Adequacy test, or why Kudrin will not help

What is not enough for our economy for growth? Cheap money? Infrastructure development? Investment in education? Market protection or greater openness? Public discourse revived against the backdrop of the crisis and approaching elections. In support of each idea, convincing theoretical arguments and experience of other countries are given.

There is another approach - Growth Diagnostic , proposed by economist Denis Rodrick about ten years ago. It resembles a clinical approach in medicine, when not deviations from absolute norms are important, but a general clinical picture of a particular patient and changes regarding his own healthy state. Rodrik suggests (I am slightly simplifying his model) that the general reason for weak growth is the insufficient level of entrepreneurial activity and investment. And the lack of investment can be caused either by a shortage of money, or a deficiency of investment capabilities, or high risks.

The money deficit will be observed when the economy is not consistent and there is no access to external borrowing, and also when the country's financial market is ineffective and the money does not reach business projects. The effectiveness of projects is determined by competitive advantages and weaknesses in the economy: “fools” (labor resources), “roads” (geography and infrastructure), access to technologies, and the presence of natural rents. Risk is the likelihood that the investor will not be able to maintain the results of his investments. Someone can steal, take, take in the form of bribes, taxes or monopoly rents. Or the project can simply be washed away by a wave of macroeconomic, social or political instability.

To figure out what really limits growth, another famous economist, Ricardo Haussman , offers several simple tests. Is the price of the estimated deficit grow? Are surrogates and alternatives appear? Does the economy react to a change in the scarce parameter? In addition, those who are most effective in the use of a scarce resource should prevail in the economy. For example, camels that consume water and few hippos that need water are in abundance prevail in the Sahara. So, in the sugar, probably, there is not enough water.

The last test is just talking to market participants. In general, everything is like in the late USSR: a deficit is a line, a black market with a triple price and popular jokes.

Money deficit

Let's try to test the widespread hypothesis that our economy does not have enough money. If the level of savings is a deficiency, then we must observe high rates for deposits. With 13% of inflation for 2015 and the expected 8% in this, deposit rates account for 8% to 11%. That is, the real rate is zero +/- 2%. At the same time, the volume of ruble deposits grew in 2015 by a quarter. The possibility of external borrowings is preserved, despite sanctions. The profitability of Russian currency bonds is only 3-4%. In March, Gazprom placed Eurobonds at a price guaranteeing yield below 3.5%. Thus, neither the level of savings, nor the availability of external borrowings are a narrow place.

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