Isolation fee

On April 6, the World Bank issued a forecast for the Russian economy: the recession will continue in 2016, and the Reserve Fund may be exhausted by the end of the year

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, after a decline of 3.7% in 2015, the country's GDP in 2016 will fall by another 0.3%, but in 2017-2018 it will grow by an average of 1.8-1.9% in year. The World Bank has a different forecast: in 2016, a decline of 1.9%, and in 2017–1918, an average growth of 1.4–1.5%. And this forecast looks more plausible: in January-February (there are no March data yet), the economy, according to Andrey Klepach, chief economist at VEB, was falling at exactly the pace that the WB expects for the year - 1.9%.

The WB even warned that the Reserve Fund ($46 billion at the end of 2015) could run out by the end of 2016. True - and this scenario is hard to believe - the government would rather save on transfers to the population than spend reserve funds. So, in February, pensions were indexed by only 4% - significantly lower than last year's inflation.

While the economy is adapting to the low price of oil, the cheap ruble, the country's financial isolation and anti-sanctions, mainly through a decrease in real incomes of the population - last year they fell by almost 10%. According to all scenarios, the level of poverty will continue to grow (in 2015, the number of Russians with incomes below the subsistence level increased from 16.1 to 19.2 million people - 13.4% of the population). This is a record rate of "depletion" for 16 years. It is no coincidence that in March the government slightly lowered the subsistence minimum (now it is 9,452 rubles, which is very difficult to live on per month). For almost a year and a half, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), wages have been declining.

According to all scenarios, the level of poverty will continue to grow (in 2015, the number of Russians with incomes below the subsistence level increased from 16.1 to 19.2 million people - 13.4% of the population). This is the record rate of "depletion" in 16 years

According to all sociological surveys, the population felt that the economic crisis is serious, and changed their strategy. Now people are trying not to take loans, spending as little as possible, and fears for the future of the banking system are forcing them to gradually withdraw deposits from banks. Fearing the loss of a job, many try to build up savings for a rainy day. These behavioral attitudes are quite adequate, albeit very belated. But they themselves create conditions for stagnation. When everyone holds money, there is nowhere for the economy to grow. For several years now, business has reduced investment to a minimum due to the uncertainty of economic and political strategy. Bankers now consider unissued loans as "good loans".

The decline, gradually slowing down, turns into a stable, long-term stagnation. The recipes for overcoming it are well known - lowering administrative barriers, lifting anti-sanctions, reforming the courts and law enforcement agencies, correcting mistakes made in relations with neighbors ... And in general - start playing again according to the rules accepted all over the world.

The trouble is that the political leadership of Russia is not going to do anything similar. So there is absolutely nowhere to expect economic growth.