Space Frontier: from Gagarin to Ilon Mask

Guest Radio Liberty - Ivan Moiseev, head of the Institute of Space Policy

Sergey Medvedev: In these April weeks, one of the main topics is astronautics. Here and 55 years of flight of Yuri Gagarin, manned by the development of the cosmos, here and a number of breakthroughs that happened in the last few weeks: Ilon Musk finally put his SpaceX missile on the platform in the sea, and there was a completely fantastic announcement of Stephen Hawking and Yuri Milner that they were going to launch the probes for alpha Centaurus, and they will travel at a speed of a year to a speed to a twentie Speed of light. We called Ivan Moiseev , the head of the Space Policy Institute , to talk about space.

I want to start with traditional alarmism, because it is very often brought to hear how in the famous film: “Chef, the mustache disappeared” - the “Angara missile” is outdated, all the money was stolen at the East Cosmodrome, “protons” fall into the space cabman, and Musk has already planted a rocket in the sea. ” Is everything really so sad?

Ivan Moiseev: close to that. Everything is not very cool. We hit the astronautics in a protracted sluggish crisis, the acute phases of which are replaced by stagnant. This crisis began in 1965 with a simple thing. When you look at the astronautics, you need to compare with something-for us it is natural to compare with the United States. If you look at the schedule, it is clearly shown that in 1965 they reduce the frequency of launches due to the fact that they improved their satellites, increased their effectiveness, increased the time of activity - respectively, they needed much less. We continued to launch more and more heavy missiles with short -lived ineffective companions.

The Angara missile is outdated, all the money was stolen on the eastern cosmodrome, the “protons” fall, Russia turned into a space cab, and Musk has already put a missile in the sea

Sergey Medvedev: They took in quantity, not in quality.

Ivan Moiseev: This continued until the mid-70s. During this time, the quality of Western satellites, mostly American, began to dozens of our companions ten times, that is, they did what we had to do with one rocket. This is the first part of the crisis.

Then there was a crisis associated with Buran ,-this is 1975-85. “Buran” was neither military nor civilian, it was made by a strong -willed decision from above, from the Politburo.

Sergey Medvedev: A purely image project?

Ivan Moiseev: No, they were just scared, they saw that the Americans had made a “shuttle”, someone lied to them that the “shuttle” could be used for military purposes as a bomber. Then there was an idea of parity, and they decided to do exactly the same. The military sharply objected, civil designers too. But then Dmitry Ustinov at the last decisive meeting said: "Well, nothing will work out, but we will get technology and development." And this “Buran” in ten years pulled all the space resources from all other programs, including the development of technology itself, and ended with nothing, because “Buran” was done, but “Buran” is a transport system, it needs useful loads, and there wasn’t enough money for the useful loads. So he made one flight and ended on that. And about the technology - they made the book "600 technologies" Buran ", but not one of these technologies has gone into business.

Sergey Medvedev: missiles that fly (not only former Soviet ones, not only in Russia, but also in the United States), are quite old technologies, 40-50 years ago: "Union", "shuttle", "proton", "titanium".

We hit the astronautics in a protracted sluggish crisis, the acute phases of which are replaced by stagnant

Ivan Moiseev: Old missiles, but they are updated. The fact is that they are a purpose, they cannot be used anywhere else. If there are missile technologies, then they are only missile. This applies to defense, space and civilian technologies. There is such a delusion, conscious or not conscious: we will do - there will be technologies. In fact, technology is a single production, and they are very expensive. That is, if gold is better than aluminum, they will put gold.

Sergey Medvedev: Does the cost of delivery of goods are reduced over the years or remains the same?

Ivan Moiseev: It is reduced, but insignificant.

Sergey Medvedev: 60 years of the cosmic era passed, and almost the same cost of delivering a ton of cargo to orbit. Why is there no progress?

Ivan Moiseev: Again, a single production. If there were mass production, then, respectively ... there is no conveyor, there is no stream, it is a manual assembly. The most correct solution today is Musk: not that he uses twice, but that he went along the path unusual for the rocket launchers. He decided not to stretch out of the engine everything that can be pulled out - this is our path, the maximum possible - but went according to the criterion of the effective cost: let the engine be simple, ineffective, but cheap in development, and they can be done a lot.

Sergey Medvedev: Here, perhaps, for the first time, a private trader came up with his commercial logic, and you can expect some kind of cost.

Ivan Moiseev: The effectiveness of the criterion of value in the States appeared in the 60s, we have closer to the 90s, but it was used only in theory. The brain of the designer of missile technology and satellites has always been aimed at increasing efficiency, regardless of the cost of development. This, in particular, is due to the fact that budget money is not considered.

Sergey Medvedev: Musk, as I understand it, is NASA contractor, he will make missiles that will fly to the ISS.

Ivan Moiseev: Musk is NASA Creat, in fact they created it. There were two large missile companies in the States, they were monopolists, in addition, they also united in something like a cartel and, of course, began to raise prices. Then NASA, realizing what was happening, went to the government, received very solid money and announced a competition for the one who will make other missiles. Several companies (Musk is the most famous) began to make their missiles, and they get it better than that of space veterans.

A private trader came with his criteria for commercial efficiency, and a new era began

Sergey Medvedev: Is it a space scream: a private trader came with his criteria for commercial efficiency, and a new era began?

Ivan Moiseev: Not so sharp, but significant, especially for the economy of space activity.

Sergey Medvedev: Do you need a person in space or can I do with unmanned ships? Satellites are needed, they provide GPS, look for herring jambs. He threw a companion into orbit - and calm. Why have people have been launched for 55 years? How it was not possible to reduce the cost of a ton of cargo in orbit, just as few people in orbit, a maximum of 13 people flew in space, and no space cities appeared over 55 years.

Ivan Moiseev

Ivan Moiseev: The entire astronautics (and it is large) can be clearly divided into two parts - applied cosmonautics and fundamental cosmonautics. Applied cosmonautics are all GPS communications satellites, remote probing land, defense, all that is necessary and can be used now. Such a project is easily calculated, profitable or disadvantageous - you can, of course, be mistaken, but everything is clear. And the second part of the projects is a manned cosmonautics, the study of planets automatic devices, space telescopes, and these things never pay off, and they are always expensive.

The decision whether to do or not to do such a project is always a decision of the state leadership, which somehow reflects the desire of its people. And the desire is simple: either curiosity, a fundamental scientific study, or the desire to expand the habitats of at least a person, even a machine gun - there is something irrational, characteristic of a person from his very appearance in the world.

Sergey Medvedev: Space as the last frontier, as the front edge ... From this point of view, those projects that have been declared in recent years according to Mars, at the International Space Station, are planning some fundamentally new horizons for the human development of space?

Mask is NASA creatures, in fact, they created it

Ivan Moiseev: The ISS is a certain feature, the last line of research close to the near -Earth orbit. She is running out, from the point of view of the new one, the experiment mainly repeats what we did on the "world". The next station should already be of a different nature, with other goals, no longer scientific.

As for Mars, Mars is very effectively examined by automatic machines. Talking that you can fly to Mars is a great exaggeration. Previously, no one will fly, but I doubt that they will fly after. There are too serious questions there. To send a person to Mars, if only in order to stick a flag, you need to build such an orbital station as the ISS. There should be new engines, you need to solve the problem with radiation, there are problems with reliability, supply problems - and all this in order to stick the flag. We need the same space industry as it is now, only for this task. They sent someone to Mars, stuck the flag, and then what, where to put this industry?

Sergey Medvedev: In this regard, the moon can also serve as an example. How much enthusiasm about the moon was - so what? The Americans flew, $ 120 billion was spent ...

Ivan Moiseev: The tasks were purely political, they made a breakthrough. They loaded a huge scientific program on them, they studied the moon very well. This ended. The same thing will happen to Mars if we fly there now. A rational meaning will appear to the moon in 10-20 years, but not in order to explore it, but in order to use it.

Sergey Medvedev: How to use? Minerals, organize some kind of transport?

There is nothing material in space that should be taken to Earth

Ivan Moiseev: There is nothing material in space that it would be worth taking to the ground that would pay for itself: even gold, even diamonds, will still cost more. There is no material in space, just substances. The substance is necessary as fuel, as building material, as protection against radiation. It is very expensive to carry it from the ground, a rocket is an extremely ineffective tool. And the closest such point where you can get a substance (no matter what, at least simple sand) is the Moon. Therefore, if you look at the further development of astronautics, then the moon becomes the next industrial line.

Sergey Medvedev: a resource base for the development of long -range space.

Ivan Moiseev: Do not carry it to Earth, namely to use it in space.

Sergey Medvedev: Are ecologists not mind?

Ivan Moiseev: Ecologists always object.

Sergey Medvedev: Probably, here we must look philosophically - where, in fact, the limits of human intervention.

Ivan Moiseev: We have too high an idea of our capabilities. Environmentalists say that we have put up the land, so they do not leave the city. They would leave the city - there was no person’s leg.

Sergey Medvedev: This is a controversial issue, because the cities are small territories.

Ivan Moiseev: There are such places (I myself come from such a town), where chemical plants are from four side of the world. There are work ecologists. Or, say, in the same Moscow where cars have ruined the atmosphere great. And if you take the land entirely on a planetary scale, take some jungle, Antarctica ...

Sergey Medvedev: The city was put on the Antarctica of the city, an ozone hole hangs there.

The good name was in the newspaper "Trinity Option" - "Hawking and Milner Two in Physics"

Ivan Moiseev: Ecologists need to take care of a planetary scale, but about the points of increased concentration, where people live.

Sergey Medvedev: Ivan Mikhailovich, how to regard the latest statements by Hawking and Milner that the tiny nano-chips, nano-computer will be launched, will disperse them with a sunny wind to a third of the speed of light, and will they fly to the alpha centaur? This is another project, manovschina, a dream, or is it a very real thing that can really concentrate the resources of mankind?

Ivan Moiseev: The good name was yesterday in the newspaper "Trinity Option" - "Hawking and Milner Two in Physics". There are four or five components, each of which is completely impossible, but if they are folded, then it will turn out. First: a laser with a power of one hundred gigavatts is the power of, say, the entire energy system of the Russian Federation. And we generally have the most achieved value - approximately 50 gigavatts of continuous radiation ... They plan to put it on the ground, it is not good on Earth - the atmosphere will behed everything out, we must take it into space.

Firstly, the laser itself cannot be done, and secondly, there is no way to get energy to any industry. If the power of the laser is one hundred gigavatts, then you need to receive a thousand gigavatt energy for it. Continuous impossibility ...

The person will not stop. Not as fast as science fiction writers write about it, but there will still be a forward movement

Then they say that all this energy should be thrown into a sail with an area of ten meters. It instantly evaporates at the speed of light. This is impossible. The overloads are huge, they do not make such microcircuits. One cannot be folded, the other is impossible, the third is impossible ... and 20 years to fly. This is an exposition under galactic radiation, under a decent pressure of the raising protons of interstellar medium. No microcircuit can withstand this, it must be protected. And to protect - this mass again goes to the laser ... You can tell, you can draw, they even removed the cartoon for one minute ... But there is no opportunity to do it.

Sergey Medvedev: If you look critically, then only the near cosmos has been mastered - at the removal of one tenth radius of the Earth, and no one except probes in the far cosmos. Does it make sense to master distant space?

Ivan Moiseev: I don’t know about the meaning, but the fact that he will be mastered is definitely, because a person will not stop. Not as fast as science fiction writers write about it, but there will still be a forward movement.

What can be built space settlements

We talked about the moon, they say that you can fly to Mars, colonize - this is all impossible. What is possible is to build space settlements, and this is a worked out, designed thing. Naturally, this will take decades, centuries. In the 70s there was such a professor, he offered huge cylinders of kilometer diameter just for life. In such settlements, life is more comfortable than on Earth, because there you can change the strength of gravity to their tastes or needs - from zero to more than ours.

Sergey Medvedev: Rotating cylinders that create gravity?

Ivan Moiseev: Yes. Such cylinders will be built first as hotels for relaxation. This work has already begun, just attached to the ISS one of the prototypes of such an inflatable hotel. But, one way or another, it is clear why this is done - for the comfort of life. Fiction describes that medical institutions will work in zero gravity, if necessary, a reduced center of gravity. It is just the material from the moon ...

Thus, these settlements will grow because the need exists, and in parallel the research of the solar system will be conducted (this is already about the centuries). A thermonuclear engine and a sufficient supply of fuel can be attached to such a cylinder - this is also calculated. Then somewhere in a hundred or two years you can get to the nearest stars.

Now many planets are open, you can choose a good planet

Now many planets are open, you can choose a good planet. And even if there are no good planets nearby, then anyway, if we live in cylinders, in space settlements, then only material needs.

Sergey Medvedev: A planet similar to Earth ... That is, within the travel limits of "a hundred years" there is some kind of set of planets?

Ivan Moiseev: Most likely. It seems to me so - maybe I'm a big optimist. Even in the nearest alpha of the Centaurus, the planets have already been discovered, and since we see not all the planets, but only a very small part of them, it may well be suitable ...

This does not end with this. If you fly there, move to another star, and then to the next one, evaluating the speeds that are achievable with our technologies, without inventing anything new, then we can master our entire galaxy in about ten million years. Man has existed for a million years, dinosaurs existed 60 million years, so this is a comparable path, but as a result - the whole galaxy. The galaxy is a very big thing.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, if you take the long goals of a person to master the cosmos, then this is the colonization of the galaxy?

We can master our entire galaxy in about ten million years

Ivan Moiseev: Moreover, this is not because someone ordered, set such a task, but because it happens naturally, but not as fast as science fiction writers write.

Sergey Medvedev: Is it only on the basis of new technological breakthroughs or already on the basis of existing technologies, just a matter of time?

Ivan Moiseev: We call it foresaw technologies. The simplest, the only thing is necessary is thermonuclear synthesis. It has not yet been achieved. But those attitudes that are prototypes of the engines are in the United States, is built and we have the same more powerful. Billions of dollars are invested in these installations. There is no doubt that we will achieve thermonuclear synthesis. Если разрезать пополам эту установку, то это уже два двигателя, остается их только усовершенствовать, довести до космических требований.

Сергей Медведев: То есть космос вы рассматриваете как среду обитания? А как ресурс – можно каким-то образом добывать из космоса энергию для Земли?

Иван Моисеев: Если у нас будет термоядерный синтез, то нам невыгодно добывать энергию из космоса, она в океане, ее можно добывать просто из воды. А мы сейчас подошли очень близко к этому.

Сергей Медведев: Еще из целей человечества – защита Земли от астероидов, от климатических и космических катастроф?

Защита от астероидов на сегодняшнем этапе практически невозможна

Иван Моисеев: Защита от астероидов на сегодняшнем этапе практически невозможна. У американцев существует программа наблюдения, поиска астероидов, опасных для планеты Земля. Это все, что мы можем сделать – заранее предупредить. Причем, чем раньше мы обнаружим астероид, который летит на Землю, тем больше у нас возможностей сбить его с дороги. Зачастую предлагают защиту типа нашей ПВО – она невозможна. Если взять всю обычную ПВО страны, все собрать, вывести в космос, то она закроет только доли процентов от того, что необходимо. Если астероид летит из неизвестного направления, быстрый и невидимый, то нужны огромные радиолокационные мощности, чтобы его засечь, то есть такой защиты, как защита от самолетов, создать невозможно. Если мы будем продолжать работу просто по исследованиям астероидов, то, в конце концов, окажется, что маленькие астероиды нам не страшны, а все большие мы будем знать. И тогда, уже зная, какой астероид откуда угрожает, можно послать к нему любой аппарат. Есть много вариантов.

Сергей Медведев: У России есть шанс в XXI веке остаться великой космической державой, или там уже частники типа Маска, Индия с Китаем наступают на пятки, и эра России как пионера космоса остается в ХХ веке?

Иван Моисеев: Есть шанс именно потому, что нам наступают на пятки. Сейчас наша космическая отрасль находится в стадии реорганизации, и все будет зависеть от ближайших 50 лет. Если мы справимся с проблемами, которые реально стоят перед нашей космической отраслью, то вполне можем конкурировать даже с Соединенными Штатами, потому что у нас есть достаточные ресурсы для космических исследований.