How they leave

Stalin rules 31 years. Brezhnev - 18 years. Putin is already almost 17, if you consider it from the day of his appointment to the Prime Minister of Russia and the successor of Yeltsin. During my long life, I happened to observe (as an ordinary politicized layman - a teenager, adult and elderly) the death of each of them. Personal impressions were supplemented by reading memoir and historical literature. Very different people and different circumstances. But all three deaths are lined up in a certain semantic triple of long farewell to the Mother Communist Age (1917–2017). The tragedy of communism, his farce and his postmodern absurdity.

Over a hundred years, the great villains of the revolution (Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin) first turned into ridiculous helpless elders (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko), and then, sprinkled with a lively water of nomenclature privatization, turned around the youthful sexy oil industry with hockey clubs (Putin, Rotenberg, Timchenko). These purely specific boys are the true heirs of October, the last generation of its leaders, the natural and inevitable result of the evolution of the "new class". Life after death was a success.

These are tens of millions of victims of a centenary experiment (Luzers, in their terminology) inherited the ground. They have nothing more to wish. For them, the personal Fukuyamov end of the story came. They have no and cannot have a project of the future. They are already in eternity. How, it turns out, Svidrigailov was right when he said that eternity could turn out to be a village, smoked bath with swollen spiders crawling in the corners! In our case, the veterans of the Dresden residency, the cooperative "Lake" and their "liberal" staff that make up the loyal reports on the gracious ten -year decline. The collapsed black hole of Russian history. In the coming years-and maybe months-after the political death of the Third Avatar, we will find out whether this hole has absorbed Russia forever or it still has a chance to break out of it with a desperate effort. And each time-in 1953, in 1982, in 2016-the approaching death of the Sacred Pharaoh was the first to anticipate and came to exciting excitement of a flock of close associates, eager to intercept power.

The winter of 1952 was generally one of the most dramatic periods in the Russian, and perhaps world history. The leader, which fell into madness, conceived the Holocaust on the USSR, a new merciless cleaning of the nomenclature and the Third World War. But weakening by virtue of age a grip over the special services, he brought his death. In 1982, he himself, already located at the coffin door, but still connected to the life -supporting equipment, chief of the KGB Andropov, began to intrigue against the murdered Brezhnev. The heavy and prolonged political death of the Third Avatar began on February 27, 2015 on the night of the forces of special operations with a ritual murder near the Red Square of the opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Not because this was his first serious crime. And because it served as a signal for the first serious performance against him a significant part of the special services.

The Chekists arrested the Kadyrovsky militants, the direct performers of the crime, and tried to advance up the chain of organizers and customers, at least up to Kadyrov, not because the ashes of the murdered pounded in their hearts. And because they decided to take advantage of this murder for a detailed attack on the Putin’s “Kadyr project”, which were extremely unhappy with the very beginning, believing that he had deprived them of “victory” in Chechnya.

The Kadyrov Project has existed for more than a decade. Kadyrov-Father, the security forces, most likely banged on the rostrum on the Victory Day of 2005. But why right now they were bolder and decided to leave Putin an open and public challenge? And because at the top of the authorities they already know well what the happy telepousists who are talking about the great geopolitical victories that rising from the knees of Russia are not yet aware of what. Putin is still swimming daily in the pool, but he is already stinking from him by a political death. And the jackals feel great.

Authoritarian personalist regimes can have a lot. Skillfully combining Orwell and Haxlian manipulative technologies, they are able to maintain “political stability” in their isolated areas for quite some time, which smoothly turn into the necrosis of society. But the dictatorship cannot survive a clear foreign policy (no matter what nature is military, economic, ideological, moral). Such a defeat automatically desacrates the first person, destroys the structurally forming myth about the infallibility of the leader and the project as a whole. The ruthless logic of systems related in spirit is triggered by criminal communities. The omitted groin is no longer a plowman.

So the Putin regime could run on his crooked legs some kind of distance, every additional year of its existence irreversibly destroying the chances of the future of Russia. If it were not for his Ukrainian disaster. It is impossible not to recall in this connection the insightful remark of Andrei Amalric, made about half a century ago: “Why all internal decrepitude connects with extreme foreign policy ambitiousness, it is difficult for me to answer. Maybe in external crises they seek to get out of internal contradictions. Maybe, on the contrary, the ease with which all internal resistance is suppressed, creates the illusion of omnipotence. Maybe it can be arising from The need to have an external enemy creates such an inertia that it is impossible to stop, especially since each totalitarian regime is decrepit, without noticing this. ”

Many of the clover already, apparently, understand: their train is in fire and they have nowhere else to run

The fatal mistake of the Putin regime was not so much the annexation of Crimea itself as its presentation by Urbi et Orbi in Putin's famous speech on March 18, 2014 and its further performances as the first step in the implementation of the neo -imperial concept of the "Russian world". Initially, Putin had a specific pragmatic task - to block the European vector of the development of Ukraine, in no case allow this country to break out of the Eurasian network of criminal Pahanats, choosing a modern model of economic and political competition. Until March 18, Putin did not think about the historical mission of the collector of the lands of Russians, but soon he became a hostage to his speeches published in a series of speeches and an interview with the myth of the “Russian world”.

The romantic reboot of the system -forming myth was fatal, it demanded dynamics, paintings of a continuously expanding universe. Statics, any hint of retreat is deadly for the dictator, give rise to a terrible suspicion among the hottest supporters "The king is not real!" Therefore, the purpose of expansion was immediately outlined after Crimea - Novorossiya, the original Russian lands, illegally transferred to Ukraine by the Jewish Bolsheviks, God is a judge, after the 1917 revolution. But the Russians in Ukraine, for the most part, rejected the ideas of "New Russia" and "Russian World", supported the anti -Criminal revolution and showed themselves by the patriots of the Ukrainian state. Putin’s reign began by the war unleashed by Yeltsin’s circle, to bring his protege to power. Putin’s reign ends with the war, which he untied himself to stay in power and make it lifelong. He lost both wars differently, but equally shamefully. All air spacing exercises in Syria are just a miserable attempt to powder the fundamental defeat in Ukraine with a continuation of a fake television banquet.

In such situations, law enforcement clans are standardly moving from the struggle for influence on the leader to the struggle for power positions after the leader. It is the escalation of this process that we observe in recent months and especially in recent weeks. The pace of events is growing. In my previous text for Radio Freedom, I recorded a chronicle of events and the current state of the battle of the Kremlin thrones on April 5. Here is a landscape: the attempt of Putin and Bastrykin to close the investigation of the murder of Nemtsov with a ridiculous appointment by the organizer and customer of a fugitive driver Mukhudinov. In response, the sensational increase by security forces by the level of confrontation, draining them through the "New Gazeta" and the report of Yashin well supported by the operational information of the denunciation to his combat comrade of the faithful squire Putin and close friend of Kadyrov, General of the Army of Zolotov. Zolotov is actually called the organizer of the murder, and, therefore, Putin can be called the customer. This is a declaration of war without rules and mutual destruction. Especially at the moment when an international investigation of the murder of Nemtsov is being prepared. The enraged Putin reassembled Kadyrov to a new term, as a sign of distrust of his Alma Mater eliminated two Chekist offices and formed his oprichnina of 400,000 fighters who received the right to shoot in the crowd and subordinates to Zolotov personally. And Zolotov was appointed a permanent member of the Security Council, the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU of modern Russia.

All this allows me to characterize the situation that developed under the Kremlin carpet as of April 6, 2016: the country is ruled by the Troika - Putin, Zolotov, Kadyrov - with extraordinary powers. This three rule ... exactly until April 11, when a decree appeared on the presidential site with amendments to the decree of April 5. One of the amendments was knocked out by the stool "constant" from under the feet of the Army General Viktor Zolotov. The newly made member of the Politburo on the sixth day after his appointment defiantly fell into candidates for members of the Politburo. Troubles began to occur with Kadyrov: on April 14, the Buster Dorenko, who was in the bushes at the annual meeting of the leader with the people, asked a tyrant -collection question. The tyrant was forced to mumble: Kadyrov and his father “fought with us in the forests”, and although Kadyrov Jr. has been aware of a lot since then, in some matters he has sometimes made serious mistakes. It was impossible to show Kasyanov on Instagram in an optical sight. Kasyanov had to be shown naked in bed.

With the noise of the 20 thousand Kadyrovsky fighters, they read on April 11 for morning coffee with a pencil in their hands, emphasizing the most liked places, an interview with a certain Zaikin in Novaya Gazeta, under the name "as Putin liquidated Kadyrov’s army." However, however, these fighters will be doomed to wait until they are disbanded, disarm and send them to serve the Far East so that they disappeared without a trace, as it is dreaming of Mr. Zaikin.

Special services, including the Kadyrovskaya "Wild Division", enter the familiar struggle of all against all, in which there is no longer a supreme arbitrator that can create or eliminate the army. The circumcision of the permanent member of Zolotov a few days after his triumphant elevation is a serious loss of face for a person whom Zolotov is designed to protect from all attacks on his supreme power. Now it is clear why the Chekists challenged in February 2015 so boldly and raised the bets in February 2016 so sharply. They have pressure levers, they demonstrated that they can use them effectively. Many of the clinging already, apparently, understand: their train is in fire and they have nowhere else to run.

Andrey Piontkovsky - political expert

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office