Siluanov: budget deficit can be up to four percent of GDP

The budget deficit in 2016 at the price of oil below $ 40 per barrel can be up to four percent of GDP. This was stated by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov at the Exchange Forum, Interfax reports .

The minister recalled that according to the results of 2015, the deficit amounted to 2.4 percent. “This year we expect worse,” Siluanov admitted. According to him, the task is to maintain a budget deficit at the level of three percent of GDP at a price of oil $ 40 per barrel. “If the price is lower, then up to four percent, but not five,” the minister said.

According to the new budget rule, the government will withdraw and send to the reserve fund all additional income that can be received in case of oil price increased, Siluanov said. "On the one hand, this will not allow the ruble strengthening, it will not allow the impact of changes in oil prices in negativity from the point of view of the growth of the economy, inflation, percentage rates. We obviously do not need such an increase in price raw materials," the minister emphasized. He called the price of more than $ 60 per barrel threshold.

"The most important factor affecting economic growth now is, of course, oil prices. Oil prices by 10 per barrel give 0.8-0.9 percent of economic growth. But do we need such an increase that is not so qualitative? The quality is poor in this growth, on the other hand, on the other hand, we again come to the lack of sustainable growth, and we need precisely the stability of growth from year to year, and gives rise to oil prices. Only a one -time leap, ”said Siluanov.

On March 16, Siluanova said that the reserve fund may be completely exhausted by 2017 , if its funds will go on repaying public debt ”in 2015 for the indicated purposes, the funds of the reserve fund in the amount of 2.6 trillion rubles were used. Upon maintaining the pace of use of this source of financing the federal budget, the Reserve Fund could be completely exhausted by 2017,” the Minister said.

The budget deficit for 2016 is predicted at the level of 2.4 trillion rubles, so the reserve fund funds go to finance budget expenditures, including the fulfillment of social obligations, Siluanov noted.

The Minister recalled that sovereign funds and state borrowings are the main sources of financing the budget deficit. "Preservation of funds is the key to wider possibilities for attracting the Russian Federation of borrowed resources on favorable conditions in the future, therefore, with a relatively calm situation in the economy and in financial markets, it is advisable to refrain from spending funds," the answer says.

The fact that the reserve fund can be “drunk” before the end of 2016, Siluanov stated in mid -January. Such a prospect, the official noted, is inevitable, "if we do not take other measures." The expenditure of reserves, according to Siluanov, is inevitable, since the price of oil fell significantly lower than the value based on which the budget is overflower. "Therefore, last year, and in this we will use our reserves - a pillow of safety - which were accumulated," the official said.