The barrel does not want to go up in price

April 17 for those who hoped for the growth of oil prices was a day of disappointment: at the summit of the largest oil-producing countries in Doha (Qatar), it was not possible to reach agreements on freezing oil production. The markets reacted instantly - the price of Brent crude at the opening of trading on the London Stock Exchange fell by 7% to $40.1 per barrel

According to the Russian Central Bank, the average price of a Russian barrel in the first three months of this year was only $32 against $52 a year earlier. Moreover, as Alexander Polonsky, deputy director of the bank's monetary policy department, predicts, if the price of oil starts to rise, it will be only by 2018, and even then only up to $40.

The situation for the domestic economy is dangerous, although the government prefers to call it not a crisis, but a "new reality." If, at an oil price of $50, the Central Bank needs to inject about 1.5 trillion rubles into the economy in order to make budgetary ends meet, then at $35, five trillion will have to be “printed additionally” even with reduced spending, and this is fraught with galloping inflation.

This may explain the frantic efforts of Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who joined his colleagues from Venezuela (where the economy is much worse) and several other countries in an attempt to negotiate the already mentioned “freeze”.

If, at an oil price of $50, the Central Bank needs to inject about 1.5 trillion rubles into the economy in order to make budgetary ends meet, then at $35, five trillion will have to be “printed additionally” even with reduced spending, and this is fraught with galloping inflation.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced that his country would not manipulate production to maintain prices. “Let the prices determine the market,” he stressed. Iran and Iraq also rejected the idea of ​​curbing production, announcing new plans to increase it. And most importantly, no one in the United States intends to play the Russian-Venezuelan games. American companies have the opportunity to quickly, within a couple of months, fill any niche in the oil market if it is vacated by other suppliers.

Novak has a chance to save the reputation of his department - an imaginary reputation, since the Ministry of Energy does not have any leverage to influence the production, consumption and export of oil and oil products from Russia. The reduction of oil volumes in Russia without any freezing is inevitable. Operators are rapidly depleting reserves of fields that have long been put into production and are unwilling to invest in the development of hard-to-recover oil, which will cost $50-80 per barrel to produce. And the share of such expensive and unprofitable oil in the remaining resources in the bowels exceeds 70% ... The upcoming reduction in production for natural reasons can be passed off as a deliberate "freeze".

On April 6, Reuters released the news: it turns out that the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation considers the range of $45–50 per barrel of Brent oil to be acceptable for Russia

It is these figures that Russian negotiators are counting on, hoping to ensure the agreement of the main oil-producing countries to freeze production at the level of January this year.