When the money becomes cheaper

On an excess of free rubles from banks, market expectations and “unsolved maps” of the Ministry of Finance

Oil prices exceeded $ 44 per barrel, returning to the levels of early December. The ruble exchange rate to the dollar has grown by 18%over the past two months, and the dollar for the first time since November costs 65.5 rubles on the exchange rate exchange in Moscow. An annual inflation in Russia decreased to almost two years ago, when the devaluation of the ruble was just beginning. At the same time, the money itself is by no means in a hurry - bank loans are barely changing. However, the markets have not yet received a clear signal from their main regulator . He still expresses concerns in terms of both oil prices and the upcoming state budget expenses. Nevertheless, the expert notes, banks in conditions and fallen profits, and at the same time an excess of rubles must somehow earn on their loans.

The key rate of the Central Bank of Russia (Central Bank), a landmark for most other interest rates in the economy, remains unchanged - 11% per annum - for eight months in a row . In August, when the Central Bank changed it for the last time, annual inflation was 15.8%, by the beginning of April it slowed down more than half - up to 7.3%.

All this “chain” clearly manifested itself in 2014-2015, when the ruble devaluation took place.

But even against this background, the Central Bank is clearly not enough for so far the weighty arguments in favor of a new reduction in the rate in the very near future, economists who we interviewed in Moscow believe. Whereas his previous fears are still fully preserved.

Vladimir Tikhomirov , chief economist of the BCS financial company:

- The Central Bank rate now exceeds the inflation rate by 3.7% at once - we have not seen such a gap for a long time. However, there are a number of factors that explain the “caution” of the Central Bank. Yes, oil prices have risen over the past month and a half, the ruble has strengthened, and the market begins to gradually unfold towards the expectations of lower inflation. But, on the other hand, if oil suddenly begins to get cheaper again, the ruble will follow it. And the Central Bank, judging by the latest statements by its leaders, is generally afraid of such a scenario.

Dmitry Savchenko , Chief Analyst of the Swedish Bank Nordea in Moscow:

- Although a sharp slowdown in inflation is explained in many respects with the effect of the “high base” of the corresponding months of last year , nevertheless, it, in itself, is certainly an argument in favor of reducing the key rate. On the other hand, a new argument arose - the uncertainty of budget policy. After all, the Central Bank, in fact, does not have all the information regarding the plans of the immediate actions of the Ministry of Finance - how many money will be inflated into the economy through the budget? At the latest meetings of the Central Bank, this argument, apparently, became the main against a decrease in the rate. When the Ministry of Finance reveals its cards and announces a budget deficit for the year - in fact, this means how much money will be additionally inflated into the economy, the Central Bank, I think, will be untied by the hands, and the Central Bank will go to reduce the key rate.

Vladimir Tikhomirov:

- In the current situation, a decrease in the rate may not have a significant effect - banks are not at all experiencing a lack of rubles . That is, banks have much more ruble liquidity than they can place. This is manifested, in particular, in the interbank market, where lending rates for several months remain below the Central Bank. And also, apparently, begins to reflect on the decisions of the commercial banks themselves regarding their own loan rates. They begin to gradually decline-because banks need to somehow earn money, even without regard to the actions of the Central Bank. Therefore, in my opinion, these factors - oil prices and a certain excess of ruble liquidity among banks - may play an important role if the central bank does not yet reduce the key rate.

The market begins to gradually unfold in the direction of expectations of lower inflation. But if oil suddenly begins to get cheaper again, the ruble will follow it.

To what extent does the current key rate of the Central Bank determine the actual bets on bank loans - to private individuals or companies? After all, they almost twice aside, judging by the performances of some participants in the “Exchange Forum” held on Tuesday in Moscow ...

Dmitry Savchenko:

- First of all, we should talk about it as a rate that forms a layout in the monetary market . In fact, the key rate regulates the cost of those funds that banks receive from the Central Bank, or, conversely, place it in its deposits in it. Accordingly, it greatly affects the entire money market, determining, including rates on loans to corporate borrowers or private individuals. Another very important point is inflationary expectations. If the Central Bank, relatively speaking, will convince the market that in two or three years inflation will reach the intended 4% per year, then the so -called “long” rates will automatically decrease - in fact, we are talking about what, according to the market, these bets will be in a few years? Actually, we observed this process in recent months: the market gradually “believed” that inflation in 2-3 years would be noticeably lower than the current one. This also manifested itself in the fact that the “long” rates on government bonds (OFZ) have noticeably decreased. Which, in turn, also means reducing interest rates on loans.

Vladimir Tikhomirov:

- In addition to the specific level of the key rate, as such, the central bank, if it reduces the rate, also addresses the country's financial system a powerful signal: that is, it believes that the threat of financial stability is reduced, and for the future the Central Bank expects, for example, a sustainable trend to reduce inflation. In this case, even those commercial banks, which, perhaps, have not yet been going to reduce bets on their loans, most likely follow the Central Bank. Therefore, in the current situation, when there are no lack of rubles in banks, it is the psychological effect of reducing the Central Bank rate that is more important than the fact that attracting ruble liquidity from the Central Bank will become a little cheaper for banks.

Boats on loans begin to gradually decline-because banks need to somehow make money on them, even without regard to the actions of the Central Bank.

In conditions when oil, as the main product of Russian exports and the main source of entry into the country of currency, has become a sharp thing, in your opinion, it is possible to say that for the central bank itself, in terms of the guidelines of its monetary policy, the dynamics of oil prices is even more important than the actual domestic inflation dynamics?

Dmitry Savchenko:

- Internal inflation one way or another depends on the cost of imports, which, in fact, is formed by the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which means oil prices . In addition, the fluctuations of oil prices themselves form to a large extent form expectations in relation to domestic prices. In this sense, of course, we can say that the price of oil is more significant for the central bank than prices in the domestic market.

Vladimir Tikhomirov:

- Undoubtedly, the price of oil determines - through the ruble - the ruble value of imports to Russia. Moreover, imports not only of finished products, but also of various components or raw materials that are used in domestic production. All this “chain” clearly manifested itself in 2014-2015, when the ruble devaluation took place. During the crisis periods, it plays a particularly decisive role ...

Therefore, in the current situation, when there are no lack of rubles in banks, it is the psychological effect of reducing the Central Bank rate that is more important than the fact that attracting ruble liquidity from the Central Bank will become a little cheaper for banks.

In the statistics of the general payment balance of Russia, this week, the Central Bank pays special attention to the fact that in the first quarter, Russian exports were reduced by more than a third to the level of the first three months of the last year. At the same time, the recent pace of import of imports into the country has significantly slowed down. In principle, both of them - the decline in exports with the relative stabilization of imports - is factors of additional pressure on the ruble towards its weakening. But can they noticeably affect the closest decisions of the Central Bank at rates?

Dmitry Savchenko:

- The dynamics of export-import is very volatile for a year. Therefore, to say that these indicators of the first quarter will somehow affect the policy of the Central Bank or the ruble exchange rate is still early. Indeed, the rate of import restoration at the beginning of the year was ahead of the rate of export restoration. However, I am almost sure that against the background of the current dynamics of oil prices, these indicators will be very soon equal, after which the export is somehow ahead of the import.

Vladimir Tikhomirov:

- The last statistics of the payment balance, indeed, does not cause much optimism. But this is only at first glance. Yes, a decrease in exports turned out to be noticeably greater than a decrease in imports, but it is necessary to take into account seasonal specifics. The first quarter is traditionally the lowest period of demand for the main goods of Russian exports during the year. Therefore, data for January-March are not very indicative for annual dynamics in general. In the first quarter, the average price of Russian oil Urals was lower than $ 32 per barrel - the last time this was in 2004! And it is not surprising that the volumes of exports expressed in dollars fell significantly. But the positive here, in my opinion, is precisely import. I regard the slowdown in the pace of his fall as a sign that the internal demand in the country, which has fallen sharply in 2015, begins to stabilize. It is possible to talk about his full turn towards growth, of course, prematurely, but it is possible that this year we will see such a turn. Therefore, in general, in my opinion, this statistics of great influence on the closest decisions of the Central Bank will not have at its rates . Especially, given significantly, oil prices, in relation to the average levels of the first quarter.

The next meeting of the Board of Bank of Russia, at which interest rates will be discussed, are scheduled for April 29.