, a decision will be made to draw up a list, ignoring the results of the primaries”

In turn, Andrei Pivovarov is sure: the primaries stimulate internal competition that the opposition is beneficial: “There is live competition, there are new faces ... In a conversation with NT , Pivovarov is also shared by the look“ from the inside ”: in addition to the public struggle in the opposition camp, there are already emerging groups of supporters, peculiar factions of the organizational or regional principle, conducting the struggle for their candidates. And this is also a sign of real political life and competition. In general, Pivovarov is optimistic: “Through the primaries, through confidence in candidates and list, I hope Parnassus will gain all -Russian support.”

However, the interlocutor of NT in the party Parnas on the basis of anonymity notes that the situation is actually "not very simple." The problem is not so much in a small number of candidates for the country, but so far the relatively few voters have registered on the “wave of change” website (unlike the primaries of the EP for voting in the preliminary elections of the demoralization, voters are required): “A week ago, 2500 voters were registered, although it was initially assumed that more than 100 thousand people should participate in the primaries. If less than 25-30 thousand vote, most likely, a decision will be made to draw up a list, ignoring the results of the primaries. With Navalny and other dealership partners will discuss the cancellation of the results, ”the source says. Another NT source, however, assures that as of April 7, over 6 thousand voters registered, but these are still many less expectations, and rumors about the possible cancellation of the results of the primaries really go. And the leader of the Party of Progress Alexei Navalny told NT that "the non -recognition of the primaries will make it impossible to find the party in the coalition."

Confusion deficit

Another conflict is associated with the difficulties in the "Democratic Choice" party. Some time ago, a scandal broke out in her: some of the party members accused the party leader Vladimir Milov of non -combination, as a result, Milov is now the Party Party in the Demorals and a member of its political council, although he left the party leader. At the same time, a prerequisite for participation in the primaries is the support of the nominee for one of the participants in the demo -analysis. The opponents of Milov Igor Drandin and Yaroslav Kolobkov cannot yet receive such support.

The Parnassus list will most likely be headed by Mikhail Kasyanov, Nizhny Novgorod, February 12, 2016

“The problem is simple. Our registration depends on Milov, who deceived the coalition, telling them that the “demo” supported the list of the party, which includes only his supporters. Among the supporters of Milov there is no me and my colleague Yaroslav Kolobkov. In fact, the party did not make any decision on the support of candidates at all. As a result, we paid for 20 thousand rubles, we sent a statement and have not been registered for more than a month: Milov says that the party does not support us, ”said Drandin NT , adding that Parnas’s leadership promised to solve the problem and register all candidates from a“ democratic choice ”. But they have not yet taken specific steps towards.

Milov has his own vision of the situation. “The party refused to support Drandin after what he arranged. We had a list of candidates approved by the party, back in December we transferred it to Parnasa, but he and Kolobkov decided to appear later. No party bodies agreed to give consent to their nomination, while half of the list of the Federal Political Council expressed against their support, that is, the decision of the FPS could not be made. ”

Also, according to Milov, Drandin and Kolobkov did not even formally contact the FPS, “apparently, realizing that they would not be supported”: “There were no such objections for a single other candidate in the party. We discussed this with colleagues in the coalition, said: well, our party just cannot decide on their support, you take, if you want. No other parties also wanted to support them. Who needs provocateurs, ”Milov sums up.

There are also changes in the leading structures of Parnassus: after the release of the movie “Kasyanov Day”, Natalya Pelevina said that the federal political council of the party voluntarily leaves.

Andrei Pivovarov believes that the primaries stimulate intra-party competition , St. Petersburg, March 14, 2016

Conflicts are planned not only inside the coalition, but also with opposition, who are not included in the coalition. FBK lawyer Lyubov Sobol, a participant in the primaries of the Demoralization, for example, announced that she would run for the Central District of Moscow. “I am going to go to the Central Administrative District, the most electoral attractive constituency for the opposition, from the registered party of Parnas, without collecting signatures,” Facebook announced Sable. - If other applicants from the opposition camp appear on this district, additional primaries of the democratic coalition will be arranged. I’m not afraid of competition and I will be glad to participate in such primaries. ”

The problem, however, was that earlier, the head of the human rights direction of Open Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Maria Baronova, announced his intention to run for this district. In a conversation with NT, Baronova confirmed her intention to run in any case: she does not participate in the primaries of the demo -abilities and goes to a self -nominated signature.

Without surprises

Experts note that although the idea of ​​primaries in itself is interesting, until it attracted the attention of a sufficient number of potential voters. But the main thing is that the sympathies of an active minority may not end up on the side of those who would have a chance to get the support of the majority. In general, so far the prospects of Parnassus are overcome by a 5 percent barrier of the none, they believe.

“Firstly, an administrative resource will work against them,” says political scientist Abbas Gallyamov. -Secondly, the vast majority of even those who are even dissatisfied with their lives are not ready to vote for an unsystematic opposition. Accusations of the sale of their homeland have done their job. ”

Natalia Pelevina is no longer a member of the Party Political Council

However, theoretically, one of the Parnasovsky single-mandate may be lucky in Moscow, the political scientist believes: “There are more opposition voters here, fans of Kiselevsky propaganda.” The main advantage of the opposition, explains the interlocutor of the magazine, is a flexible administration of their campaigns: “In this part, they beat the clumsy Moscow city hall as an excessive. In Moscow, everything will depend on the configuration: if a strong opposition will come to the district, cleaned under a weak united Russia, then he can win. ” But much depends on the Communists: “In their style of the campaign (communist) Klychkov and some of his colleagues, the methods of the operation of the opposition are resembled. Therefore, it will be important for oppositionists to be in the district where not only a unicorn, but also a communist will be weak. ”

“The primaries is a mutual topic: on the one hand, you can additionally mobilize supporters and select more promising candidates, on the other hand, the reverse process is possible, even in countries that have a huge experience of primaries,” thinks the vice-president of the Center for Political Technologies, Alexei Makarkin. It recalls the Kaluga primaries of Parnas, which was won by the candidate supported by the Internet, Andrei Zazakin, but the result was a serious conflict with the local party organization.

“Many supporters of the Democrats are disappointed and would like to somehow psychologically partially“ combine ”with the authorities, so as not to be in the“ perpendicular ”and the dominant public mood”

As for the current primaries of the coalition, they are on the information periphery, interest in them is small. “Many supporters of the Democrats are disappointed and would like to somehow psychologically partially“ combine ”with the authorities, so as not to be in the“ perpendicular ”and the dominant public mood. Dissent psychology has about 2-3% of the population. Plus, Parnassus will be difficult to nominate candidates with real chances of success. Ryzhkov and Gudkov - already with Yabloko, Navalny cannot run, ”Makarkin regards the demo abatition the chances of the Demoralization.

The head of the political expert group, Konstantin Kalachev, also argues in approximately the key: “Separate single -mandates have hypothetical chances. But the "Yablons" have more. But the composition of the first triple of Parnassus does not depend on the results of the primaries, no surprises are worth waiting here. And with the inertial course of the campaign, the chances of success are striving for zero. ”

Photo: Oleg Zolotov/TASS, Alexander Koryakov/Kommersant, Mikhail Tereshchenko/TASS